Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Week 8 Observations

These are some things that I noticed from watching Week 8's play that you might be able to use to help you going forward:

  • Dallas is finished. Donezo. Kaput. Finito. Cooked. They look like they have literally quit on Wade Phillips, and it's not pretty. The defense isn't tackling, and I don't care what defensive rankings Dallas has: going forward, if you have players that are matched up against the Dallas defense, get them in there. Dallas has mailed this season in, and when defensive players aren't giving max effort, you simply have to play guys going against them. An example of that is Brandon Jackson this week. If you just look at the numbers, it seems like a tough matchup. And the Packers like to pass. But you have to get a RB in there that's actually playing pretty well lately and facing Dallas. Trust me on this one.
  • Jon Kitna is going to feed Dez Bryant targets. Unless you are just loaded at WR, Bryant needs to be in your lineup on a weekly basis. The targets have finally caught up to Dez's enormous upside, and since Dallas' defense has quit, the Cowboy offense is going to be throwing a lot in the second half of games. Congratulations if you exercised patience with Dez through a rough period early in the season.
  • Matt Schaub just isn't playing well. Sometimes a guy's numbers will be down, but he's still playing good football. Schaub isn't. He doesn't look very aware in the pocket, and he's holding onto the ball too long, and his ball isn't coming out with as much zip unless he has a ton of time. I don't see Schaub as a no-doubt-about-it starter anymore, although it's likely he's better than your second option. But if you have a guy like Eli Manning along with Schaub, I might see what you could get in a trade for Schaub, especially since Eli just had his bye week.
  • Arian Foster is totally the real deal. Don't even think about trading him.
  • Darren McFadden is a beast, too. If you could truly get a surefire stud for him, I might consider a trade since Darren comes with some injury risk, but unless you get that true stud, don't trade him. He simply has too much upside every week. He's like Jamaal Charles in that he can take it to the house on any given play, and McFadden isn't sharing carries as much as Charles is.
  • Philip Rivers is throwing for 300 yards a week with no Vincent Jackson, then no Malcom Floyd, and last week he did it with Patrick Crayton as his feature WR and with teams knowing that Antonio Gates is their only proven playmaker. Rivers' accuracy is truly unbelievable and he is a surefire QB1 starter every week, and can never be benched under any circumstances. Just wait until he has V-Jax and Floyd back during the fantasy playoffs.
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick played poorly at Kansas City, but guess what? I'm more convinced than ever now that he is going to hold legit low-end QB1/high-end QB2 status for the rest of the season. Even in a game like this, on the road in a tough place to play and struggling with his accuracy, Fitzy put up nearly 19 points in standard-scoring leagues, aided by the fact that he scrambled for 43 yards. He's averaging 32 yards rushing in his 5 starts, which means that he basically gets you an extra TD pass (in standard scoring leagues) per game based on his scrambling ability. Chan Gailey loves to pass. And thanks to Buffalo's terrible defense, Fitzy is going to be throwing the pigskin around the yard for almost every play of 4th quarters for the Bills. It may not be pretty, but who cares! Fitzy has scored at least 18 fantasy points in all 5 of his starts, and he's actually been between 18 and 23 points in 4 of his 5 starts, which means he's consistent. And consistently good, at that, as a fantasy QB.
  • The Carolina offense might be terrible, but Matt Moore has a legitimate rapport with Steve Smith. No, you should not be starting Moore, but you should have Steverino in your lineups on a weekly basis, unless you are stacked at WR. Carolina's going to be playing from behind most weeks and Smith is going to get a lot of targets; he should be one of those WR's that piles up the garbage time targets and, thus, yards. And you know Smith has the talent to get deep and has the upside for big weeks.
  • It's a complete guess as to who is going to lead the Rams in receiving each week, and I wouldn't feel confident playing any Ram WR until we see some clarity, which we may not ever see. If you are in a deep league and want to stash one, I think Brandon Gibson has the most talent, but until he has a couple of good games in a row I don't see how you can logically feel comfortable playing him. Danny Amendola is still a decent bet in PPR leagues, but other than that you shouldn't even be rostering him.
  • Seattle is just a pathetic road team, and you should probably stay away from all Seattle offensive players in road games, even when Marshawn Lynch is up against one of the worst rush defenses in football like he was against the Raiders last week.
  • Robert Meachem is starting to come on. He's looking to me like he did in the second half of last season, where he was emerging as a co-number one WR along with Colston in that offense. Recall that Meachem then hurt his foot late in the season and wasn't the same for the playoff run or the start of this season. Meachem's athleticism is there, and he's very sure-handed. Now that he's getting more snaps consistently, he has legitimate upside in what is still a great offense, even if it has struggled this season. Meachem warrants WR3 consideration in deep leagues as soon as this week at Carolina, and he's somebody that should not be on fantasy waiver wires at all.
  • Tennessee has a bye in Week 9, but Nate Washington is somebody that should be on fantasy rosters as a high-upside type. Why? Well, Kenny Britt is hurt, and hurt pretty bad. Whenever a head coach says "I don't think he's out for the season", that's ominous. If his hamstring injury--which Britt says he heard a "pop" in--were a day-to-day thing or even a week-to-week thing, don't you think the head coach would say something different? It appears that Britt is going to be out for multiple weeks, and the Titans, after their bye week, get Miami, Washington, Houston, and Jacksonville. It doesn't get much better than that for pass offenses. Teams are loading up the box to stop Chris Johnson, leaving one-on-one matchups for the Titan wideouts, and the Titans are taking a lot of deep shots downfield every week. With Britt out of the picture for possibly all 4 of those games, Washington stands a good chance to pull down some of those bombs.
  • If you still have Kevin Walter on your fantasy team, please get rid of him at the first possible moment. Walter actually received 6 targets last night and did absolutely nothing with them. Yep, he put up a goose-egg. He is averaging less than a single fantasy point in his last 3 games and just 3 points a game in his last 5. There is no reason to own him whatsoever.
  • He's not getting a lot of playing time and he's currently the #4 WR on the Denver depth chart, but Demaryius Thomas has a ton of talent and athleticism. Brandon Lloyd has turned into a legit #1 WR, and that role won't change. But on a Denver team that's 2-6, it's possible that they will want to see Thomas more than Jabar Gaffney opposite Lloyd as the season goes on. Eddie Royal is a great fit as the slot man, of course, and Gaffney would be a good option there too. If you have the roster space, perhaps in a deep league, for a bench flier, I like Thomas. I could see his role increasing exponentially in the final few games.

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