Saturday Notes

With Jimmy Rollins already drawing my wrath, here are some other things I took from today's play, of course from a fantasy perspective...

• What happened to you, Manny Parra? On May 17, you tossed your fourth straight quality start in a row and lowered your ERA to 4.57. After that, you have simply imploded. You got shellacked today, allowing 6 runs and retiring only 5 batters before being yanked. Your ERA is now 7.52, and your 1.92 WHIP is almost unconscionable. I can't imagine Parra is being started in any mixed league formats right now, but if you were holding onto Parra as bench insurance, for goodness sake, feel free to dump him. And as for NL-only leaguers that own Parra, the news that he is being demoted to AAA after this start should be welcomed. Parra has talent, folks, but he is most certainly not getting results right now. He will inevitably get another chance later in the season, so don't completely forget about him, and the next paragraph might tell you why I say that.

• Jose Contreras had a Manny Parra-like start to his season, yet he is the one that was the opposing pitcher against Parra today and he has turned in two brilliant starts since being banished to the minors. This is why I say that sometimes a pitcher can turn it around after a stint away from the big leagues (Ricky Nolasco looks like he may have turned things around too, for example). Contreras went 8 outstanding innings today against a powerful Brewer lineup, allowing 2 harmless hits and striking out eight. He has not allowed a run in 16 innings since returning to the rotation, and he's given up a mere three hits in those 16 innings. His ERA when he got sent down to the minors on May 8 was 8.19, and after 16 scoreless innings it now stands at 5.32. He's obviously a worthwhile pickup in AL-only leagues, and, dare I say it, a possible mixed league pickup as well. I'd hold off on grabbing him in shallow mixed leagues, but those that are in a position to roll the dice certainly can give him a try.
  

• I thought it was worth pointing out that with a scoreless inning today (as mentioned, the Brewers got blown out so this was just an appearance to get work in), Trevor Hoffman has started the season with 19 innings of shutout baseball. Remarkable. I expect bumps in the road later, but it's obvious Hoffman is healthy and considering that the Brewers are a solid team, he has to be viewed as a very solid #2 closer going forward. And his 16 K's in 19 innings aren't terrible, either. Bravo, Trevor.
  

• Troy Tulowitzki is not meeting expectations so far this season, but don't let that blind you from noticing that in the past week, the Long Beach State product has hit .455 with 3 homers, 5 RBI, 3 stolen bases, and 7 runs scored. The talent is there for Tulowitzki, and with shortstop being so weak, you might want to take a look and see if he is available in your league (he's owned in 76% of Yahoo leagues). He was 1-for-3 today with a stolen base, and his 7 steals already tie him for his career high. He isn't a particularly good base-stealer (he's been caught 5 times this season and for his career, he has been successful just one more time than he's been thrown out), but there's no question that he is running more this season, and that's always good news for fantasy purposes. He's on pace for close to a 20-20 season, and if he continues to hit, he'll be one of the better SS values from this point on. I'd target him in trades if you can get him as a buy-low because his year-to-date totals aren't good, and, again, if he's out there on your league's waiver wire, he's a recommended add.

• While the Mets pounded out 17 hits in their win at Bandbox Field today against the Yankees, hitting achievements at that park aren't especially noteworthy. Instead, what I took from this game from a fantasy perspective was the solid outing of Fernando Nieve. Nieve, who will be 27 next month, tossed 96 1/3 innings for the Astros in 2006, making 11 starts and compiling a respectable 4.20 ERA. But he missed all of 2007 with injuries, and only pitched 10 2/3 innings for the Astros last year. Given a chance to start for the Mets today, Nieve held the Yankees to 2 runs in 6 2/3 innings, and while the 2 K's aren't impressive, the 4 hits and 2 walks allowed most definitely are. I thought his low-90's fastball looked live, with good movement. You can't overrate a guy with his injury history after just one start, but I would keep an eye on him in NL-only leagues. Remember, if he sticks in the Met rotation, he would be pitching on a solid team in a pitcher's ballpark.

• Zach Duke continues to defy the odds, perhaps, with great pitching. Duke hurled 8 innings to beat the Tigers today, allowing 3 runs on just 6 hits and a walk (with 3 K's). His ERA is now 3.10, and I never would have believed that Duke could have an ERA of right around 3 past June 1. Most improbable, to me, is that Duke isn't giving up a lot of hits; just 88 in 93 innings now. Combined with his always-low walk totals, Duke is now holding a super 1.17 WHIP (coming into the season, his career WHIP was just about 1.50). I'm going to continue to tout Duke as a sell-high candidate, because I just think an inevitable rough patch is coming. Keep in mind that a pitcher with such low strikeout totals (47 K's in 93 innings) almost has to have a low ERA and WHIP in order to be worth starting in mixed leagues. Duke has a 3.10 ERA and 1.17 WHIP right now, but if he were to post a 4.25 ERA and 1.30 WHIP from this point on, and continues to strike out 1 batter per 2 innings, he won't be worth owning in mixed leagues. Again, my advice is to sell high.

