Thursday, April 30, 2009

Valverde To Miss Another Three Weeks

Well, Jose Valverde won't be coming off the 15-Day DL on May 12, as was originally hoped. He had a procedure in which fluid was drained from his injured right calf today, but he needs another one tomorrow and it's going to be a more invasive procedure. Since he's going to get cut on, the cut itself will need three weeks to heal, and at that point the strained muscle should be healed as well.

What this does is make LaTroy Hawkins a more viable play in not only NL-only leagues, but mixed leagues as well. I wouldn't consider him anything more than a low-end #2 closer in mixed leagues, but that's a lot better than two weeks ago, when he had almost no fantasy value as an OK setup man for a great closer with unquestioned job security. I had mentioned earlier that I would prefer Ryan Madson to Hawkins, if Brad Lidge requires a DL stint. But with Hawkins now slated to close for at least three weeks, I have to change that stance, because we don't even know for sure that Madson will close at all, and if he does, it may only be for two weeks, not three (or more). If you have to make a pickup right now, and you are a Valverde owner, I'd choose Hawkins over Madson, because you don't want to be left out in the cold on a closer if somebody else nabs Hawkins and then Lidge ends up avoiding the DL.

Lidge's Status Up In The Air

Phillies closer Brad Lidge is going to throw a bullpen session on Friday, and the team will determine whether or not he needs a DL stint based on the results. Lidge has been bothered by a sore knee, so at least his fantasy owners know this isn't arm-related. Nonetheless, leg injuries are nothing to sneeze at for pitchers.

While Lidge owners hope he can avoid the DL, a DL stint would open the door for Ryan Madson to close games while Lidge is out. Madson is probably owned in most NL-only leagues; if he isn't, he should be. As for mixed leagues, Madson would definitely be worth a reliever spot if Lidge ends up on the DL. In fact, Lidge owners in mixed leagues would do well to snare Madson. I'd feel more comfortable with Madson than I would with LaTroy Hawkins, who is in virtually the same scenario as Madson would be in as a fill-in closer.

Wrist Fracture Shelves Double-E

Edwin Encarnacion was off to an absolutely dreadful start, hitting .127, and now we might have a possible explanation for that. Encarnacion has been placed on the DL due to a chip fracture in his left wrist, and even though the Reds think he sustained the injury on Monday night, it's certainly possible that the wrist was hurting before that and Monday was finally the time where it cried uncle. In any case, Double-E is expected to miss at least three weeks, and quite possibly longer. The Reds called up Adam Rosales, who started at third base today.

If you own Encarnacion in an NL-only leagues, you'll want to hold onto him as you search for an option to play in his stead while he's on the DL. Rosales could be an option for Encarnacion owners in NL-only leagues. In mixed leagues, you can feel free to cut bait on Double-E and replace him with a better option. It's very unlikely you were starting him, and you can do better at your backup third base spot. (I was actually surprised to notice that he is still owned in almost half of Yahoo leagues, though that should drop significantly by the end of this week.) And if you are that enamored with Encarnacion and think he can bounce back from this, simply re-acquire him off waivers when he's ready to be activated--he'll be widely available in leagues by that point. Here's a list of players that Double-E owners can look to as a replacement, with their owned-percentage in Yahoo leagues also listed...

  • Mark Reynolds (55% owned)...Would rather own him even if Double-E were perfectly healthy.
  • Melvin Mora (39% owned)...Just came off the DL and is in a great lineup spot in an underrated Baltimore offense. Was hitting great early before his injury.
  • Adrian Beltre (63% owned)...Slow start, but can help in most categories and the talent is there. Does have 4 steals already.
  • Scott Rolen (29% owned)...Solid start, feel free to ride the hot hand if you'd like, but remember an injury could be right around the corner.
  • Pedro Feliz (6% owned)...Wow, 94% available, suggesting he could be available in NL-only leagues too. Feliz is healthy, having started all but one game, and he's off to a great .323 start and his home ballpark helps.
  • Russell Branyan (21% owned)...His .333 average is about 100 points higher than where it will likely be at season's end, and he won't play vs. lefties, but feel free to roll the dice while he's hot if you like.

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Hafner To DL With Sore Shoulder

Travis Hafner owners had to be elated by his fast start to the season, but they are now fretting because the slugger has been forced to the DL due to a sore right shoulder. Yes, this is the same shoulder that has been plaguing Hafner since the latter part of the 2007 season, and the same shoulder he had offseason surgery on. Hafner is also slated to see Dr. James Andrews next week, which could be an ominous sign, although Manager Eric Wedge doesn't think it's very serious, for whatever that's worth (not much, if you ask me).

So how should fantasy owners view this news? Well, if you own Hafner in a mixed league (he is owned in exactly half of Yahoo leagues at the moment, though that number will drop tomorrow once news of his DL stint is out there), you were a believer that he could return to form, and you should DL him as opposed to waiving him, assuming you're in a league where you can pick up a player when you put a current member of your roster on the DL. There are many solid hitting options on most waiver wires at this point, so Hafner owners could look to the following players below (with their current owned-percentage in Yahoo leagues also listed)...

  • Jason Kubel (35% owned)...I've been singing Kubel's praises all year
  • Shin-Soo Choo (56% owned)...Starting-caliber mixed league OF takes Hafner's cleanup spot in the Cleveland order for as long as Hafner is out
  • Adam LaRoche (46% owned)...Off to the best start of his career and has 5 homers
  • Mark Reynolds (55% owned)...Like LaRoche, solid source of power
  • Mike Cameron (51% owned)...Streaky hitter off to great start, also offers SB potential
  • Dexter Fowler (37% owned)...If you want an infusion of SB/runs mixed with a little pop

Hanrahan Out As Closer

In a move that had to be expected--and discussed Monday night on this blog--Nationals Manager Manny Acta has removed struggling reliever Joel Hanrahan from the closer role. Scott Olsen is saying thank you tonight, because the bullpen actually held on to a win for him. So what can we expect out of the Washington bullpen going forward?

Hanrahan may get another chance to close if and when he can get his act together, but he can safely be dropped in mixed leagues for sure. He'll work in non-pressure situations for the foreseeable future. Acta has indicated that it will be closer-by-committee for a while, and tonight it was Kip Wells that pitched the 8th inning and Julian Tavarez (what is he, like 50 years old?) closing things out in the 9th inning. Until Joe Beimel comes off the DL, expect Wells and Tavarez to get the save chances. When Beimel returns, Acta indicated that he would be the favorite for saves.

This situation has become the worst of the 30 MLB teams for fantasy owners in terms of closers, so hopefully you aren't so desperate that you have to try to pick up a Washington reliever. You're just asking for trouble if you roster Kip Wells or Julian Tavarez. As for Beimel, at least he has had decent success pitching in the big leagues in the last couple of years, although certainly not as a closer or even as a primary setup man. Consider Beimel once he comes off the DL if you are truly desperate for saves, but fantasy owners shouldn't feel like they have to have him just because he's a possible closer. My best advice? Stay away from this situation entirely.

Valverde Placed on DL

The Astros placed closer Jose Valverde on the 15-Day DL yesterday, due to his lingering calf ailment. This is probably the best thing for him, as he can now just take the time off to let his banged-up body heal. The good news is that his arm is fine. Once Valverde is physically sound, he should be one of the best closers in the league going forward.

LaTroy Hawkins is the immediate beneficiary here, as he becomes the closer for as long as Valverde is out (and it's expected Valverde will be ready to come off the DL once eligible on May 12). Valverde owners could look to Hawkins as a viable option. I'd certainly feel more comfortable with Hawkins for a couple of weeks than I would one of the Washington relievers.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Two-For-Tuesday For Mariners And White Sox

The scheduled game between the Mariners and White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago was rained out on Monday, and the two teams will play a doubleheader (weather permitting) on Tuesday. As such, fantasy owners in leagues with daily moves will want to get hitters from these two teams in their lineups later today for sure, since you should get two games of stats for them today instead of the usual one. So if you've been benching Alexei Ramirez, you'll want to have him active today. If you own a guy like Josh Fields or Jose Lopez, and he's been riding your pine, today is a good day to get him active. I'd even roll the dice with the ice-cold Adrian Beltre, since he has raked Bartolo Colon in his career (Colon will start the first game) and since he hit .338 off lefties last season (John Danks will start the second game).

The first game is scheduled for 5:05 EST, so you might want to check before that to make sure that the weather will not be a problem again.

Sandoval Inches Closer to Catcher Eligibility

Two down, three more to go!

Pablo Sandoval caught Barry Zito again on Monday night, the second straight start in which he's donned the catcher's gear for the soft-tossing lefty. So, in most fantasy leagues, he now needs three more starts at catcher in order to gain him catcher eligibility. Zito has been considerably better with Sandoval catching him dating back to last year, so this could be something that continues. If so, Sandoval could gain the coveted catcher eligibility by mid-May.

To put it simply, Sandoval's value would skyrocket as a catcher in fantasy baseball. He only has 5 RBI so far, but he's hitting .294 and this guy is a natural-born hitter. As a catcher, he could be a Top-5 player at his position, and I don't think that's an overstatement, especially because he will get so few games off this season. Obviously, most starting catchers require many more days off in comparison to other position players, but with Sandoval, he'll be playing third base in real baseball most of the time. I advised this earlier, but target him as a trade candidate. Fantasy leagues are all about finding value, and you'd be way ahead of the game if you have a solid-hitting third baseman as your catcher.

Bonifacio Owners, Meet Dexter Fowler

I've seen enough, folks. After Emilio Bonifacio's torrid week one start, I advised that he had to be owned in all mixed leagues, at least until he cooled off, and that his stolen base potential was too great to ignore. Then he had a terrible week two, and I advised that he couldn't possibly be that bad, and that mixed leaguers should ride it out. Well, after yet another putrid week, and after seeing just how overmatched he's looked at the dish, I'm going to eat some crow and advise that mixed leaguers cut bait with him. His average is down to .266, and he has a pathetic K-BB ratio too (he's struck out 20 times and walked just 4 times). Even when he was hitting .378 ten days ago, his OBP was only 13 points higher than his average. When you don't take walks at all, you basically have to hit for a high average or you're going to be a major liability in the leadoff spot, and that's what Bonifacio is right now. He's down to 51% owned in Yahoo leagues, but clearly a lot of people out there are still hoping he can turn it around, since it's roughly 50/50 at this point for his owned-percentage. He may still steal some bases, but that's only if he holds onto a starting job. And the way he's going, that may not be for much longer. As for a player that you might be able to replace Bonifacio with...

I've seen enough, part two. Dexter Fowler has emerged as the leadoff hitter and everyday center fielder for the Colorado Rockies, and he's basically forced his way into their plans. Manager Clint Hurdle is not being afraid to put his talented young hitter in the lineup, starting Fowler in 9 of the last 10 games. Fowler had a game on Monday night that Chris Young (the San Diego starter, as opposed to the Arizona outfielder) will be having nightmares over, as Fowler swiped not one, not two, not three, not four, but five bags on him! Five steals in one night is rather video game-like, wouldn't you say? The thievery now brings Fowler's SB total to 9 on the season. He's also scored 11 runs in 53 at-bats, while batting a solid .302 with 2 homers and 6 RBI. He's also shown some pop, as his 16 hits have gone for 26 total bases.

