Friday, October 22, 2010

Advice on Kickers? Really. I'm Going There.

You never, ever see analysis on kickers on websites that give their kicker rankings each week. I mean, it's a freaking kicker for goodness sake. That seems to be the general sentiment. But look, kickers can decide weeks and no details should be left unexamined. So leave it to the Fantasy Leprechaun to break down all of the games this week, from a kicker's perspective.

Cleveland @ New Orleans
  • Phil Dawson is a good kicker, but that offense simply doesn't move the ball enough for Dawson to be a reliable fantasy option. Leave him on waiver wires, this and every week.
  • Garrett Hartley is a terrible kicker right now. All you need to do here is use your eyes. I don't know how Hartley made everything in sight during last year's playoff run, but he approaches the ball violently and the ball hooks wildly off his leg often. Even on the kicks he makes, the ball flight off his foot isn't true. Hartley cannot be recommended until he puts at least two accurate games in a row under his belt, and that may not happen. Generally, you want a kicker from an explosive offense, but not here. Stay away.
Jacksonville @ Kansas City
  • Josh Scobee had been money up until last week, so some of you may see his gaudy points-per-game numbers and think he should be started this week. Don't make that mistake. This game sets up as a nightmare scenario for the Jags' offense, with Todd Bouman likely to start at QB. Even if Trent Edwards starts, he's a terrible option as well. Garrard is definitely out. You don't want a kicker whose offense is in a horrible position to move the ball, and that's what you have here this week. If you own Scobee, drop him for somebody else this week.
  • Ryan Succop is an under-the-radar solid option this week. If you throw out Week 1, a game played in a driving rainstorm, Succop has went 8 for 10 on FG's and 9 for 9 on PAT's in his 4 games since, so he's almost averaging double-digit fantasy points in that span. The Chiefs are leading the league in rushing offense and since the Jags' secondary is so pathetic, KC should have no trouble moving the ball this Sunday. Succop could get plenty of chances and is a solid option this week.
Washington @ Chicago
  • The Redskins have given Graham Gano 16 FG tries in 6 games, which is very good, but he's only made 12 of them; not so good. But 3 of Gano's 4 misses have been from 45 yards or more, which is somewhat understandable. You can do better this week, though, than a kicker who is 75% accurate on FG's and who is kicking in a stadium, Soldier Field, that's a tough place for visitors to kick in.
  • Robbie Gould is a good, solid option for owners this week. The 8th-ranked kicker so far, Gould offers owners excellent accuracy (12 for 14 this year, or 85.7%). In fact, Gould's 85.9% career mark is third all-time. Washington's defense has allowed teams to march up and down the field all year, yet they have stiffened somewhat in the red zone, another plus for Gould's potential this week. It's also good for Gould that Jay Cutler is not a very accurate passer in the red zone, leading to third down incompletions and FG tries. Get Gould in lineups this week.
Pittsburgh @ Miami
  • Jeff Reed should be somebody you could rely on, but you can't. On the plus side, his offense moves the ball pretty consistently, a major plus for any kicker in fantasy. However, you can't trust a kicker that is a pathetic 8 for 12 in FG attempts this year. Moving on...
  • Feeling lucky? Dan Carpenter has been on a roller-coaster ride this year, alternating very good games with very bad ones all year. Last week he had 3 field goals and 2 PAT's, and all of the made FG's were from beyond 40 yards, usually worth more in fantasy. This week Miami has to try to move the ball against the Steelers. With so many good options at kicker, I'd pass on Carpenter this week. The guy is a very good kicker, though.
Cincinnati @ Atlanta
  • You can't ignore what Mike Nugent has done so far this season. The strong-legged Nugent was never known as an accurate kicker, but he's an outstanding 12 for 13 on FG's this year. He's made a 54-yarder, so you know the leg strength is still there. Cincinnati, with a good running game and good receiving weapons, will move the ball consistently. And Carson Palmer's inaccuracy means that more drives will stall in the red zone than they should. This week's game is in a dome, always a good thing for kickers. Don't be deterred by the fluky stat that the Falcons are barely allowing fantasy points to opposing kickers. David Akers missed 3 chippies last week against them. Nugent should be in fantasy lineups this week.
  • You also have to keep Matt Bryant rolling. He's the kicker on a team with a good offense that plays in a dome, and he's had at least 8 fantasy points in 5 of his 6 games this year. In fact, he's had double-digit points in 4 of 6 games. The Bengals are not a fearsome defense this year, so get Bryant in there.
St. Louis @ Tampa Bay
  • The Rams have only scored 20 points in their 2 road games this season, and they go back on the road this week. With a rookie QB, even one as good as Sam Bradford, you can't trust the Ram offense to put up a lot of points this week in a road game. As such, you can't use Josh Brown this week. He can only be considered in home games, where the Ram offense is much better and there's a domed environment.
  • Connor Barth is completely hands-off in fantasy, as there are better offenses and better kickers. Just that simple.
Buffalo @ Baltimore
  • Rian Lindell is not a bad kicker, but seriously, you aren't considering any part of the Buffalo offense are you? Especially at a Ravens team that will smell blood in the water this week? Good, I didn't think so.
  • When I first looked at this game, I thought that Billy Cundiff might have been a good bye week option for Nick Folk and Neil Rackers owners. But even in a game that B'more figures to dominate, Cundiff gives me pause. If you want to bank on a kicker that figures to play in a blowout, that's fine, but be warned that Cundiff is a terrible 19 for 26 in FG attempts since becoming the Raven kicker last season. He also doesn't have a strong leg. Still, it's almost impossible to imagine the Ravens not scoring at will on Buffalo, so Cundiff has to be a low-end option in 12-team leagues this week.