Memo To Charlie Manuel

OK Charlie, I can't take this anymore. You need to get Jimmy Rollins out of the leadoff spot. Not soon, not in a couple of games...NOW!!! I honestly don't understand the manner in which you are handling him.

Look, Charlie, Rollins has been a piece of crap this season while batting leadoff. It's just that simple. Every game seems like an 0-for-4. And what's worse, you keep falling into the same pattern. Rollins stinks it up for a few weeks in a row, and then you drop him down in the batting order. Rollins then gets some hits, and immediately you restore him into the leadoff spot. The first time you did it, I could understand it. But this week, when you dropped Rollins down into the sixth spot in the order and he collected 5 hits in two games, I begged, pleaded, and implored you to keep him there for a while. Leave well enough alone, I was saying. And you put him back in the leadoff spot after those two games. What has Rollins done since Wednesday, when you put him back into the leadoff role? Rollins has gone 1-for-20. One for freaking twenty! In his last 11 games, Rollins has 8 hits, and 5 of them were in that two-game stretch where he was the #6 hitter.

Rollins is your worst everyday hitter right now, Charlie, and nobody else is even in the discussion. I don't know why, but he is. The .221 batting average is one thing (hey, a guy like Carlos Pena shows that you can give value to your fantasy owners with a low average), but the .326 slugging percentage and .582 OPS are downright pathetic. If moving him down in the order is the only way to get him motivated to hit, then you need to do it and leave him the hell there. And for two weeks this time, not two days. And then if he doesn't hit from the sixth spot, move him to seventh. And then eighth, if necessary.

Trust me, Charlie. I know what I'm talking about. I guarantee you that if you do this, it will work. Now listen to me this time!

Seriously, I know you are frustrated, Rollins owners. As a Rollins owner, I know that I can't take it anymore, and I am going to pick up the best available second baseman or shortstop on the waiver wire, and play Alexei Ramirez at whichever position is left, and bench Rollins. I actually did that earlier in the year, and I'm going to do it again. Just don't trade him, Rollins owners, because you know that as soon as you do that, dude will start to hit and you'll feel like you just went for a colonoscopy. And it's a long season, so he is bound to get hot at some point (I think). Don't cut ties with the guy, but feel free to sit him down for a while.

Pitching Injury Trifecta

It was a tough day yesterday for three top-of-the-line hurlers. The news was not good on Jake Peavy, Roy Halladay, and Erik Bedard, to varying degrees. Let's discuss.

First, the most serious injury is to Padres' ace Jake Peavy. It looked like Peavy was over his ankle issues in his last start--one in which he went 7 innings of 2-run ball with 8 K's--but the team announced that Peavy is going to be shelved for quite a while. Although the Fathers are only saying that he will be out "for a month", that's actually the point that Peavy is going to have his ankle re-evaluated. A team trainer has already speculated that Peavy could be out 2-3 months, and that would be a big loss for fantasy owners, obviously. All you can do, as a Peavy owner, is stash him on the DL and hope that he can contribute for you down the stretch. In real baseball, this means that the Padres are going to be hard-pressed to trade Peavy this season. But on the good side for you, the fantasy owner, the Padres will definitely want to get him back out there for at least a few starts before the season ends. If the Padres trade Peavy in the offseason, any team that deals for Peavy will want to see that he is healthy and throwing well. Otherwise, the Padres won't get a great return for the ace.

Next, the good Doc, Roy Halladay, had to leave his start against the Marlins after just 3 innings with a groin injury. Halladay was going for his MLB-leading 12th win, and had given up just one run before departing (he ended up with a no-decision). I suppose the good news here is that the injury is not arm-related, but big pitchers like Halladay depend on those tree-trunks that they call legs to push off, so you know that the Blue Jays will not run Halladay back out there until their meal ticket is fully healed. It doesn't appear that the injury is a serious one, but these things can linger, so we'll just have to see. Manager Cito Gaston has already said that it's very likely that Halladay won't be able to make his next start, and as a Halladay owner, I'd be thrilled if he misses just the one start and then comes back without missing a beat. Halladay owners should plan on not having the good Doc available next week.

Finally, Erik Bedard was not able to make his scheduled start in Colorado today, being replaced by Brandon Morrow (good luck at Coors Field, Brandon). This is the second time this year that Bedard has had his spot in the rotation skipped. (In May he missed a start due to groin tightness and he missed this start due to shoulder discomfort.) The team insists that this move is more precautionary than anything else, and that he could pitch if he absolutely had to. Instead, Bedard will next go on June 19 at home against Arizona. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but could the team have withheld Bedard from a road game at Coors Field (and made his next start a cozy one against the weak-hitting D'backs at Safeco Field) in order to keep his ERA as low as possible, so that he appears more attractive as a trade chip? That's my theory, and I'm sticking to it. Bedard owners should feel comfortable going with him next week.

Random Thoughts

I figured that I should post some thoughts before the Laker game tonight, because if they lose I will not be in a very good mood. So here goes...