Unlike Bonifacio, Fowler has shown that he can reach base other than with a hit, as he's walked 8 times (against 8 strikeouts). He very well may strike out more than he walks, but the fact that he can draw walks is quite impressive for such a young player. His OBP stands at .393, so the 91-point gap between his batting average and OBP is outstanding. It suggests that even if Fowler batted in the .260-.270 range, he would still have a solid OBP. The extra walks will only increase his ability to steal bases, and score runs atop a solid Colorado lineup (especially in home games, and not surprisingly Fowler's numbers have been better at Coors Field so far). Fowler is available in 86% of Yahoo leagues at the moment, and if you are a Bonifacio owner in a mixed league, I'd recommend swapping out Bonifacio for the likely-available Fowler. Fowler is a highly-regarded talent that has thrust his way into a great role and has much more upside as a hitter than Bonifacio.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Monday Musings

While the Red Sox continue to win and get great bullpen work and while the Nationals continue to lose and get horrible bullpen work, let's get to the relevant fantasy news from Monday...

Joel Pineiro is establishing himself as a solid NL-only league play as he ran his record to 4-0 today with a solid 2-run outing over 6 2/3 innings. Pineiro's ERA is now 3.76, and I'd recommend him as a strong sell-high candidate if you have him. Why? Well, while I think he could certainly have a good record pitching for such a solid team, the fact is that Pineiro just doesn't miss many bats, and when you pitch to contact that much, you're going to have starts where you get hit hard. Really hard. Trust me, it will happen. Pineiro has now tossed 26 1/3 innings, and he only has 6 more strikeouts than I have this season. (That would mean he has 6 strikeouts, for those of you that didn't do well on your Math SAT score.) His upside is probably to have a Nick Blackburn-like season, which wouldn't be terrible at all. If you have a staff full of strikeout pitchers, having a guy like Pineiro around wouldn't be so terrible in an NL-only league for the win potential he has, but if you could pawn him off on a Cardinal fan in your league, go ahead and try.

Pineiro's teammate Ryan Franklin made sure that Pineiro would indeed win his fourth start in a row by tossing a scoreless 9th inning for his sixth save in as many chances. The Franklin Mint, indeed. Franklin would have to get hit pretty hard to lose his closer role at the moment, and since St. Louis should be a solid team all year, Franklin has to be considered a solid #2 closer right now. With each successful appearance, his fantasy value continues to rise. He's an unconventional closer, to be sure, but that doesn't necessarily mean he can't do the job.

CC Sabathia was outpitched by Justin Verlander, but I'd be encouraged by what I saw tonight if I were a CC owner. Sabathia finally showed dominance and command with his stuff, getting a lot of swings and misses on his pitches--something that was happening very little before tonight. Sabathia struck out 7 and walked none in a complete-game, 4-run, 8 inning performance (the Tigers didn't have to bat in the 9th, hence the complete-game over 8 innings). Magglio Ordonez's 2-run homer in the 6th was the big blow against Sabathia. But again, I'd focus on the fact that CC only gave up 6 hits and had 7 K's against zero walks if I owned him. The results will be there going forward as long as he is healthy.

As for Verlander, he's been getting terribly unlucky so far this season and tonight he was finally rewarded. Verlander tossed 7 innings of scoreless ball to win his first game of the season, striking out 9 batters and allowing no walks. He's now 1-2 with a still-high 6.75 ERA, but to illustrate how unlucky he's been, Verlander has a 34-9 K-BB ratio in 28 innings. His BABIP is too high and that will start to balance out going forward. Verlander's velocity has been wonderful, with his fastball in the mid-to-high 90's all year. It might be tough to get Verlander as a buy-low trade candidate after such a great game tonight, but he might be so if he has a bad start his next time out. The peripheral stats don't lie: he's pitched better than his ERA and record would indicate.

Tim Wakefield continues to baffle hitters with his fluttering knuckleball early on, as he allowed just a single hit over 7 innings of shutout ball at Cleveland today, though he didn't factor into the decision. Wakefield is now sporting a sterling 1.86 ERA, and is a recommended sell-high candidate.

Could Cliff Lee be coming around? I'm still not convinced he will be anything close to what he was last season, but still, his last three starts have to make his owners really happy. Lee was the owner of a 9.90 ERA after two starts; now, after 5 starts, his ERA is at a respectable 3.94, and he's only walked one batter over his last two starts. Lee, like Wakefield, took a no-decision today after tossing 8 innings of scoreless ball. As long as the command is there, Lee will be an asset in mixed leagues even with a major ERA regression this season because his WHIP will be solid. Just don't expect him to be a front-line fantasy starter for you.

Johnny Cueto continued his hot early-season run, with 7 innings of 1-run ball today in a no-decision against Roy Oswalt (who also went 7 innings and gave up one run). Cueto struck out 5 hitters and, in the best piece of news, only gave up 1 walk. In fact, Cueto has allowed either one walk or zero walks in 3 of his 4 starts (he gave up 6 of his 8 walks on the season in a single start). If he takes a leap forward with his command this season, Cueto has the kind of high-upside potential that you rarely see with a lower-end mixed league starter (which is where he was being drafted). Mixed leaguers should certainly be rolling with him right now.

I can't exactly call him Neiman-Marcus because the spelling is off, but Jeff Niemann is doing his best to show AL-only leaguers that he warrants being started when he takes the bump. Niemann evened his record at 2-2 with an efficient performance tonight, allowing just a single run in 5 2/3 innings. He struck out 4 and allowed only 3 hits (though he did issue 4 walks). Niemann's ERA is down to 4.43 now, an acceptable figure for an AL fifth starter. I'm certainly skeptical that Niemann can keep this up, but AL-only leaguers could do worse. At this rate, perhaps when David Price gets called up it will be to replace Andy Sonnanstine, not Niemann.

Allowing 4 runs in 6 innings doesn't sound too impressive, but Scott Baker's owners will be pleased to see that he had 7 strikeouts against just one walk and 6 hits, even though the loss drops him to 0-3 with a 9.82 ERA. Baker has too much talent for this to continue, and he deserved a better fate tonight, so mixed leaguers would be wise to target Baker as a good buy-low candidate.

It was nice to see future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman get a standing ovation by the crowd in Milwaukee for his first appearance of the season. It wasn't a save situation, with the Brew Crew up 10-5 in the 9th inning, but Hoffman came on and threw a scoreless frame. Hoffman is a low-end #2 closer option, but should be activated and starting in all but the shallowest of mixed leagues. Hoffman may be a low-end closer, but he is one with unquestioned job security and that's more than you can say for quite a few closers.

Unlike Hoffman, Joel Hanrahan can't have great job security at this point. Despite the fact that the Nationals have no obvious replacement for him, they still may be forced to try somebody else at this rate, because Hanrahan has been atrocious so far. Hanrahan blew his third save of the season already tonight, allowing the go-ahead grand slam to Raul Ibanez in the 8th inning with 2 outs (he was charged with 3 runs in just 1/3 of an inning). Hanrahan is now sporting an 8.64 ERA, and I certainly hope you have better options if you own him. He simply can't be trusted in any fantasy league at the moment. Manny Acta isn't to blame here, as virtually every member of the National bullpen has been horrible, but soon Acta may have to make a change. Your guess is as good as mine as far as which reliever would become closer if Hanrahan lost his job. My two best guesses, I suppose, would be Garrett Mock and Kip Wells. Yikes.

Speaking of Raul Ibanez, he is showing that his new home ballpark suits him better than his old park, the cavernous Safeco Field. Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is a definite bandbox, and Ibanez's flyball tendencies play wonderfully there. It's a big reason he's hitting .342 with 6 homers and 16 RBI, and I expect him to be a solid mixed league outfielder for fantasy owners all year. His home ballpark is a semi-Coors Field, and there's no way Ibanez can be left off starting lineups under any circumstances when playing at home (he has a 1.319 OPS in 38 at-bats in home games thus far).

Monday Injury Tidbits

Sorry for the inactivity on Sunday...apparently Bea Arthur's death really did get to me. Here are a few items I can touch on before my usual nightly notes about the games:

  • The #1 pick of many fantasy drafts, Hanley Ramirez, provided a scary moment for his owners when he was hit by a pitch on his hand earlier today and had to leave the game. Luckily, X-rays were negative, and it looks like he has avoided a serious injury. He's probably day-to-day, so Ramirez owners, take a deep breath and exhale.
  • Nate McLouth is still a few days away from returning to the lineup, but probably will avoid the DL. The Pirates are likely to hold him out of the 3-game series in Milwaukee that started today, and then try to get him back into the lineup before the weekend. Daily leaguers will want to keep checking for updates on his status, but plan on not having him available for the next three games.
  • Brad Lidge does indeed have something wrong with him, but at least it's not an arm injury. Lidge was held out of a save chance tonight due to knee soreness, and it wouldn't be surprising if that was causing him to have some iffy appearances (though he's still done his job for the most part). Ryan Madson saved the game tonight and could pick up a couple of save chances in the short-term. And you never know, Lidge could require a DL stint. Madson should be owned in NL-only leagues and would certainly warrant a mixed league pickup if Lidge is DL'd.
  • Carlos Delgado apparently aggravated a hip injury while sliding into third base, so he was held out of the lineup today. Delgado has had problems with his hip before, so this bears watching. Delgado owners will have to check for updates, but consider him day-to-day for now.
  • Stephen Drew beat his brother J.D. to the DL with a strained left hamstring, which qualifies as a definite upset. The good news for Drew owners is that the injury doesn't appear to be a significant one, and the team expects him to be back when he's eligible in 15 days. Augie Ojeda picks up very slight NL-only league value as a regular for the next two weeks, although he's known as a slick fielder and not much of a hitter, so Drew owners in NL-only leagues can hopefully do better.
  • Chris Getz had actually stabilized the leadoff role for the White Sox, but he has a small fracture on the tip of a finger on his right hand and it is likely going to send him to the DL, though the team has not made a decision yet. Assuming that Getz does need time off, Jayson Nix would get called up from the minors to share time with Brent Lillibridge at second base, and Lillibridge would probably get the majority of the starts. In such a scenario, Lillibridge would have his AL-only league value go up (and he would likely hit leadoff, too). Nix would be an AL-only league gamble, in light of his horrible MLB performance last season.

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Saturday Notes

While the Fantasy Leprechaun is reeling from the death of Beatrice Arthur today--yes, I'm not afraid to admit that "The Golden Girls" is my favorite TV comedy ever--the show must go on, which means we have a lot to cover with a full slate of baseball today, other than my separate post about the Yankees-Red Sox game. Let's get to it.

Kevin Slowey has certainly recovered from a rough first two starts. Before his last start, he worked on correcting a flaw in his delivery, and it paid dividends. He was excellent again today, pitching into the 9th inning with a shutout (he ended up leaving and charged with one earned run). Slowey has his ERA down to 4.44 now and is 3-0. Continue to view him as a solid mixed league starter in all formats where WHIP is a category.