San Francicsco @ Carolina
  • Even with the 49er offense coming around a bit, this isn't a spot to use Joe Nedney. It's still a below-average offense, on the road, and the fact is that Nedney has had single-digit fantasy points in 5 of 6 games. Stay away.
  • Carolina's offense has been just that, an offense, so far. Matt Moore and Steve Smith's return might help. But that's no reason to trot John Kasay out there.
Philadelphia @ Tennessee
  • Even though the Philly offense is a high-scoring unit, you can probably do better than a suddenly inaccurate David Green Akers this week. Akers has made 18 PAT's so far, which is nice, but he missed 3 FG's last week and is just 7 of 11 on the year. You also have to wonder how the Eagles will fare at the Titans, a tough place to play. I had Akers in one league and I waived him for Nugent; feel free to search for a better option this week, especially since the Eagles have a bye next week. Might as well get the jump.
  • Rob Bironas is one of the best weekly options there is, and you have to keep him going. Tennessee moves the ball well behind its powerful ground game, but can struggle to score TD's in the red zone, and conservative coach Jeff Fisher will always happily applaud FG's instead of turnovers. Throw in Bironas' incredibly accurate and strong leg, and there's nothing that should keep him out of lineups on a weekly basis.
Arizona @ Seattle
  • Seattle is a really tough place to play, and with a rookie QB starting for the Cardinals, you won't want to roll with Jay Touchy Feely this week. Or almost any other week, for that matter. But hey, Feely does have one of the better nicknames in the league.
  • O-lindo, Ole Ole Ole! Go go go! Ole Ole Ole. Ok folks, sorry for that Ricky Martin moment. Seriously though, even though Seattle plays well at home, you don't want to be trusting your kicker spot to Olindo Mare. The Seattle offense just isn't trusthworthy enough, and neither is Mare's accuracy.
Oakland @ Denver
  • Once Bruce Gradkowski returns to the Raiders, Sebastian Janikowski will be a solid option once again. Usually I'd recommend the strong-legged Raider kicker in a game at Denver, where 55 yard FG's are like 45 yarders for Sea Bass. But the fact is that Kyle Boller...Kyle Boller...might get the start for Oakland this week. And if that's the case, you simply can't trust the Raiders to move the ball at all, despite their rushing attack. Ideally, you'll want to wait until Gradkowski returns before returning Sea Bass to your lineup. That said, if your league awards more points for longer field goals, there's a good chance Janikowski gets a shot at a 50+ yarder this week, and maybe two. If your league is like that, I don't have issue with starting him. But if Boller's starting...don't say I didn't warn you.
  • Matt Prater should definitely be in fantasy lineups this week. Always a good play at home, as Prater's leg is almost as strong as Janikowski's, this week Prater is an even better play than usual based on the matchup. The Broncos should have no trouble moving the ball on Sunday against a bad Raider defense, so it's all systems go for Prater this week.
New England @ San Diego
  • Stephen Gostkowski missed 3 of his first 4 FG attempts this year, causing some concern. But he's back on the beam, having scored double-digit fantasy points in 3 straight games, and this week the still-powerful New England offense gets a game in perfect weather, a good thing for kickers. In what projects to be a high-scoring game and with his early-season misses looking like an aberration, confidently get Gostkowski rolling this week, and probably from here on out.
  • Nate Kaeding has a groin injury and is likely going to be out for multiple weeks. Kaeding was usually a reliable option in a powerful offense, and the Chargers signed Kris Brown, formerly of the Texans, to kick in Kaeding's stead. But considering that Brown lost his job due to, well, sucking last year, you can do better.
Minnesota @ Green Bay
  • Ryan Longwell has been a major disappoint for fantasy owners this year, as the preseason top-3 kicker pick is currently the 32nd-ranked fantasy kicker. Yep, 32nd. He hasn't made more than 1 FG in any game this season or scored more than 6 points in any game. The safest advice here would be to pass on Longwell. But my gut tells me that Longwell's early season lack of scoring is a fluke more than anything else. It's not like Longwell is missing FG's; he just isn't getting the chances. But Minnesota's offense is coming around, and in Favre Bowl 3, a game that figures to be high-scoring, I really think Longwell will post a good game for fantasy owners this week. Nick Folk owners, don't be afraid to use Longwell.
  • Mason Crosby should certainly be in lineups this week. Despite missing 3 FG's so far on the year, Green Bay is providing Crosby with 2 FG attempts per game, and he's made 16 PAT's as well. It also should be noted that 2 of Crosby's 3 misses have been from long range, including a 53-yarder at the end of regulation 2 weeks ago. Crosby's strong leg helps, and as I mentioned, this game figures to be high-scoring. With double-digit points in 4 of his 6 games, including the last 2, Crosby is a solid option.
New York Giants @ Dallas
  • Despite being the kicker on a good offense, and in a game this week that figures to be high-scoring, it's tough to recommend Lawrence Tynes. The guy has a strong leg, but is terribly inaccurate. Just 5 out of 8 on FG tries this year, Tynes is also coming off an ankle injury, which forced him to miss last week's game. The ankle problem coupled with his general suck-factor should be more than enough to convince fantasy owners to steer clear of Tynes.
  • It's also tough to recommend Dallas kicker David Buehler, despite his strong leg and the fact he's scored double-digit fantasy points in 3 of 5 games. The fact is that he's inaccurate (just 6 out of 9), and the coaches clearly don't trust him in pressure spots (when it's 4th down and, say, 2 yards to go from the 30-yard-line, Dallas typically goes for it). Despite the great Dallas offense, you can do better than Buehler.

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