• How is it that I know Jimmy Rollins better than you do, Charlie Manuel? I mean, I know you skippered your club to a World Series title last year, but come on now. I told you that Rollins needed to be kept in the sixth spot in the batting order for a while, because whenever J-Roll gets embarrassed, he hits. But you just had to go and restore him to the leadoff spot last night, didn't you? How did that work out for you, Charlie? Class, all at once now...J-Roll went 0-for-5. A two-game sabbatical to the #6 hole is not what Rollins needs, Charlie. He needs a two-week banishment, at least. As a Rollins owner in one league, I'd actually prefer that he hit sixth right now. In the meantime, I suppose I'll just suffer along with his miserable leadoff batting lines.
  

• Even with all the potential he has, I've (sadly) come to the conclusion that Clayton Kershaw simply cannot be trusted in mixed leagues, even shallow ones. There's always the chance that he could throw a gem--and he's still very hard to hit--but his inability to throw strikes means that he just can't get deep into games, even when he isn't allowing a lot of runs. His 4.50 ERA and 1.38 WHIP actually aren't terrible, and his 62 K's in 64 IP are good, but 64 IP in 12 starts means that he averages barely over 5 innings per start. He has pitched more than 5 1/3 innings in just 4 of his 12 starts, and when you do that, you simply don't give yourself a good chance to record victories. I know that you generally don't want to try to predict wins and losses, but if you know that the ERA and WHIP aren't anything special and the chances for wins are lessened, you can't roll with a pitcher like that. I have no problem at all with rostering Kershaw, due to the enormous potential, but I would keep him reserved for the time being, until he put together some sort of a consistent streak. Kershaw will be very special in time, but the time isn't right now.

• I haven't mentioned him in a while, but the Franklin Mint continues to roll along. Ryan Franklin picked up his 14th save of the year earlier today at Florida, going 1 2/3 innings to do it. No matter that he scattered 3 hits; I'll always give props to a save of more than 3 outs. Franklin is now the proud holder of a 1.14 ERA, a batting-average-against of just .174, a sparkling 0.85 WHIP, and just one blown save all year. He's not a strikeout closer (17 K's in 23 2/3 innings now), but with that type of efficiency, his owners aren't complaining. His numbers won't stay this good all year, but I see no reason that Franklin can't be an upper-level #2 closer from here on out. I see him as a version of Matt Capps from last year, except that Franklin's team is a contender, so he will record more saves.

• Matt Capps appears safe to trust again in mixed leagues. On May 18, Capps had a ghastly 7.62 ERA, but after picking up his 15th save of the year today (and fifth of June already), Capps has lowered his ERA to 5.23. He has not blown a save since May 15, and he actually only has two blown saves all year. He gave up 7 of the 12 earned runs he has allowed on the season in those 2 blown saves, which is why his ERA is so inflated. It looks like Capps is over the elbow issues that were hampering him earlier in the season, and he should be a pretty decent play as a #2 closer going forward.

• Maybe Andy LaRoche can be a useful major league third baseman, after all. I'm still not convinced based on one month of great play, but hey, it's certainly something to be positive about. LaRoche had failed miserably whenever he got at-bats with the Dodgers, he failed miserably last year after the trade to the Pirates, and he had a terrible April this season out of the gates. But after a 2-hit, 2-RBI game today--the two-run single was the winning margin in the game, also--LaRoche finds himself hitting a very solid .298, and his .784 OPS isn't terrible by any means. It would be nice if LaRoche could hit for more power (he has just two homers on the year), but again, considering that LaRoche looked hopeless up until a month ago, it's a start. Coming into today, over the last month, LaRoche was hitting .333 with 16 RBI, and that certainly holds NL-only league value.

Tuesday Tidbits

With the Brad Lidge situation already mentioned, let's get to some other thoughts of the day...

• After a cold May, Andre Ethier has begun June on a tear. Ethier slammed two home runs tonight (giving him 11 on the season), and this marks the second game out of the last three that Ethier has done that. He has five homers in June already. His batting average had dipped to around .250 with the brutal May showing, but after tonight it is back up to .280, plenty acceptable. Ethier's hot, so make sure you get him into your lineup in any format.

• Justin Upton was surprisingly back in the lineup tonight, pleasing his owners for sure. Even though he went 0-for-4, he did draw a walk and score a run, and the most important thing is that his shoulder was healthy enough for him to play after injuring it over the weekend. It is unbelievably unlikely that the D'backs would risk any type of injury to their 21-year-old star--particularly when they are so far back in the standings--so I'd feel fairly confident in inserting Upton back into your fantasy lineups.
  

• Matt Cain is showing why you can never predict a pitcher's won-loss record from year-to-year. Up until this season, Cain had been the victim of horrible run support in his young career, usually finishing with terrible records yet posting ERA's in the mid-to-upper 3's. But this season, the Gigantes have been scoring runs for him; tonight, despite allowing 4 runs in 6 1/3 innings, Cain picked up his NL-tying 8th win of the year. To be sure, Cain is deserving of having 8 wins considering that his ERA is just 2.55, but Dan Haren is 4-4 with an ERA significantly lower than that. You just can't predict these type of things, and it's another example of why you should look toward other stats when trying to predict pitching performance.
  