Chris Volstad continues to impress, as he was deprived a win only because of the blown save by Leo Nunez today against the Phillies (Matt Lindstrom wasn't available after his 38-pitch implosion yesterday). Volstad tossed 7 innings and gave up just 2 earned runs on 4 hits, while striking out 6 (against just one walk). His ERA is a sterling 2.70, and the league is hitting just .181 against him. I'm impressed by Volstad and really believe he could be a mixed league starter all season, not just a short-term guy on a hot run right now.

Ian Kinsler, Jason Kubel, and Prince Fielder each went yard twice today. Kinsler is ridiculously hot and is up to 7 homers and 20 RBI on the season, and is a legitimate threat for 25 homers and 100 RBI out of the leadoff spot, not to mention a super-high run total and the steals he'll provide, too. Those that didn't consider him a first-round talent on draft day might be regretting it. Kubel has maintained his great start after he hit for the cycle earlier in the season, and is now hitting .350 (and slugging .683), with 4 homers and 15 RBI. Joe Mauer's impending return to the lineup should only increase Kubel's RBI opportunities. Kubel is now owned in 24% of Yahoo leagues, which is up 14% in the last week, and I expect that number to keep on climbing. I like him as a legitimate Utility option in mixed leagues. Fielder is off to the slowest start of the three listed here, but his efforts tonight leave him at .233 on the season with 3 homers and 14 RBI, which is nothing to worry about at all on April 25. Players with long swings like Fielder tend to start the season slowly, so just be patient with Cecil's son.

Mark Buehrle has shaken off the effects of a bad spring (he probably doesn't even care about the spring and just wants the season to start) and today's win has gotten him off to a 3-0, 3.00 ERA start to the season. Buehrle won't have incredible peripheral stats, but he's a consistent, durable winner, and is a low-end mixed league starter because you can count on him to give you what he almost always gives you. I sound like a broken record, but proven consistency is something to always value in fantasy.

Hiroki Kuroda is progressing slowly from his left oblique injury, and it's being reported that he had to shut down his bullpen session on Thursday after experiencing too much soreness in that area. It doesn't seem like Kuroda will be ready to return to his role as the Dodgers' #2 starter until late-May or even early-June at this point. NL-only leaguers will certainly want to keep him on the DL, while mixed leaguers in shallow leagues should probably look at other options. Even when healthy Kuroda is a low-end mixed league option, and there are a lot of options you'll find on waiver wires that are just as good.

The incomparable Albert Pujols hit a grand slam today and is up to 7 homers and 25 RBI on the season. His .348 average is actually, well, pretty average for him, which is a testament to just how amazing this guy is. I went against the grain and believed Pujols to be the #1 overall player this season in drafts, over Hanley Ramirez, and I just think this guy could roll out of bed and hit .330 with 35 homers and 100 RBI. A .350-40-120 season is absolutely possible.

Mitchell Boggs tossed 5 2/3 innings and allowed just an unearned run today for the Cardinals in notching his first win of the season. Boggs should be in the rotation for a little while, unless the Cardinals make a trade or a signing (due to the Chris Carpenter injury), so he could be a decent play in NL-only leagues for the short-term because of the support of the team he plays for. The Cardinals, after all, are 13-5. I would be hesitant to start him in places like Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Denver, and Phoenix, but other than that he is probably worth starting in NL-only formats.

While Jason Motte should have been dropped by now in mixed leagues, he is showing that he still has value in some NL-only formats, particularly those that value Holds as a category. Motte picked up his 3rd hold of the season today, recording the final out of the 6th inning and all 3 outs in the 7th inning, and the score was only 3-1 in favor of the Cardinals at the time he was in there. He could slowly be earning Tony La Russa's trust again, at least in a setup capacity (Ryan Franklin's role right now as the closer is not in question). Motte isn't going to do what I thought he was before the season started, but don't forget about him in NL-only formats.

With left-hander Mike Hampton starting against the Brewers, Bill Hall had a big game today, going 3-for-6 with a home run, 4 RBI, and a stolen base as well. Since Hall had just one home run and 3 RBI prior to today, it's just a perfect example of why Hall should only be used in situations where he gets to face a left-hander. He does hit them well. If you start him in NL-only leagues against righties, you're going to be disappointed.

Jose Valverde, given the last three days off due to nagging calf and ankle injuries, was summoned tonight for a save chance and promptly blew the save, meaning he's just 1-for-3 in save opportunities this season. I firmly believe that his early struggles are due to his nagging injuries, and not his ability, so just be patient with him. He may even need a DL stint to get right, who knows, but Valverde is one of the more dependable closers around, so don't be too alarmed right now. If you have the roster space, Valverde owners might want to grab LaTroy Hawkins, who would close if Valverde did need a DL stint.

Nate McLouth did not play tonight after sustaining an oblique strain on Friday night, and for now McLouth is considered day-to-day. Check his status each day going forward. McLouth has heated up since a horrible first week, and his owners will want him active as soon as it's clear he's returning to the starting lineup.

The surroundings at PETCO Park suited Zach Duke just fine tonight, as the lefty twirled another gem. Duke got one out in the 9th inning and was lifted, allowing just 1 run on 6 hits, with 2 walks and 5 strikeouts. Duke has now alternated between being great and being terrible in his last two starts, and the Padre lineup and the Padres' home ballpark probably had a lot to do with his outing tonight. I do feel pretty confident that Duke can have a much better season than the season he had last year, but I think you're being ambitious if you think Duke can be anything more than a short-term contributor in mixed leagues. Consider him a solid NL-only league play and you won't be disappointing yourself; his 3-1 record and 2.43 ERA will not last.

Angel right-hander Anthony Ortega was predictably inconsistent in his losing start against the Mariners tonight, allowing 4 earned runs in 5 innings, but at least he did strike out 5 batters and showed pretty decent stuff. Long-term, Ortega should figure into the Angel rotation, and is a better pitcher than Shane Loux or Matt Palmer, two hurlers currently occupying spots in the rotation by default. If I were really desperate in an AL-only league I'd prefer Ortega to Loux or Palmer, but you really should be able to do better.

Jose Guillen was activated from the DL today by the Royals, so AL-only leaguers can feel free to activate him immediately. He shouldn't be on mixed league rosters, at least not until he gets hot. Guillen is a streaky hitter and usually has spurts during a season where he actually can help in mixed league formats, but this isn't one of those times.

Mike Pelfrey was an advised play in NL-only leagues by yours truly today simply because of his opponent (the woeful Nationals) and his home ballpark, and he delivered a win for those that had him active. His peripherals weren't impressive (5 2/3 IP, 3 walks, and just one strikeout), but his owners will live with 2 runs allowed and a win every time out. Pelfrey is a pretty iffy play going forward, and I recommend spot-starting him in good matchups (like the one today) until he proves he is over his forearm malady.

Derek Lowe improved to 2-1 with a solid 7-inning, two-run outing today, and his trend of more strikeouts this season continued, as he fanned 8 batters. Lowe would very likely be 3-1 if not for a long rain delay in one of the games he started, so his owners should be encouraged by his start to the season. Lowe has a 3.10 ERA, and is on pace for about 210 innings and about 175 K's, so if he kept up that strikeout pace and kept his ERA close to 3.50, he would be better-than-expected this season. I think that the move out of Los Angeles has actually invigorated Lowe, and I think he'll be very solid all year.

It's been a good week for Brad Ziegler owners, as any possible threat of Joey Devine to his job this season has now been eliminated. Their guy is also throwing the ball well right now after a bit of a slow start in week one. Ziegler came on for a 4-out save today, and was successful in notching his 4th save. Ziegler's ERA is down to 1.74 now, and he should be viewed as a pretty decent #2 closer option.


Yankees-Red Sox Fireworks

The Yankees-Red Sox game provided so many offensive fireworks (and pitching snafus) that I'll cite separate newsworthy posts for it, beginning with Mike Lowell...

  • Those that took a chance on Mike Lowell in drafts have to be ecstatic at how he's started the season. His offseason hip surgery really sent his stock tumbling, but he's doing his best to rebuild his value to what it was before the surgery. Lowell had a home run and a bases-clearing double today against the Yankees, and the 6 RBI now leave him with 22 for the season. He's batting .328 now and slugging .625, with 4 homers. Mixed leaguers are coming around, as Lowell is now owned in 59% of Yahoo leagues (up from 35% last week), but you still might be able to snag him off your waiver wire. There's still some risk after a surgery like the one he had, but if Lowell truly is healthy then he's absolutely going to provide starter-worthy stats for you at third base in mixed leagues.
  • Jacoby Ellsbury hit his first homer of the season, but more importantly for his fantasy owners he stole another base, his 8th, which ties him for the MLB lead with Bobby Abreu. Ellsbury is hitting .288 now with the 8 steals, and fantasy owners will take both of those numbers.
  • David Ortiz is starting to show some signs that his power might be coming back, as his only hit went for a double and he is now up to .217-.278-.319 on the season. Obviously that isn't very good, but considering where he was two weeks ago, it's a step in the right direction. If you are predicting a .275-25-90 season, you probably won't be disappointed.
  • The #6 spot in the order is suiting Jason Bay just fine, as he had 2 hits, 3 runs, 3 RBI, and 2 walks today, and is at .309-.480-.655 on the season. Bay has 16 RBI, and with #5 hitter J.D. Drew's typical on-base skills on full display (.381 OBP despite a .250 average), Bay figures to have plenty of RBI chances all year, regardless of where he bats in the lineup. Bay is a stud fantasy OF in any format.
  • Jason Varitek is still best-left for AL-only play, but he did hit his 4th homer of the year today. His owners will accept his .229 average if he can keep hitting for power like this.
  • Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon continue their solid play atop the Yankee order, as both had 2 hits and 2 runs scored today. Jeter is at .301-.363-.521, while Damon is at .317-.408-.517 thus far. Jeter also stole a base, his third, lending credence to the theory that he would run a little bit more as the leadoff hitter. If he continues to average a steal per week, Jeter would steal about 25 bases this year, boosting his value.
  • Mark Teixeira didn't have any of the 15 hits the Yankees pounded out, but fear not, Teixeira owners: your guy walked 5 times and scored 3 runs. I'm really optimistic for a big-time season from Tex this year, and the notoriously slow-starter's .235-.403-.451 line is actually better than it usually is this time of year. The new Yankee Stadium plays perfectly into his hands and I fully expect Tex to be a top 3 fantasy first baseman this season.
  • Robinson Cano is showing that last season was an aberration, as the talented lefty swinger is scalding the baseball so far. He had 3 hits, all of which went for extra-bases (2 homers and a double), and Cano is now hitting .366 and slugging .634, with 5 homers and 15 RBI for the season. If anybody was doubting Cano's status as a mixed-league starter, stop. Just stop.
  • Brett Gardner was just 1-for-5 and is hitting only .232, but he did steal his 5th base of the season, showing that he has value in AL-only leagues.
  • Both A.J. Burnett and Josh Beckett gave up 8 earned runs in 5 innings today, ballooning their ERA's to 5.47 and 6.00, respectively. I would just chalk this up to a tough outing against great offenses for both, and start each with confidence the next time out.
  • More of a concern for the Yankees is the state of their bullpen in front of Mariano Rivera. Brian Bruney, who was faring well as Rivera's setup man, was placed on the DL prior to the game with an elbow strain and is likely to miss 3 weeks. The Yankees do not have another reliever I trust at all other than Rivera, so I wouldn't add any of the Yankee setup men if you are thinking about Rivera insurance. Bruney was solid Rivera insurance, but that was it. If you own Bruney in a deep AL-only league and are looking at another setup man to add in his stead while he's DL'd, don't look the Yankees' way for help.

Greinke The Great, Again

Zack Greinke is absolutely on fire. Greinke saw his 38-inning scoreless streak come to an end as a run scored in the 5th inning today, but the run was unearned. Greinke ended up tossing a complete-game shutout against the Tigers (a powerful offense), his second in a row, and the brilliance of his start to the season cannot be understated. Greinke's 9 innings tonight were masterful, as he allowed just 3 hits and 1 walk, while striking out 10 batters over 108 pitches. Check out these stats on Greinke so far this year...

  • 29 IP, 0.00 ERA, 4-0 record, 36 K, 6 BB, 0.86 WHIP
While Greinke has nowhere to go but down in terms of his statistical excellence, I absolutely think Greinke is for real, and a legitimate Cy Young Award-type of pitcher for years to come. If you think you can get an owner to trade Greinke as a sell-high, absolutely try to make a deal to acquire him. Especially if you think that owner is a sucker for a big-name, recognizable star pitcher that is not as good as Greinke. Here's a list below of a few pitchers that I think Greinke will outproduce from a fantasy perspective, with comments for each.

  • CC Sabathia...his incredibly high workload from the last two seasons (especially the end of last season) coupled with the fact that Yankee Stadium is playing like a bandbox are enough to make me prefer Greinke.
  • Josh Beckett...I actually like Beckett a lot this year, but he has a lot more durability questions than Greinke. And the AL East is the toughest division for a pitcher.
  • Jon Lester...This is another guy I like a lot this year (I own him, after all), but I just don't think he will strike out as many batters as Greinke and I think there's a decent chance at a regression in ERA compared to last year. Another AL East guy like Beckett.
  • Cole Hamels...I shouldn't have to tell you that he has major durability concerns.
  • A.J. Burnett...Even if he somehow stayed healthy all year, he's still likely to have a significantly higher ERA and WHIP than Greinke because of his high walk rate. And it bears repeating: Burnett is at least 50/50 to go on the DL this season.

Webb Shut Down For Three Weeks

Have you ever been to a Bingo hall? If you have, you know that when somebody has won, they yell "Bingo", and that the very next thing you hear is a bunch of people collectively muttering obscenities that they probably don't think people can hear.

Scheduled to throw a bullpen session today, Brandon Webb experienced shoulder tightness before he could even get on the mound. He was just playing catch when he felt the discomfort. Arizona has decided to completely shut down Webb for three weeks. It's exceptionally discouraging news for Webb owners, because even if he feels perfect in three weeks, he's going to need to go out on a rehab assignment and build up arm strength, meaning that the absolute soonest Webb will be back on a major league mound is in six weeks. Since Webb has only pitched 4 innings this season, and since Webb may not be back until early June in a perfect scenario, that means that Webb will miss at least 1/3 of the season even if he makes all of his scheduled starts after early June. He's guaranteed to be a disappointment for fantasy owners just based on that alone.

If you own Webb, though, there is really nothing you can do other than continue to stash him on your DL and just hope that he makes it back. He has no trade value right now, and there's no point in waiving him because the upside he possesses if he is healthy is much more than anything you will find on the waiver wire right now. This situation is hopefully not going to turn into what Chris Carpenter owners experienced in 2007, when Carp threw 6 innings in his first start and then didn't throw another pitch for the rest of the season.

Brandon Webb's shoulder has just yelled "Bingo." Go ahead, Webb owners. Mutter obscenities. I understand. I think we all do.

Friday, April 24, 2009

Disastrous Friday For Closers

What a horrible night to own a closer for many fantasy owners. Let's get to the damage...

  • Matt Lindstrom absolutely imploded against the Phillies. The Marlins had a 3-0 lead in the 9th inning and called on Lindstrom, who proceeded to allow 7 runs, all of them earned, and took a blown save and a loss. Certainly it was questionable to allow him to throw 38 pitches, but the bottom line is that the ugly outing took his ERA up to over 10 for the season. Don't be too worried about one terrible outing, and continue to view Lindstrom as a decent #2 closer option.
  • Well, he's human. The ageless Mariano Rivera blew his first save of the season tonight against the Red Sox, even though he did get 3 outs. The problem was, he needed 4, since he was brought in with 2 outs in the 8th inning. He gave up a 2-out, 2-run homer to Jason Bay in the bottom of the 9th to tie the score at 4. Rivera did have 3 strikeouts; no need to worry at all here.
  • George Sherrill suffered basically the exact same fate as Rivera, except his blown save resulted in a loss for he and the Orioles. Sherrill, like Rivera, was called in with 2 outs in the 8th inning, and ended up allowing a 2-run homer to Michael Young in the 9th inning that turned a one-run Oriole lead into a one-run Ranger lead. This was Sherrill's first blown save of the season, so his job is not in any question at this point. He would probably have to blow a couple more saves in a row to even have his job become threatened. Chris Ray is most likely to end the season as the Oriole closer, in my opinion, but that is far off in the distance. For now, continue to view Sherrill as a low-end #2 closer option.
  • It wasn't a blown save, but Matt Capps took a loss in San Diego tonight. Called into a tie game to pitch the bottom of the 11th inning, Capps allowed a game-winning single with two outs by Brian Giles. Absolutely nothing to really worry about here for Capps owners, and perhaps the blow of the loss is softened by the fact that he didn't blow a save. Capps' ERA is still at 1.42 with the loss. Continue to view Capps as a solid #2 closer.
  • Manny Corpas also took a loss that was not a blown save in Colorado tonight against the Dodgers. Pitching the top of the 9th inning in a tie game, Corpas allowed a go-ahead RBI single to Brad Ausmus of all people, and Jonathan Broxton was able to close it out in the bottom of the 9th for the Dodger win. Huston Street had actually given up 2 runs in 1 2/3 innings earlier, so Corpas' grip on the closer role is not in question at this point. Corpas still hasn't blown a save, though he has had iffy appearances other than his save situations. Corpas should be thought of as a low-end #2 closer option right now.
  • At least Francisco Rodriguez got the save, but he did give up his first two runs of the season tonight. Lucky for him, he was working with a 3-run lead, and the two runs allowed didn't cost he, the Mets, or Johan Santana owners. K-Rod is one of the top closer options in fantasy and I expect his peripheral stats to be better than last year, though his save total will certainly be much lower.

Friday Afternoon Notes

More random notes before we get to the full slate of Friday games...

  • Kyle Lohse twisted his knee while covering first base last night, but was able to complete 5 innings and get the win (improving to 3-0). An MRI revealed good news for Lohse owners, as he has no structural damage and is not likely to land on the DL. It is possible that he could have his next start skipped, however, or pushed back. Continue to check back for updates, but it appears Lohse has avoided a significant injury here. Oh, and this latest win means that Lohse is now 3-0 at home this season and took a no-decision in his lone road start (giving up 4 runs in 5 innings in that start). Lohse continues to be a great start at home and a mediocre one on the road.
  • Cole Hamels also appears to have avoided any significant injury after taking that Prince Fielder liner off his arm. Hamels says he feels fine and isn't likely to miss a start. While Hamels didn't go to medical school, the team isn't concerned at this point so there's no reason to believe Hamels suffered anything more than a Rawlings tattoo on his arm.
  • Scott Downs immediately notched his first save of the season after B.J. Ryan was placed on the DL. Downs should be viewed as a very solid high-end #2 closer for as long as he has the job. He's an ideal replacement for Ryan owners, but you may not see him on your waiver wire.
  • Garret Anderson was placed on the 15-Day DL today due to continuing soreness in his left quadriceps. Remember that earlier in the spring, Anderson was out of action due to a left calf injury. Anderson should be nowhere near mixed league rosters, but NL-only leaguers can feel free to DL him. Anderson has heated up in the second half in the last two seasons, so NL-only leaguers may have to wait until GA gives them anything substantial.
  • Brandon Jones was called up from AAA and takes Anderson's place on the Braves. Matt Diaz could get the majority of the playing time, but the Braves would not have called up Jones if he wasn't going to play at all. He has a lot of talent, so he could warrant consideration in NL-only leagues. As for Diaz, his value just got a boost, as he should at least be platoon-worthy in NL-only leagues for as long as Anderson is out.
  • Brian Burres will be called up and start in place of the DL'd Ricky Romero on Saturday for Toronto. Burres is a lefty like Romero, but that's about where the similarities end, because Romero is very talented and Burres isn't. If the fact that the game will be in homer-happy U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago doesn't scare you, perhaps Burres' career 5.88 ERA and 1.66 WHIP will. It should. Burres is not even a recommended spot-start option for desperate AL-only leaguers.
  • Continuing the called-up theme, the Angels are expected to start AAA right-hander Anthony Ortega on Saturday in Anaheim against the Mariners. You can probably do better than Ortega even in deep AL-only leagues, but he's a much better spot-start option than Burres. Angel Stadium is a fair park for pitchers, especially at night, and the Mariners don't have a great offense. Carlos Silva will also be the opposing pitcher, so you can't ask for much more than that. Ortega does have some upside, although he hasn't been pitching well at AAA.
  • Bobby Abreu stole his 8th base of the season last night, which leads the big leagues. While he hasn't hit for any power yet (his 22 hits have resulted in 24 total bases and he has no home runs), fantasy owners have to love the barrage of steals, and he is hitting .373, after all. Already a high stolen base team, the Angels are likely to run even more now with Vladimir Guerrero out of the lineup. He won't maintain this stolen base pace, but Abreu could match his 20 stolen bases of last season by the All-Star break.
  • The Dodgers-Astros game last night featured three pitchers who are really excelling so far. Chad Billingsley could be emerging as an ace for fantasy owners, as his 7 1/3 innings of shutout ball improved his record to a perfect 4-0 in 4 starts. Billingsley has tossed a quality start each time out, and he has a 2.05 ERA in 26 1/3 innings with 26 K's against just 9 walks. If Billingsley can keep his K-BB ratio anywhere near 3-1, he will be a #1 for fantasy owners. Jonathan Broxton came in and got the final 5 outs for his second straight 5-out save, and he's a perfect 5-for-5 in save chances. Broxton struck out two, and actually gave up a hit, which is news considering the fact that the league is now batting .077 against him. The fact that Joe Torre is not going to be afraid of using him for more than one inning at a time will increase his strikeout total and Broxton has to be considered an elite #1 closer option going forward.
  • He got the loss last night while matched up against Billingsley and is now only 1-2, but Wandy Rodriguez is showing that he should be a mixed league starter. He's been excellent so far, and last night he went 6 innings and allowed just 1 run on 5 hits. He struck out 4 and walked 2. Rodriguez is sporting a 1.80 ERA and a .190 batting average against. Continue to start Wandy with confidence.
  • Jose Valverde was unavailable for the last two games with a sore calf and ankle, but should be able to close a game if necessary by tomorrow. Fantasy owners should keep him reserved today, but get him back in there tomorrow, unless something changes, of course. Check back for any change on his condition.
  • Joel Zumaya is going to get the call and rejoin the Tiger bullpen tomorrow. The most encouraging thing about Zumaya to report is that his velocity has been in the mid-90's with his fastball in his minor league appearances, and his last two appearances have been really solid. Zumaya doesn't have to throw 100 to be successful, so as long as he doesn't have wild command issues, he could contribute right away to a bullpen that could sorely use the help. Fernando Rodney has really been the only reliable guy back there for them. Rodney's job is definitely not in question at this point, but don't forget about Zumaya. He's still their closer-of-the-future. I'd recommend him as an add in AL-only formats with the room for setup relievers.