• I had suggested that Miguel Cabrera could be a possibility for shallow mixed league owners to bench while he plays through a hamstring injury, and through 9 innings today he was 0-for-4, which meant he was 0-for-his-hamstring-injury. But then Cabrera stepped up and hit a solo homer leading off the 10th inning, the winning margin in a 7-6 Tiger victory. I still don't think Cabrera is close to 100%, and I still think fantasy owners can consider benching him if you have a guy like Todd Helton ready to step in, but in most formats, certainly, you have to roll with Cabrera.

• Cubs GM Jim Hendry has made some questionable moves, but signing Ted Lilly certainly has not been one of them. Lilly has been excellent as a Cub (and healthy), and after a bit of a slow start this year, Lilly has really gotten things rolling lately. He threw shutout baseball over 6 2/3 innings today for his seventh win of the season, and Lilly has allowed only two runs in his last three starts. With the recent surge, Lilly's ERA is down to an even 3. In 78 innings, Lilly is striking out 3 more batters than he's walking (63 K's against just 20 walks), and he has a sterling 1.05 WHIP. Claude Monet would probably have a soft spot for a guy named Lilly, and obviously, those that own Lilly are quite happy that they do. He's a rock-solid mixed league starter.

• Mark DeRosa's hitting line doesn't look like anything spectacular, at .267/.332/.449 thus far. But with a grand slam home run tonight, DeRosa now has 42 RBI on the year, along with 10 homers. And most people probably don't realize he has scored 38 runs, too. Roto leaguers realize the value that DeRosa provides, and he is on a pace to hit 27 homers, have 113 RBI, and score 103 runs. A 30/100/100 player is a very valuable player in fantasy baseball, and DeRosa is flying-under-the-radar, probably because of the aforementioned hitting line. The subject of so many trade rumors, though, remember that if DeRosa gets traded to a contender, it's possible he could see a decrease in at-bats, at least slightly. For that reason, there's nothing wrong with seeing what DeRosa could fetch in a trade (a trade in your fantasy league, I mean). If you think you could get equal value, go ahead and make a deal.
  

• Remember when Josh Beckett got rocked in an April 30 start and his ERA stood at 7.22? Me either. (OK, that's a lie, because I just looked it up.) Well, all Beckett has done is toss seven straight quality starts since then, and his ERA has gone down in each of the seven. The latest was a superlative effort against the Yankees tonight in Fenway Park, as he gave up just one hit in 6 shutout innings. Beckett's ERA is all the way down to 3.77 now, and in 76 1/3 innings on the season he has 76 strikeouts. His record is 7-2, and his WHIP is down to a respectable 1.30. I hope you didn't panic and waive Beckett when he had a bad first month. On the flip side, to those of you that bought low on him, kudos. He's a great option going forward, just like his rotation mate, Jon Lester.

• Jered Weaver is shining like he did in his rookie season. Perhaps driven by the terrible death of his good friend Nick Adenhart, Weaver is pitching like a fantasy ace this season. Weaver has been harder to hit this year, with 69 K's in 81 2/3 innings, and his ERA (2.31) and WHIP (1.04) are superb. He bested the Rays tonight to move to 6-2, allowing two runs in 6 innings (which raised his ERA just a tick). I don't think Weaver will maintain numbers quite this good, but I do think the ability--and motivation--is there for Weaver to be a rock-solid mixed league starter all year.
  

• Maybe Jimmy Rollins just needs a kick in the ass to actually play well. Whenever Rollins has been the leadoff man this season, he's basically stunk it up, as his fantasy owners know all too well. Earlier in the year, Charlie Manuel dropped him down to the fifth spot in the order, and Rollins actually had a couple of good games. So Manuel re-inserted Rollins into the leadoff role, and he went right back to bad-to-mediocre hitting. Manuel dropped Rollins into the sixth spot in the order yesterday, and what has Rollins done? Just go 5-for-8 with 2 runs, a homer, and 2 RBI. Charlie, if you can hear me, listen up: keep Rollins batting sixth for a while! If it takes Rollins getting embarrassed in order to get him going, I'm all for it. Just keep him hitting lower in the order for a while. I implore you. Seriously, for those that own Rollins, I still say you have to be patient. You're not going to get anything close to fair value in a trade, and Rollins plays a position that has a dearth of attractive options. He's still a potential lottery ticket going forward, so you should hold on to the ticket and hope you can cash it out.

• Ben Zobrist, in the loss to the Angels, hit his 12th home run of the season. His OPS is 1.094. Seriously, what is going on here? This can't last...can it? I like him as a sell-high, but most people are probably skeptical, like I am, so you probably can't get much for him in a trade. But hey, maybe you can try to trade him to a big Rays fan in your fantasy league. Assuming that isn't something you can do, though, the best course of action is to just enjoy this ridiculously hot play while you can. Who knows, maybe Zobrist will be an amazing surprise this season.