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Ryan Lands On DL, Downs To Close

Well, that certainly didn't take long. Last night, I wrote that B.J. Ryan was a clear and present danger to the Blue Jays. Today, he's been placed on the 15-Day DL, officially due to shoulder and back pain. Perhaps that could explain why Ryan's velocity has been noticeably lower since the start of the spring. In any case, Scott Downs will take over as closer for as long as Ryan is out, and Downs should be owned in AL-only leagues for sure. The Blue Jays are now dealing with yet another injury to a starting pitcher (Ricky Romero), but the team has 11 wins this season and is off to a hot start, so Downs certainly could get a fair amount of chances for a while.

Random Notes

Sorry for the light day of posting yesterday, but the Fantasy Leprechaun has a new addition to the family, in the form of a new dog, so I was running around all day and night. Let's touch on a few notes before we get to the main slate of games today...

  • B.J. Upton was able to play yesterday and should be back in the lineup again tonight, so his quad strain only cost him a game. He should certainly be activated in all leagues that allow daily moves.
  • Mike Pelfrey threw a successful bullpen session and appears on track to start on Saturday against the Nationals. While Pelfrey has looked less-than-impressive so far, NL-only leaguers will likely want him active for this start, since the Nats are terrible and since the game as at Citi Field.
  • Even though Chien-Ming Wing had a good game in extended spring training, the Yankees may place him on the DL anyway. If so, Phil Hughes is almost certain to get the ball on Tuesday for the Bombers. Hughes should be owned in all AL-only leagues as soon as he gets the call, and mixed leaguers should pay close attention. He has a world of talent and if he gets hot, it could be tough for the team to take him out of the rotation. I said before the season that I thought the opportunity would be there for Hughes to toss 100 innings or more for the big club and I still believe that.
  • A setback for Kelvim Escobar has pushed his return date back to June, at the earliest. Many fantasy owners, including myself, were hoping for an earlier return, but it's not going to happen now. Escobar's shoulder is still structurally sound, and the setback wasn't considered major, but he is going to need all of May in the minors to build his pitch count up. This new timetable is just another example of how risky the fragile-but-talented righty is. AL-only leaguers will want to continue to have him on their DL. I couldn't blame deeper mixed leaguers for looking at better options, though.
  • Ricky Romero has been placed on the 15-Day DL with a right oblique injury. Oddly enough, Romero first felt a twinge in the area after sneezing back on April 14. It hasn't improved, and an MRI exam revealed the problem. This certainly doesn't sound as serious as Chris Carpenter's injury, but these type of injuries can linger, so fantasy owners will just have to wait and see. Romero had been a popular add in mixed leagues this week; if you believed in him, and the injury doesn't look like much more than a two-week stay on the DL, you may as well hold onto him in mixed leagues.
  • Cole Hamels was hit by a Prince Fielder line drive in the 4th inning today and had to leave the game. The ball hit him somewhere near the left shoulder, it appeared. Hamels was actually throwing pretty well, with 6 strikeouts up to that point, so the main concern here is the possible injury, not the fact that Hamels took the loss. There should be an update on his condition later tonight or tomorrow.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Clear And Present Danger

Ok, so his name might not be Jack Ryan, but B.J. Ryan has become a clear and present danger for the Toronto Blue Jays. Ryan blew his second save of the season tonight, so my warning that he may not be all the way back was hopefully heeded by fantasy owners. His ERA now stands at over 11 for the season. Can Ryan end up having a solid season? Sure, it's possible. However, there is major risk now associated with him, and that's why I advised that guys like Chad Qualls and Brad Ziegler were safer options going forward. Even Ryan Franklin might be a safer option at this point. And Scott Downs should not be forgotten, either. If Ryan is replaced as the closer either due to ineffectiveness or injury, Downs could be a capable replacement. He's off to a great start, with a 1.04 ERA and 13 strikeouts in just 8 2/3 innings. Oh, he also has a 0.46 WHIP.

Twins And Red Sox To Double-Dip

Just a quick note, the Twins-Red Sox game that had been scheduled for Tuesday was rained out, so the two teams will play a doubleheader on Wednesday in Boston. In leagues with daily moves allowed, be sure to get all of your Twins and Red Sox into your lineups, because many of the starters will be getting you two games instead of just one, weather permitting.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Tuesday Tidbits

While the Pirates are proving to act as the Marlins' kryptonite, let's get to the action from today...

  • Matt Capps is now a perfect 4-for-4 in save chances and has yet to give up a run this season. Continue to view him as a high-end #2 closer.
  • Another encouraging outing from Anibal Sanchez in a losing cause. Sanchez threw 7 efficient innings, throwing 101 pitches and allowing 3 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks. He struck out 6. Sanchez was once considered the future ace of the staff and fantasy leaguers should not forget about his talent. Only owned in 12% of Yahoo leagues, Sanchez is putting himself more and more into consideration for mixed league owners with each successful start. There are definitely worse starting pitchers currently occupying roster spots in mixed leagues.
  • More surprising than Freddy Sanchez's .367 average so far is his .667 slugging percentage. Sanchez had 3 more hits tonight, two of them for extra bases (including his second HR of the year). I felt that Sanchez would get his average back to .300 again and be an asset in NL-only leagues, but if he can continue to be more than just a singles hitter he will be worthy of a spot in mixed leagues too.
  • Oliver Perez just isn't trustworthy as a mixed league play right now. Taking a 4-0 lead into the fifth inning, Perez coughed up 4 runs in the frame and could not complete it. He struck out 4, but he walked 5. Usually with Perez, you knew you'd get bad starts but you also knew he would be dominant at times. His stuff just isn't capable of being dominant right now. Whether it's arm fatigue from the WBC or something else, he just isn't the same as he was in the last two years. He's owned in 42% of Yahoo leagues, and that's too much.
  • Ryan Franklin may earn the nickname "The Franklin Mint" at this rate. Franklin earned his third save in as many chances tonight, and he has still not given up a run on the season. While he may not be the closer all season, the fact is that right now, he's emerged as the man for save chances for the Cards. For a team that should contend, Franklin has #2 closer value for as long as he holds the job.
  • Rich Harden will always be a major risk, which isn't news to anybody, but at least there should be no concerns about his stuff at the moment. Harden struck out 8 more hitters today in 6 innings, allowing 2 runs in picking up his first win of the season (he's now 1-1 with a 4.20 ERA). Harden has 26 strikeouts in just 15 innings now. I'll always recommend Harden as a good sell-high candidate, but make sure you get something good for him.
  • Ian Kinsler was probably the fantasy MVP last season at the time of his injury. Guess who's the #1 ranked hitter in Yahoo leagues so far? Kinsler is crazy hot right now, and he hit the go-ahead two-run HR off Roy Halladay tonight to help Texas to the win. Kinsler's line so far? That would be .453-.517-.906; NINE-ZERO-SIX! Kinsler can do it all, and he is showing that he should have been a first-round pick in drafts this season.
  • It hasn't been too bad for the Yankees as long as Chien-Ming Wang hasn't been pitching; Andy Pettite improved to 2-0 with 7 innings of 2-run ball for the win today against the A's. Strangely, Pettitte failed to register any strikeouts, but he also did not issue any walks. His owners will take it if he can give up two runs every time he takes the hill. Pettitte is still best-left for AL-only leagues, despite his hot start (2.53 ERA).
  • I still marvel at how good Mariano Rivera is. The guy doesn't look like he's lost anything to me. He notched his fourth save of the season in as many chances today, and he has not allowed a run so far. He's still an elite closer, folks.
  • After an 0-for-4 day, Eric Chavez is now batting a truly feeble .107, and it's painfully apparent that he is just not a major league hitter at this point. He can still field, but his shoulder injuries have just completely sapped all of his hitting ability. Chavez shouldn't even be owned in most AL-only leagues. It's starting to look like a once-promising career is going to be cut short due to a shredded shoulder.
  • Clayton Kershaw gave up 6 runs in 4 1/3 innings, and 8 hits, but it's not like guys were hitting line drives all over the yard, other than the Carlos Lee two-run homer. (Trust me, I watched every pitch.) There were some seeing-eye singles, and home plate umpire Ed Montague's strike zone was Calista Flockhart-esque. (You know, small.) In any case, there's no reason to fret over one bad outing from Kershaw. He should be active in all formats.
  • Also, Matt Kemp owners, take my word for this: Kemp will be moving up in the order very soon. Joe Torre wasn't going to change his lineup with the Dodgers in the midst of an eight-game winning streak, and that certainly made sense. But Kemp is batting .392 and slugging .745, and the #5 and #6 hitters, James Loney and Russell Martin, are slugging a combined .609, or 136 points lower than Kemp. Not that Kemp really needs a good lineup spot to produce right now, but batting higher would certainly stand to only help him.
  • Loney, especially, is not getting around on anything with authority at all, not even his outs. While Loney is likely to rack up decent RBI numbers, his lack of power since the 2007 season is starting to become a concern. Loney should still be on mixed league rosters at least as a backup or utility guy, but he should not be your starting first baseman for sure.
  • Coco Crisp is only hitting .222, but he is actually doing a good job out of the leadoff spot for the Royals, with a .375 OBP. He's also making his hits count, with a .556 slugging percentage. Crisp owners were clamoring for him to steal his first base of the season, though, and he finally did that today. I still expect Crisp to run more once the weather warms up and I think he will prove to be a mixed league asset this season.
  • I've seen enough; Victor Martinez is officially back. V-Mart came up with a 4-for-5 game today, including his 5th homer of the season. He is at .397-.463-.707 and could be one of the best bargains of the season for fantasy owners. He very well could end up as fantasy's best catcher, and the fact that he will suffer significantly less wear and tear on his body by virtue of his starting at first base often just increases his value even further.
  • Spring Training is a funny thing. Scott Lewis had a great spring, Aaron Laffey had a terrible one, and Lewis was named to the Cleveland starting rotation while Laffey was demoted to AAA. Lewis then proceeded to get lit up in his lone start and then had to go to the DL. Laffey was then called up to take his place in the rotation, and Laffey picked up his first win of the season today and is now sporting a solid 2.19 ERA in his two starts. Laffey went 7 innings today and gave up just one run. Laffey is a worthwhile AL-only league play for as long as he's in the rotation. If he keeps pitching well, it's likely he'll stay in the rotation over Lewis even when Lewis comes back.
  • Manny Parra fell to 0-3 after another poor start at Philadelphia, tossing just 4 innings and giving up 5 runs. Parra has not been able to get deep into games at all since last August, and his potential is simply not leading to results right now. Leave him for NL-only play right now; if you own him in a deeper mixed league, it's best to reserve him until he turns it around. Actually, you can feel free to search for better options in deeper mixed leagues too, such as Anibal Sanchez (Parra is owned in 31% of Yahoo leagues compared to just 12% for Sanchez).
  • Ryan Braun was the entire Brewer offense today, going 5-for-5 and driving in all 4 runs in the loss, with 2 homers as part of the onslaught. The big effort got his line all the way up to .300-.397-.540 on the year. Hopefully this is a sign that the oblique injury that was bothering Braun is now a thing of the past.
  • There's been an Alexei Ramirez sighting! Ramirez has started terribly, but he did go 2-for-4 today with his first stolen base of the season. Ramirez was quite streaky last season, so this could be the time to make sure that he's in your starting lineup. I benched him in one of my mixed leagues over the weekend, but I have him back in there now. Ramirez is too talented to stay in the funk he's been in.
  • Being moved to the #8 spot in the order has seemed to light a fire under veteran shortstop Edgar Renteria. The usual #2 hitter was hitting about .150 at the time of the switch last week, but after a 3-for-4 game tonight--including a grand slam off Jake Peavy--he's up to .250 for the season. In addition, the man inserted into the #2 spot, Emmanuel Burriss, is struggling, at just .171 following an 0-for-4 game tonight. Renteria could be moving back up soon, increasing his appeal in NL-only leagues.
  • Is Jarrod Washburn channeling 2002? The veteran lefty is off to an incredible start, improving to 3-0 with 7 innings of 2-run ball tonight. While that in and of itself isn't unheard of, Washburn struck out 9 batters tonight, and he's a finesse pitcher. His ERA stands at a trim 1.71, and perhaps he is in the midst of a contract drive (he's a free agent at season's end). I still can't recommend him in mixed leagues, but his stock is certainly climbing.
  • Brandon Morrow owners have to be very excited at his fourth save of the season tonight. And not because he struck out a batter, but because he threw 14 pitches and only 2 of them were balls. If Morrow isn't issuing free passes, he's going to be incredibly successful. Morrow may have been drafted in March as a young starter with strikeout upside, but now he is a #2 closer with #1 closer upside.
  • Yes, he had two hits tonight, and yes, the Angels won the game over the Tigers, but the fact that Maicer Izturis is the #3 hitter on a major league baseball team is beyond ridiculous. Seriously, Mike Scioscia, that's the best lineup you think you can put out there? This isn't incredibly fantasy-relevant, since Izturis should only be rostered in deep AL-only leagues, but I just find it so absurd. Oh, and he started as the DH, no less. Good grief. Brandon Wood is rolling in his grave and the guy isn't even dead yet. Let me make this clear to you, Mr. Scioscia: if Izturis is not playing shorstop or second base, he has no business being in a major league lineup. Period.
  • As much as Scioscia deserves criticism, Rockies Manager Clint Hurdle really deserves credit for playing his talented young hitters as much as possible, and for being creative in doing so. Ian Stewart has been hot, so Hurdle had him in there again tonight for the fourth straight game (he went 1-for-5 with an RBI). Dexter Fowler has shown a lot of promise and he improves the outfield defense considerably, so he has been starting more often than not and Seth Smith has rightfully taken a seat (with Ryan Spilborghs shifting over to left field). With Troy Tulowitzki scuffling for the last week, Hurdle had him sit and shifted Clint Barmes over to shorstop, with Stewart playing second base. Stewart is a player I really liked going into the season and I'm not backing off on him; it makes logical sense for mixed league owners to roster Stewart at least as a backup infielder, because once he does become an everyday player he will be an almost-certain starter at second base for fantasy owners (regardless of where he's actually playing for the Rockies).
  • As for Fowler, I'm not quite as high on him as I am Stewart, but he still has to be owned in NL-only leagues (obviously) and should be kept on the mixed league radar. There are probably too many quality outfielders available right now on waiver wires for Fowler to warrant a mixed league roster spot in most leagues, but if he becomes a true everyday player, Fowler should be rostered in most mixed leagues. There will be bumps in the road, but he can hit for a little bit of power, he will steal a lot of bases, and don't forget the help of his home ballpark. If he played a full season, at least 15 homers and at least 25 steals would be likely. And I'm probably shortchanging him on the steals.

Devine's Season Over

Well, it's official. Joey Devine will miss the 2009 season after undergoing elbow surgery today. Hopefully this surgery will get Devine right and will make him a factor in 2010 for the A's, but so far the youngster has had a very checkered injury history. If you haven't already dropped Devine in any non-keeper league, you may do so now. And given his injury history, you're probably being optimistic if you're expecting him to be Oakland's closer next season.

This news also reinforces the fact that Brad Ziegler will be Oakland's closer this season for as long as he can remain effective. I still maintain that he may not be as a full-time closer, and that Santiago Casilla is a deep sleeper for saves in Oakland later this season. Particularly if the A's fall out of the race in the second half, although this year the AL West could be up for grabs.

Wood Gets The Call

The Angels recalled Brandon Wood today from the minors, and we'll see if the power-hitting prospect can finally stick in Anaheim. In three previous stints with the big club in 2007 and 2008, Wood was abysmal, batting just .191 in 183 at-bats. As if that wasn't bad enough, he looked overmatched, with 55 strikeouts and just 4 walks. Wood really has nothing left to prove in the minors, so now he has to show that he's a big leaguer. And the Angels need to give him a chance to show that he can be. This is a big moment for Wood--he can either hit his way into the Angels' long-term plans, or he can falter again and be a likely trade candidate.

As far as how fantasy owners should view him, Wood should be owned in most AL-only formats and should be somebody that mixed leaguers keep on the radar. He's not going to start over Chone Figgins, but it's not like Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis are world-beaters at shortstop. If Wood can get starts at shortstop, he would be an intriguing option there because of his power potential. Wood could also get some starts as the DH.

The X-Man Avoids Surgery

Xavier Nady will not require surgery on his right elbow, as he will attempt to rehab a partial ligament tear (rather than go under the knife). Still, he will be out for a minimum of a month, and very likely a bit longer than that. For those mixed league owners that were holding onto Nady, I still advise that it's OK to cut bait and acquire a better player for your roster. Even when Nady comes back, Nick Swisher is going to be entrenched into a full-time role, and at best Nady will probably be a platoon DH with Hideki Matsui (and on the wrong side of the platoon, too, as the right-handed hitter). Nady could still have value in AL-only leagues, but quite frankly I'm not expecting much out of him for the rest of the season. As for Nick Swisher owners, you really have nothing to worry about here, because Nady's elbow injury almost certainly will prevent him from playing the outfield.

McCann Better, In Lineup Tonight

In welcome catcher-related fantasy news (as opposed to the blow that was dealt to Ryan Doumit owners today), Brian McCann's blurred vision in his left eye has apparently improved so much that he's back in the lineup tonight against the Nationals. McCann has had new contact lenses put in and much of his problems dissipated right away. Hopefully, this is the end of McCann's eye ordeal, as it was a bit scary for a few days there. Plug McCann back into your lineups and hope that he's over his eye issues.

Doumit Out 8-10 Weeks

In a big blow for Ryan Doumit owners, the slugging catcher will be out of action for 8-10 weeks after breaking a bone in his right wrist. When Doumit originally injured the wrist on Sunday, it was thought that he would only miss a few games at most, so this is certainly terrible news after the break was found.

The Pirates' new starting catcher will be Jason Jaramillo, who has very little fantasy value and is not a realistic option for Doumit owners in NL-only leagues. In mixed leagues, certainly owners of Doumit should DL him and look at the best available options for the 8-10 weeks that Doumit will miss. Possible options here for mixed leaguers would be Yadier Molina (59% owned in Yahoo leagues), Kelly Shoppach (31% owned), John Baker (23% owned), John Buck (22% owned), and Gerald Laird (10% owned).

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Sunday Notes

Two weeks of baseball are now in the books, and we have a lot to get to today. Other than the rainout between the Cubs and Cardinals, every other team was on the diamond today, of course, on a Sunday. While the Marlins and Dodgers continue to surge and the Angels and Nationals continue to flounder, here are the fantasy-relevant tidbits from today's play...

Jensen Lewis became the latest Yankee Stadium victim today, as Jorge Posada took him "deep" for a go-ahead home run in the 7th inning. I used quotations because Posada's flyball to right field couldn't have been hit more than 320 feet, and he was actually jammed on the pitch. In watching a few games from the new Yankee Stadium, I'm struck by how little outfield grass is between the infield dirt where the second baseman plays to the right field wall. I've seen enough already to upgrade Yankee left-handed hitters plus Derek Jeter, who is an opposite-field hitter.

In a battle of young lefties, Ricky Romero outdueled Dallas Braden today and helped the Blue Jays defeat the A's in Toronto. Romero is now 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA following his 7 innings of shutout ball. He struck out 6 and gave up just 4 hits and 2 walks. As for Braden, he fell to 1-2 despite 7 1/3 great innings, allowing just one run on 5 hits and 3 walks, while striking out four. His ERA is now a very good 2.79, as well. Romero has emerged as a pretty solid AL-only league play early on, and I'm getting close to recommending him in deeper mixed leagues too. Obviously, we only have three major league starts to base information on for Romero, but it looks to me like he has a really live fastball and a sharp breaking slider, and he has the ability to be a pretty decent strikeout pitcher (though he has only 13 K's in 21 IP so far). Braden doesn't have the same upside as Romero, but certainly should be viewed as a decent AL-only league option.

Saving the win for Romero was B.J. Ryan, and with apologies to Carly Simon, he could be coming around again. Just as soon as I wrote that Ryan was an extremely shaky play going forward, his velocity has crept back up into the 87-88 MPH range, and Ryan can be effective as long as his fastball is at-or-near 90 MPH. When I wrote about Ryan's fragile status last Saturday, it looked to me like he was at about 85-86 MPH. If Ryan isn't injured, and if he can keep his velocity at around 89-90 MPH going forward, he will probably be a worthwhile high-end #2 closer in fantasy again. Not a #1 like in his heyday, but his value is a lot higher right now than it was one week ago. I still am not quite convinced his problems are all the way behind him, though.

As much as Yankee Stadium is helping hitters, Citi Field is helping pitchers. It looks like there is about 30-40 more feet of outfield grass in right field at Citi Field as opposed to Yankee Stadium. Consider today, when Jeff Suppan was able to pitch 6 innings of 2-run ball in a win. Suppan was absolutely lit up in his first two starts, and is a low-end starting pitcher even in NL-only leagues. It's going to be hard to give up home runs in that park, it's just as simple as that, and that's going to help below-average pitchers become average, average ones become good ones, good ones become...well, you get the idea. Fantasy owners in NL-only leagues could do well to select a seemingly average pitcher as a matchup play in starts there. Even a below-average emergency starter, Nelson Figueroa, gave the Mets a quality start in a losing effort today (6 IP, 3 ER), in place of Mike Pelfrey. Give a bump up in value to each Met starter, and also to any visiting starter that takes the mound at Citi Field. Consequently, give a slight drop in value to Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, and David Wright (though the latter two are good enough in virtually every category to still be great fantasy stars).