• David Wright hit a home run for the first time in 100 at-bats tonight, yet his fantasy owners can't be incredibly disappointed in his overall play. Despite the fact that Wright has a mere four home runs on the season, he is the 20th-ranked player in Yahoo leagues. After all, the guy is now hitting a robust .348, with 14 stolen bases and 35 RBI and 37 runs scored. It seems as if Wright knows he needs to run more often on the basepaths to keep his fantasy owners happy, and as an owner of Wright myself, I can say thank you David. There is no question that Citi Field is going to be a deterrent to Wright's power numbers, but at the same time I expect him to heat up a bit in the power department, and a 30-steal season is quite likely. And when Jose Reyes is able to come back, Wright's RBI totals will improve. I had Wright as the #3 option on draft day before the season, and I would still have him as a certain top-10 option going forward, maybe even top-5 (Citi Field really has been a negative for hitters, much more so than I would have anticipated). Before the season I was thinking of something like .315-30-120 with 20 steals...now I'd think maybe .320-22-108 with 35 steals.
  

Lidge To DL

Well, well, well. Sometimes, I make myself happy when I get something so freaking spot on. This is what I wrote on Saturday night...

What is going on with Brad Lidge? He blew his second save in as many days today (though, to be fair, his blown save last night was Pedro Feliz's fault), and now has a whopping six blown saves on the season. The Phillies still have a 32-22 record and lead the NL East, so it hasn't cost them horribly, but it's getting really close to the point where Charlie Manuel is going to have to remove him from the closer role, at least for a mental break. (This could be a situation where the team just puts Lidge on the DL for a while, so that he officially doesn't lose the closer role, but, rather, is "injured" and unvailable.) Ryan Madson, who is dominating, simply has to be owned in NL-only formats and even in some mixed league formats, too.

And guess what? The Phillies just placed Lidge on the DL today, with continuing pain in his right knee. There's no doubt that Lidge will be given another chance to come back and close out games, but if he continues to blow saves, and if Ryan Madson is slamming the door shut when he is filling in for Lidge, the team basically has a built-in excuse to keep Lidge on the shelf. There's always a chance that Madson could end up as the Phillies' closer going forward, and he should do a fine job when he is in there filling in for Lidge. He should be owned in all leagues right now, at the absolute least for the next 15 days.

Monday Musings

Some thoughts for your reading pleasure after a light day and night on the diamond...

• Quick, raise your hands, how many of you thought that Jason Marquis would have 8 wins before the All-Star Break? Okay, now that nobody put their hands up, I can get to writing that Marquis ran his record to 8-4 today after besting the Cardinals with 6 2/3 innings of two-run ball. Marquis' ERA is actually a very respectable 3.98, as well. If you think that he will end the season with an ERA of under 4, however, you are probably smoking the hippie lettuce (this assuming Marquis doesn't get injured before the inevitable funk happens). If you can get something at all for Marquis via trade, explore your options, because he is more likely to blow up than Mike Matusow.
  

• Miguel Cabrera still hasn't been able to collect a single hit since he injured his hamstring, and he went 0-for-7 in the two games he played in today against the White Sox. You might think that it's a good sign that he was able to start both games, but Cabrera is not even close to 100 percent right now. It's doubtful that you are in a position to sit Cabrera if he is playing, but if you are in a shallow mixed league and have viable bench options, I wouldn't have a problem with sitting him for a little while. I just don't think he's right, and he may need to sit for a few days for his leg to allow for him to drive the ball. He looks like his swing is just all arms up there right now. You're in first place, Jim Leyland. Let the man rest for a few days.
  

• Alexei Ramirez is slowly but surely heating up at the dish. For the first time in what seems like the entire season, Ramirez now has his average up over .250 after going 5-for-9 with 3 runs and an RBI (on his fifth HR of the year) in the doubleheader today. Actually, his average now sits at .261, which is hardly embarrassing. I hope you had patience with him, because his talent is now coming to the forefront. Ramirez has actually been the 7th-best fantasy SS in Yahoo leagues in the last month, and if you break it down further, he's the 3rd-best if you only count everyday shortstops. He failed to get down a bunt in the 8th inning of the first game, but that's not what the guy's skill set is (you might want to take note of that, Ozzie Guillen). Start Ramirez with confidence going forward.

• There were four more Yankee home runs in Bandbox Field tonight, with Mark Teixeira, Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, and Nick Swisher each going yard once. You are a crazy person if you don't start your Yankees in their home games. Seriously. And if in doubt with visiting players, you should give them the nod and start them, too. Especially switch-hitters or lefties. Watching games there almost makes me want to grab a bat and see what I could do.
  

• Break up the Oakland Athletics! The A's have now won seven games in a row after Josh Outman ran his record to 4-0 tonight by tossing 6 innings and allowing 3 runs (on just 4 hits and 2 walks, while fanning 7 batters). Outman's ERA went up a bit, but still stands at a very solid 3.17, and this marked the seventh time in eight starts that Outman has tossed a quality start. That kind of consistency deserves a spot on mixed league staffs, and he's only owned in 24% of Yahoo leagues. That should change, people. Along with the 4-0 record and 3.17 ERA, Outman has 49 K's in 59 2/3 innings, along with an outstanding 1.17 WHIP. Yes, he's young, but you have to recognize a hot pitcher when you see one. I picked up Randy Wells a week ago in one league, and although I'm certainly not regretting that move, Outman is basically pitching like Wells, except Outman is actually recording victories (while the Cub bullpen keeps squandering wins for Wells).
  