I'd like to say a big "I told you so" about Jon Lester, because he was back on the beam today, pitching 7 innings of shutout ball and improving his record to 1-2. Lester threw the ball fine in his first two starts with good velocity, and simply had a couple of fluky, bad innings that hurt him. There was no such bad luck today, and nobody should be shocked at his 9-strikeout performance. Lester is a rock-solid pitcher and fantasy owners should continue to view him as a #2 starter in mixed leagues. Oh, and not to worry, Jonathan Papelbon owners. Takashi Saito picked up the save today simply because Papelbon had saved the previous two games and Terry Francona wasn't going to use him three days in a row.

Javier Vazquez continued his early-season strikeout prowess today, going 6 innings and striking out 8 more batters in claiming his first win of the season. Vazquez, now 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA, has pitched 18 innings this season and has struck out a whopping 25 batters. As one of the most dependable strikeout artists you can find, Vazquez certainly should be on all mixed league rosters. View him as a #3 type with the upside to be a #2 if he can lower his ERA to the mid-to-high 3's. As for Vazquez's counterpart today, Zach Duke threw 6 innings and gave up 6 runs on 12 hits with just 2 strikeouts, which is why he can't be viewed as anything more than NL-only league fodder.

Carlos Quentin is now slugging .814 after hitting his 7th home run today. Carlos, we get it. Your wrist isn't a problem. You are upset that you didn't get a chance to finish last season and you're on a mission . We really get it. Quentin owners, I've said this before and I'll say it again: he's for real. Don't sell high. Chris Getz again hit leadoff for the Pale Hose and went 2-6 with 2 RBI; Getz is now hitting a respectable .281 with a .343 OBP. The White Sox actually touched up Matt Garza for 7 runs, but don't get up in arms over one bad start, Garza owners.

B.J. Upton owners are going to have to check the injury reports each day going forward, because he had to leave the game today in the 2nd inning due to right quadriceps tightness. Listening to Manager Joe Maddon, it seems that Upton's injury isn't a major one, but he should miss a few days. In leagues with only weekly transactions it's probably best to reserve Upton for this coming week.

Heath Bell has been so valuable to the surprising Padres that his not being available to pitch today probably cost them a win. Bell, 7-for-7 in save chances, had to watch as the Padres blew a one-run lead in the 9th inning against the Phillies. Raul Ibanez hit a walk-off two-run homer, and is now up to .386-.438-.864 on the season, with 5 homers and 10 RBI. Ibanez wasn't as popular a choice on draft day as he should have been because of his age, but Ibanez has been remarkably consistent in the last few years, and his move to an extreme hitter's park in Philadelphia more than makes up for age concerns. Ibanez has to be starting in all mixed league formats right now, and I'm certainly glad that I have him in one of my leagues.

Speaking of the Phillies, J.A. Happ's NL-only league value could be going up, because it may not be too much longer before he and Chan Ho Park switch roles. Park beat out Happ for the fifth starter role in the spring, but Park is now sporting an ERA of 8.68 after allowing 4 runs in 5 innings today. Happ, meanwhile, came in for Park in the long relief role and tossed 3 scoreless innings, and his ERA stands at an impressive 2.35 thus far. A switch isn't being talked about just yet by the Phillies, but I'll go ahead and get the ball rolling for them. I think Happ would be a decent NL-only league starter if he got into the rotation, so keep your eye on him.

Glen Perkins needs to be lauded for his remarkable consistency through his first three starts. Perkins has thrown 8 innings in each of his first three starts now, and his ERA is at just 1.50 after giving up just a single run in his 8 innings today. Perkins is going to be best-left for AL-only leagues because his strikeout total isn't high and eventually, the balls in play against him will translate into more hits allowed and more runs allowed. He's a recommended sell-high due to his crazy-good start. However, I like Perkins to be a pretty solid starter this year. I actually owned him two years ago, so I certainly have believed in his ability for a while, at least as an AL-only league type.

Edinson Volquez is struggling with his command early in the season, and he walked 5 more batters in 6 innings today. But on the plus side, Volquez only allowed one run, and he struck out 6 in a winning effort. Despite his high 6.46 ERA, Volquez is now 2-1 (with 15 K's in 15 1/3 IP), and if he can just iron out his command issues he'll be fine. While some regression from last year is certainly likely, his strikeout potential and overall talent certainly make him a mixed league starter. If you think you have a panicking Volquez owner on your hands, feel free to try to buy low.

Chris Volstad didn't have his command today, as he only lasted 4 1/3 innings. Volstad did strike out 5, but he also walked 5 and gave up 3 runs. Giving up 3 runs is hardly a shellacking, though, and Volstad should still be on mixed league rosters. With the Marlins coming from behind to beat the Nationals--again--Volstad wasn't even saddled with the loss, so he's still 2-0 on the season, though his ERA did go up to 2.76 (still very good). Matt Lindstrom earned his third save (in 4 chances) and has looked progressively better each time out. Lindstrom has the upside to be a low-end #1 fantasy closer if the Marlins are NL East contenders all year because of the team's win potential and Lindstrom's strikeout potential, but the risk associated with him makes him more of a #2 option. However, few #2 closers offer his upside.

Emilio Bonifacio was red-hot in week one, and he was ice-cold in week two. After an 0-4 game today, Bonifacio is now batting "only" .321 on the season. (I say "only" because he was hitting over .500 entering the week.) While some mixed league owners will drop him, figuring that he is just a flash in the pan, I would not advise doing so. While he obviously is not as good as his first-week run, he's not as bad as his second-week numbers, either, and all he would really have to do is bat .280 to justify a spot on mixed league rosters. As long as he's batting leadoff for the powerful Marlins lineup, he's going to score a bevy of runs and steal a lot of bases, so don't waive him. At worst he should be a backup infielder on a mixed league team. Granted, if his slide continues for a couple more weeks, I'll be the first to say it's alright to jump ship. But not yet.

In thinking of the Royals, let's first get to the good news. Kyle Davies continued his impressive start to the season, as he tossed 6 innings of 3-run ball at Texas (anytime you can come away with a quality start in a game at Texas, you've done well), and he fanned 8 batters. Davies received a no-decision, and still stands at 1-0 with a 2.89 ERA. Davies has now struck out 21 batters in 18 2/3 innings on the season. I am skeptical that Davies can keep up this strikeout and ERA pace, so for now I'm still recommending Davies as being better suited for AL-only leagues at the moment. That said, he's clearly on the mixed league radar, and he also makes for a good sell-high candidate.

As for the bad news regarding the Royals...Kyle Farnsworth is just killing them! Farnsworth served up yet another game-winning home run, this one to Michael Young in the 9th inning of a tie game. The walk-off HR by Young leaves Farnsworth with an 0-3 record and a ghastly 18.90 ERA. Considering that the Royals are a solid 7-5 to begin the season, Farnsworth is personally responsible for the team not having a chance to be 10-2. If the team is trying to actually contend, Farnsworth's big contract can't matter right now. He shouldn't be used in meaningful situations in games and he shouldn't be anywhere near even AL-only league rosters.

Talk about getting back on track...Randy Johnson took a no-hitter into the 7th inning today against his former club, the D'backs. Johnson ended up throwing 7 scoreless innings, allowing just a single base hit without a run, along with 7 strikeouts and just 2 walks. While Johnson's 1-2 record and 6.32 ERA don't look great, a closer look reveals a 1.21 WHIP and 19 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings. As long as Johnson is healthy, he should be starting in mixed leagues. Johnson bested Max Scherzer in a young vs. old matchup, but the youngster wasn't bad. Scherzer went 5 innings and gave up just one run, striking out 6 and allowing just 3 hits. However, he walked 4, which is why he threw 104 pitches in just the 5 innings. Scherzer is likely to have command issues for a while, but his incredible upside warrants mixed league status for him.

Lastly, I would be remiss if I didn't mention the games Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier had for the Dodgers today. Kemp, batting 7th in the order in virtually every game this season, could care less where he's hitting...he's just hitting! Kemp had a 3-for-5 game, with a fantasy-friendly 3 runs, 5 RBI, 2 homers (including a grand slam), a double, and 10 total bases. Kemp has played in 12 of 13 games and has at least one hit in all 12 of his appearances; he's at .383-.434-.723 on the season with 3 homers, 14 RBI, 12 runs, and 4 steals. He's the second-ranked hitter in Yahoo leagues early on. As for Ethier, he had a 2-for-4 game with 3 RBI, and now has a whopping 16 RBI on the season with 4 homers. He's scored 11 runs and even stolen a base, too. Ethier is the 15th-ranked hitter in Yahoo leagues early on. You should be very happy if you own one of them, let alone two, in mixed leagues, and I happen to own both of them in an NL-only league. Think I'm off to a fast start in that league? Uh, yeah, you'd be correct!

Saturday, April 18, 2009

Saturday Notes

While Chien-Ming Wang was as terrible as Zack Greinke was great today, we certainly have a lot of other things to discuss from today's play on the diamond. Let's get to it...

Kevin Millwood had the misfortune of being matched up against Greinke today, but he, too, was great, suffering the hard-luck loss despite tossing a complete game himself. Millwood only struck out 3, but also only allowed 5 hits and 3 walks, giving up just 2 runs. He has a sparkling 1.17 ERA in his 3 starts with a 1-1 record. Millwood is still best left for AL-only leagues, but his start is certainly very encouraging. This could come under the category of "contract drive", because Millwood's option for 2010 becomes guaranteed if he pitches well enough this season.

Andre Ethier showed today why he loved batting in front of Manny Ramirez last season, as he hit in the two-hole today and responded with 2 homers and 4 RBI. Ethier is a solid play regardless of where he hits in the lineup, although obviously anybody would want to hit in front of Manny Ramirez. (With Rafael Furcal getting the day off today, Orlando Hudson was leading off with Ethier hitting second.) Matt Kemp moved up to fifth and had a hit, RBI, and a steal. Kemp, like Ethier, is going to get his numbers no matter where he hits in the order. Oh, by the way, Manny hit his first two homers of the season. That comes under the category of "bound to happen."

Chad Billingsley continued the Dodger starting pitcher strikeout surge (6 IP, 6 K), and is now 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA. That concern early in the spring that his leg might not be strong enough is gone. Billingsley is a great #2 for your staff with the possible upside to be a #1; he'll have the ERA and he'll have the strikeouts, but in leagues with WHIP he loses a little bit of value, although a step up in that category this season is certainly possible. The Dodgers are getting a lot of K's from Billingsley (21 K's in 19 IP), Randy Wolf (17 K's in 18 1/3 IP), and of course Clayton Kershaw (19 K's in just 12 IP).

There's a lot to discuss following Cleveland's absolute drubbing of the Yankees earlier today. The Indians pounded out 25 hits on their way to scoring 22 runs in a 22-4 T-Ball-like rout. Mark DeRosa had a slow first week of the season, but is now up to 15 RBI after a 6-RBI day. DeRosa had 4 hits, one of which went for his third home run of the season. DeRosa should be owned in mixed leagues because he's not only in a good spot in a great lineup, but he's also eligible at 2B, 3B, and the outfield in most fantasy leagues, adding to his value. Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner continued their power surge, both homering (it was the fourth homer of the year for each), and you can't blame their owners for being giddy over their starts to the season. Grady Sizemore, Jhonny Peralta, and Shin-Soo Choo also had big days, as did Asdrubal Cabrera. You know Sizemore and Peralta are mixed league stalwarts, and Choo is showing that he's a mixed league starter when healthy. As for Cabrera, he's still AL-only material despite the 4-hit, 5-RBI effort today that leaves him hitting .351 now. As for Chien-Ming Wang, well, see my separate post about him to see just how bad he was today, and how bad he's been in his 3 starts so far. Be afraid...be very afraid.

It was a pretty predictable outing for Jo-Jo Reyes, as the young, talented-but-erratic lefty gave up 5 runs in 5 2/3 innings. Reyes did strike out 4, but he also walked 3 and gave up 7 hits. Reyes figures to get another turn in the rotation next week, but with the Braves now in the midst of a 5-game losing streak, could Tommy Hanson's debut be nearing? I'm ready to cue up the "MMM Bop" references already. Stay tuned.

Ian Snell tossed 7 scoreless innings in defeating the Braves, so the inconsistent-but-talented righty is now at 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA for the season. Snell is just as likely to not make it through 5 innings in his next start, so he's definitely best left for NL-only leagues at this point. Snell is one of those guys that has the potential to figure it all out though, kind of like Ervin Santana did last season, so keep him on the mixed league radar at least.

Joel Hanrahan is now 0-for-2 in save chances, blowing his second chance in as many days today. In doing so, he spoiled a strong effort from Scott Olsen, who had been lit up in his first two starts. Hanrahan is not going to get a lot of chances to save games for the Nationals, and if this is what he's going to do with the rare save opportunities he gets, he's not worth a roster spot in most mixed leagues. There's no obvious replacement for him in the Washington bullpen, though, so his job is still safe for now. But if you do own Hanrahan in a mixed league, you have to do your due diligence and see if there are better options on the waiver wire. Pretty much any closer would be a better option at this point, which could include names like Fernando Rodney, George Sherrill, and the newly-named closer Manny Corpas.

Johan Santana is pitching brilliant baseball and he's getting help from his bullpen, too. If it weren't for a Daniel Murphy dropped fly ball, Johan would be 3-0 after his outstanding 7 innings of shutout ball today (with 7 K's and no walks). As it is, Johan is still 2-1 with a hobbit-like 0.46 ERA. In both of Johan's wins, J.J. Putz and Francisco Rodriguez pitched scoreless innings, so the overhaul of the Met bullpen is working, at least so far. Johan has certainly shown that he's over his arm issues this spring (unlike Cole Hamels, who isn't quite all the way back yet).

Yovani Gallardo was also brilliant today, as he got a no-decision while being matched up against Johan. Gallardo tossed 6 shutout innings and struck out 7, giving up just 5 hits and 2 walks. Gallardo had a bad start last time out, but he lowered his ERA to 4.58 with the strong effort today and fantasy owners should start him with confidence in mixed leagues going forward.

Kyle Lohse showed why he's a better play at home, as he gave up 4 runs in 5 innings in a no-decision at Wrigley Field today. At least he didn't take the loss, but still, don't say that the Fantasy Leprechaun didn't tell you that it is a good idea to bench Lohse for his road starts in mixed leagues. The evidence just doesn't lie with Lohse.

If this were a SportsCenter episode circa 1999, Dan Patrick might say "Kevin Youkilis, dare I say...en fuego!" Youk churned out 4 more hits, a homer, and 4 more RBI today. He now stands at .467-.529-.778 on the season, with 3 homers and 9 RBI. And the only reason his RBI total isn't higher is because the highest OBP of the 1-3 hitters in the Boston lineup belongs to Dustin Pedroia at just .308. The Greek God of Walks isn't going anywhere, folks.

Mark Buehrle is now off to 2-0, 3.00 ERA start, which is yet another example of why not to get alarmed over spring stats for established starting pitchers. Buehrle wasn't great today, but he did turn in a quality start in limiting the Rays to 3 runs in 6 2/3 innings, striking out 5 batters. Buehrle is not a high-upside mixed league starter but he deserves to start in most mixed league formats because of his consistency. How do we view proven consistency, class? We value it!

As for another installment of White Sox leadoff watch, Chris Getz and Brent Lillibridge have actually been getting on base in Chicago's last 3 games. Today, it was Lillibridge getting the start at second base and batting leadoff, and although he went 0-2, he walked three times and scored twice. Ozzie Guillen will take that. Even if the two second baseman can do enough to solve the leadoff problem, center field could be a problem because Brian Anderson went 0-3 today and is now hitting a paltry .176; if Anderson and Jerry Owens continue to falter, pressure will be put on GM Kenny Williams to bring in a guy like Juan Pierre or Aaron Rowand. Obviously Pierre owners in deep leagues would love such a move, and Rowand owners should like it, too, because he would go from an extreme pitcher's park to a hitter's yard. In other White Sox news, Alexei Ramirez is now at .125 after an 0-5 day, so consider benching him if your backup to him is hot (at either SS or 2B). It should go without saying that you aren't waiving Ramirez. But there's nothing wrong with sitting him down for a few days if you have a backup that's playing well right now.

Chone Figgins and Bobby Abreu continue to run wild, as Figgins stole his MLB-leading seventh base today and Abreu stole his sixth. It's not too surprising to see Figgins running like this, but it's encouraging to see Abreu running so often. Those thinking that Abreu's steals would increase from going to Mike Scioscia's run-happy system were right on the money. Abreu's homers and RBI total could fall a little bit, but his fantasy value really shouldn't be much different from last year because of the increase in stolen bases.

Jason Kubel continued his hot streak today, as he rapped out 4 more hits, and he's now up to .366-.395-.634 with 12 RBI on the season. Kubel's cycle only got his owned-percentage to 10% today, from 8% yesterday (in Yahoo leagues). It should be noted that Kubel was given a start against a lefty today (Darren Oliver) and had a great game again today. I like Kubel a lot and think he should be owned in much more than 10% of mixed leagues.

Brendan Harris started his second straight game over Alexi Casilla at second base today, and collected 3 hits. Harris is now hitting .435 in limited action and could see a slight increase in playing time going forward. Casilla is still the starter, but he will need to start playing better to keep Harris from getting at-bats. Casilla is clearly nothing more than an AL-only league option at this point.

Kevin Slowey got back on the beam today, going 7 innings and allowing just 2 runs on 6 hits and a walk. The control artist improved to 2-0 on the season and lowered his ERA to 5.89. Slowey certainly is lucky that he hasn't lost a game yet, since he got hit pretty hard in his first two starts, but he apparently worked on correcting a flaw in his delivery before today's start and he certainly got results. Slowey should be owned in most mixed leagues that have WHIP as a category, because he will very rarely walk hitters. In leagues without WHIP as a category, he becomes better suited for AL-only leagues.

Tim Lincecum showed that his first two starts were just an aberration, as he tossed 8 masterful innings today. As it turned out, he got a no-decision, but Lincecum did not give up a run and struck out a whopping 13 batters (duplicating Clayton Kershaw's effort earlier in the week). Lincecum gave up only 5 hits and walked none. He lowered his ERA to 3.86, and expect that number to be much lower than that at season's end. For those of you worried that Lincecum wasn't going to be a #1 for fantasy owners this season, shame on you!

Doug Davis was equal to the task against Lincecum today, as he got the win and improved to 1-2 after throwing 8 impressive innings. Davis gave up 8 hits and a walk, while striking out 6 hitters, and his ERA now stands at 2.57 for the season. Surely the Giants' middling lineup had something to do with this, and Davis should not be on mixed league rosters. Nevertheless, his start to the season is certainly encouraging for his owners in NL-only formats. Chad Qualls pitched a scoreless 9th inning for the save, striking out the side, and is now 2 for 3 in save opportunities this season. Most impressive is that he's now struck out 8 batters in just 4 innings so far. Qualls could be a high-end #2 closer in fantasy if he can be a strikeout-per-inning guy; for his career he's been under a strikeout per inning.

It might be time for mixed league fantasy owners to pick up Wandy Rodriguez. The flying-under-the-radar lefty is still available in 60% of Yahoo leagues, although I expect that number to go down tomorrow, but it won't go down enough. If you look at Rodriguez's 2007 season, and then see what he would have done with a full season last year, his excellence is not a fluke. I'm on the Wandy bandwagon big time. He should be owned in mixed leagues. He has started the season 1-1 with a sparkling 1.89 ERA after his 7 innings of shutout baseball today against the Reds. He struck out 10 today and gave up just 2 hits and 2 walks. Rodriguez has now struck out 18 batters in 19 innings. Jump on the Wandy train while you can!

What in the name of Jerry Coleman is going on with the San Diego Padres? The Padres, a team that I truly believed was the worst in baseball opening the season, are now 9-3 after scoring 4 runs in the top of the 9th inning to overtake the Phillies tonight. The Padres ended Brad Lidge's saves streak as well; Lidge blew his first save in a Phillies uniform and his first one since the 2007 season. While Lidge clearly gets a pass for one blown save, his ERA does stand at over 9 now and he's been less-than-clean in most of his appearances early on. It's possible that his workload from last season is having an effect on him this season, and it's the reason I was more confident in Frankie Rodriguez than I was in Lidge this season. Still, Lidge's velocity looks good, so don't be too alarmed about a blown save. As for San Diego, Heath Bell came in and locked up the save, and he is now a sterling 7-for-7 in save chances already. Bell still hasn't given up a run, and he has struck out 8 batters in 6 2/3 innings. Shawn Hill started for the Friars and was respectable, tossing 5 innings of 2-run ball, while striking out 3 and allowing just 3 hits and a walk. Hill is best used as an NL-only league option in home starts, but if he can stay healthy he may earn NL-only league road starts too. He isn't a mixed league option, certainly.

Finally, there are 3 positive tidbits that came out of the Tigers-Mariners game at Safeco Field. Edwin Jackson continued his strong start to the season, as he threw 7 innings of shutout baseball for the win, his first of the season, while striking out 6 batters and giving up just 5 hits and a walk. Jackson, you'll recall, had an earlier possible win blown by the Tiger bullpen, so he's only 1-0, but he has a great 2.14 ERA. I don't trust Jackson as a mixed league option long-term, but feel free to roll the dice if you are in a deep mixed league and you have interchangeable parts at the end of your pitching staff. Otherwise, he's still best-left for AL-only leagues. Erik Bedard continued his strong early-season run despite taking the loss; he went 6 innings and allowed just one run, striking out 8 batters. His ERA is now just 1.86 for the season. As I've said, ability isn't the issue for Bedard, durability is, so he should be in mixed league rotations for as long as he is healthy. The last bit of good news is that Fernando Rodney continues to do a good job, as he pitched a scoreless 9th inning for his third save in as many chances. He has yet to give up a run so far, and he has passed Joel Hanrahan as a low-end #2 closer in my mind.