• Speaking of the A's, it's pretty obvious that Andrew Bailey is the clear-cut closer, and that Brad Ziegler will pitch in a setup role going forward. It's best for the team, and it's also best for fantasy owners. Bailey has basically done what many observers thought Joey Devine would do before the season started, and that's wrestle the closer gig away from Ziegler. Nobody should be shocked; as I've written a few times, Ziegler simply doesn't profile to be a closer. Bailey has rock-solid stuff (he's whiffed 44 batters in 37 1/3 innings), and should be viewed as a pretty decent #2 closer going forward. I don't expect him to sustain the exceptional numbers he's putting up so far (1.93 ERA and 0.91 WHIP to go along with 4 wins and 5 saves), because you have to figure that the young hurler will have some bumps in the road, but I think he's legit and likely to hold the job for the rest of the year. Only owned in 59% of Yahoo leagues, there is opportunity in plenty of leagues for you to grab Bailey. He's the 38th-ranked pitcher in Yahoo formats, for crying out loud! He has to be owned in all formats.

• If Jake Peavy had struggled tonight, it would have been time to worry, but the right-hander threw 7 innings for a win against a horrible Arizona lineup, allowing just 2 earned runs and striking out 8 batters. I say that it was a horrible lineup he was facing because, well, Arizona's offense isn't that good to begin with, and the D'backs didn't have either of their two best hitters in the starting lineup (Justin Upton due to tweaking his shoulder, and Mark Reynolds for some reason, though he did appear as a pinch-hitter). The big thing tonight was that Peavy was fine physically, so you should have confidence starting him going forward.

• There's Zack Greinke, and then on the opposite end of the spectrum, we have Jon Garland. I really, really hope you don't own him, as he is the perfect example of how a bad pitcher can hurt your fantasy squad. You'd be better off not starting anybody in a roster slot instead of using Garland, and I am not joking when I say that. Garland gave up 6 runs in 6 2/3 innings against a weak San Diego lineup tonight, and this was at PETCO Park, no less. He walked Adrian Gonzalez three times (he had 5 walks in total), and he allowed Kevin Kouzmanoff, he of the .224 average and .619 OPS, to make him pay (Kouzmanoff drove in 4 of the 6 runs). You might want to cover your eyes for this, but here is what Garland has done this season so far: 5.61 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 69 IP, 28 K, 32 BB. Despite the fact that Garland has actually recorded six quality starts so far, he's a disaster because he doesn't strike out anybody, and his stuff is so bad that when he gets hit, he just gets lit up. His Yahoo ranking--wait for it--is 1,259. And that's just among pitchers. For some perspective on that, Jason Schmidt's ranking is 552.
  

Saturday Notes

Here's what the Fantasy Leprechaun has on the brain, on a Saturday that saw The Detroit Red Wings inch closer to yet another Stanley Cup...

• I've been saying that Jon Lester has been pitching fine and has simply been the unfortunate sufferer of some bad luck, and in his last two starts Lester has been dominant. The lefty flirted with perfection tonight, and ended up with a complete game victory, allowing just one run on 2 hits, while striking out 11 batters. His ERA is now down to 5.09, and I expect that number to continue to shrink while Lester is one of the best pitchers in the game for the last 4 months of the season.

• What is going on with Brad Lidge? He blew his second save in as many days today (though, to be fair, his blown save last night was Pedro Feliz's fault), and now has a whopping six blown saves on the season. The Phillies still have a 32-22 record and lead the NL East, so it hasn't cost them horribly, but it's getting really close to the point where Charlie Manuel is going to have to remove him from the closer role, at least for a mental break. (This could be a situation where the team just puts Lidge on the DL for a while, so that he officially doesn't lose the closer role, but, rather, is "injured" and unvailable.) Ryan Madson, who is dominating, simply has to be owned in NL-only formats and even in some mixed league formats, too.
  

• He didn't get the win today, but David Price allowed just one earned run in 5 2/3 innings at Bandbox Field against the Yankees, taking a no-decision. Anytime you can do that at that Little League field, you've done something. After a shaky first outing, Price has responded nicely and now holds a 2.45 ERA. It should be interesting to see what the Rays do when Scott Kazmir returns to health, assuming he does this season. Jeff Niemann has actually come on lately, and he's outpitching Andy Sonnanstine, the presumptive fourth starter. They couldn't possibly send Price back down, could they? (They better not!)

• Speaking of the Yankees, and the absurd factor that their home ballpark is playing, check out the following slugging percentage numbers. Johnny Damon, with a career .438 mark, is slugging .539 this season. Mark Teixeira, with a career .544 mark, is at .618 this season. Jorge Posada? Career mark of .480, and is at .606 this year. Robinson Cano? Career mark of .470, and is at .489 this year. Nick Swisher? Career mark of .456, and is at .512 this year. What about Melky Cabrera? Career mark of .383, and is at .474 this year. Even Hideki Matsui, hitting with two shredded knees, has a slugging mark one point higher than his career numbers (career at .478, this year at .479; and consider that last year Matsui slugged only .424). The park is helping left-handed hitters or switch hitters (like Teixeira and Posada) enormously, and this is something that you should remember going into fantasy drafts and auctions next season, provided that the team doesn't move the fences back. Even Derek Jeter, who, like Matsui, has similar slugging percentage numbers this year as opposed to the rest of his career, has raised his slugging percentage 54 points from last season. The only member of the Yankee lineup that has a lower slugging percentage this year than he did last year is Alex Rodriguez, and he has the excuse of playing on a bad hip.
  

• What in the name of Ben Zobrist has gotten into Ben Zobrist? Zobrist, now an everyday player in the wake of the Iwamura and Bartlett injuries, hit his 11th homer of the season today (at Bandbox Field, imagine that), and added a triple, for good measure. Zobrist's battling line is now an absurdly good .304-.418-.681, and while that won't continue, he's certainly a must-start in all formats right now while he's this hot, especially in the middle infield positions. If you can sell high, feel free, but there's nothing wrong with enjoying a hot streak.
  

• Matt Lindstrom owners have to be gripping right about now. Summoned for a save chance today against the Giants--the easiest type of save, since it was a 5-2 game--Manager Fredi Gonzalez yanked Lindstrom with 2 outs and the bases loaded, despite the fact that no runs had scored in the inning to that point. Sure, Lindstrom had given up a hit and two walks, but if your manager is going to take you out with one out to go and you haven't given up a run yet and you lead by three runs, and the hitter coming up is right-handed, let's just say your grip on the job can't be too secure. Leo Nunez came in and allowed a two-run single (both runs charged to Lindstrom, of course), but then got the final out for his second save of the season. Nunez is not nearly as good as a guy like Ryan Madson, but he still is a must-own in NL only leagues at this point. Lindstrom's ERA is now over 6 and this move today makes it blatantly obvious that Gonzalez doesn't trust him. At all.

• Gavin Floyd signed that big-money extension that ensured financial security for the rest of his life as the season began, and he proceeded to pitch like Raymond Floyd would after that. Don't look now, though, but Floyd has rebounded quite nicely in his last 4 outings. Floyd pitched into the 7th inning today, striking out 7 and giving up just one earned run, while improving his record to 4-5. His overall numbers still aren't good, but you have to be thinking in terms of what he can do for you going forward, as a fantasy owner. Floyd is hot right now, and warrants a pickup in most mixed leagues (he's owned in 46% of Yahoo leagues at the moment). What are his numbers in his last 4 starts? Over 29 2/3 innings, Floyd has allowed just 6 earned runs, while striking out 31 batters against just 8 walks. He has lowered his ERA from a ghastly 7.71 to his current mark of 5.35, too.

• Nick Blackburn is doing his best Chien-Ming Wang imitation, circa 2007. Blackburn continues to pitch well in real baseball and give his owners solid innings in terms of his ERA, but doesn't strike out anybody and his WHIP is just decent, not great. Blackburn took a no-decision today despite pitching 7 innings of one-run ball, on 6 hits and a walk. He struck out just one, and now has just 34 K's in 76 1/3 innings. The low strikeout rate makes it virtually impossible for me to recommend Blackburn in all but the deepest of mixed leagues, but he's a very solid AL-only option thanks to his 3.30 ERA, 5-2 record, and 1.32 WHIP. I'd view Blackburn as a poor man's Kevin Slowey; Slowey is much more owned thanks to his 8-1 record and 49 K's, but they do pitch similarly, throwing strikes and letting the defense do its job.
  

• Edwin Jackson is apparently on a mission to show the Rays that they made a huge mistake in trading him away. The Rays, with great depth in their rotation, figured to move either Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine in the offseason. It's debatable if they could have received a player like Matt Joyce as a return for Sonnanstine, but it's my opinion that the Rays made a mistake here. Sonnanstine is a pitcher that quite simply isn't that good and will struggle to keep his ERA under 5 most seasons, while Jackson still had considerable upside at just 25 years old. Jackson tossed a complete-game victory against the Angels today, allowing just one run while striking out 5 batters. Jackson's numbers are probably not sustainable (he now has a 2.16 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP), but nonetheless he has the stuff to remain a very solid mixed league starter. If you can sell very high here, feel free, but don't feel like you have to move Jackson because he will crash down hard. There will be some bad starts here and there, but Jackson may have finally arrived in the bigs as a solid starter. There's too much upside for Jackson to just trade him away and get a mediocre part in return. Keep in mind, too, that pitching at Comerica Field and in the AL Central is much better for a pitcher than pitching at Tropicana Field and in the AL East, where Jackson toiled last season.

• He was bested by Jackson today, but welcome back Kelvim Escobar. Escobar looked pretty good today in his first start of the season, going 5 innings and allowing 2 runs, which both scored in the first inning. Escobar threw 92 pitches and struck out 5 batters, and should be able to go past the 100-pitch mark if he pitches effectively in his next start. His fastball velocity was consistently in the mid-90's, and his stuff looked good. Certainly Escobar should be owned in AL-only leagues, and is an acceptable wait-and-see add in deep mixed leagues. I wouldn't add him just yet in shallow mixed formats. But the upside is there.

• Matt Capps owners have to be breathing a bit easier, as the closer converted his fourth save chance in a row since taking that line drive off his pitching elbow over a week ago. Capps should be active in mixed league formats again, albeit as a mid-to-low-end #2 closer.

• The Nationals announced that Mike MacDougal is their new closer. Yep, that's right. For those truly desperate for saves in NL-only formats, I suppose you can take a stab on MacDougal, but in the words of James Ingram, I don't have the heart...to recommend him.
  

Wang Back In Yankee Rotation

With five straight scoreless innings over his last couple of relief appearances, the Yankees are now convinced that Chien-Ming Wang is ready to rejoin the rotation. Wang will start tomorrow against the Rangers, and CC Sabathia will be given an extra day of rest and now start on Friday (daily leaguers will want to make note of that). Since Wang has not had anything resembling a good start this season, and since the game is in Bandbox Field, and since he will be facing a tough Texas lineup, I would hold off on starting Wang tomorrow if I owned him (which I don't, thank God). To be fair, Wang could prove to have AL-only league value for the rest of the season, but it's exceptionally unlikely that he will be worth mixed league status going forward.

The loser of this move is Phil Hughes, but at least the right-hander isn't getting demoted back to the minors. Hughes will be moved to the bullpen, probably as a fallback option for Wang, in case Wang gets lit up early again. If Wang strings together a couple of solid starts, it's possible that the Yankees could then send Hughes down, so that he gets regular work. Hughes should still be held onto in AL-only leagues.

McCutchen To Get The Call

As a direct result of the Nate McLouth trade, the Pirates will call up their top prospect, Andrew McCutchen. With the Pirates waiving the white flag on yet another season, McCutchen should become the everyday center fielder immediately, and warrants consideration in NL-only leagues for his potential, especially in the stolen base department. As a 22-year-old, it's tough to predict how well he will hit--and no, the fact that he hit pretty well this spring doesn't mean that much to me--but he stole 34 bases last season in AAA. And that was with being caught stealing 19 times. So far this season in AAA, McCutchen had swiped 10 bases (with only 2 caught stealings), so it seems like he could be a 30-SB type in the majors. His hitting line was an impressive .303-.361-.493, as well. In deep NL-only leagues, those that owned--or had owned--Jordan Schafer may want to take a look at McCutchen. McCutchen has a higher ceiling than Schafer and now, obviously, has a big league gig.

A Brave Shakeup

The Braves were very active today, and they've made some moves to try to shake up a team that is hovering around .500, with a 26-25 record heading into today's play. That's only 4 1/2 games out of first place, though, so there's clearly still time for Atlanta to get things going. I've speculated all year that Bobby Cox wants to win now, and today's moves are a clear indication of that.

The first Braves news of the day was that the team was releasing Tom Glavine, in what was considered a major shock. Glavine had actually tossed two straight rehab outings in which he did not give up a run, but the team felt he didn't have enough velocity to succeed in the big leagues. In releasing the 305-game winner before he was called up to the active roster, the Braves saved having to pay the lefty a $1 million roster bonus. Not only that, but Glavine was due for another $1.25 million bonus after 30 days on the active roster and another $1.25 million after 90 days. Those who actually own Glavine in deep NL-only leagues can hope he latches on with another club, but really, there's just very little reason to own Glavine at all in any format.

Next, the Braves made a move that I absolutely love, trading for a player that gives them immediate help, Nate McLouth. (And it comes on the heels of the team demoting Jordan Schafer back to the minors.) The Atlanta outfield has been as pathetic as humanly possible this season, and getting McLouth in there to play center field is an enormous upgrade. From a fantasy perspective, this really doesn't change McLouth's outlook much. He may get an uptick in runs scored since he's going to a better team, and he should continue to steal bases at his normal pace. The Braves play in a park that isn't a home-run yard, but neither was PNC Park in Pittsburgh. Also, McLouth will likely hit either in front of or behind Chipper Jones, and that's always good news. The best prospect the Braves gave up in this deal was Charlie Morton, so they did well to get McLouth without giving up Kris Medlen or, obviously, Tommy Hanson.

Speaking of Hanson, I was only about a week off from my prediction during the spring that he would get called up before June 1 by the Braves, it would appear. Following today's moves, it's being reported in today's edition of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that Hanson will be called up to start Saturday's game against the Brewers. Hanson has been lights-out in the minors, with
a 1.50 ERA in 66 1/3 innings and a whopping 90 strikeouts. Hanson, for me, is a must-own in all fantasy leagues immediately, and yes, that means mixed leagues too. There could certainly be some inconsistency, but his upside is simply too high for him to not be owned. Trust me on this one, folks. If he's available in your league, find a spot for him and get him on your roster.

Back From Sabbatical

The Fantasy Leprechaun is back from a bit of a sabbatical, so I'll be back to my usual post-happy self going forward. Those of you that were missing me can now resume your normal lives.