The Giants optioned Kevin Frandsen to AAA today, so it's official that Emmanuel Burriss will be the starting second baseman on Opening Day. This was a legitimate open competition entering the spring, and Burriss earned the nod, as he is hitting over .350 right now. Because Burriss is a switch-hitter, he won't have to be a platoon player as long as he's hitting OK from both sides, adding to his value a little bit. (It's pretty clear that if the Giants' plan was to sit Burriss vs. lefties, Frandsen would've made the team.) Burriss is a consideration for NL-only leaguers, because if he held the job all season he would likely steal 25-35 bases (he stole 13 last season in just 240 at-bats). In fact, Burriss has a good chance to steal the second-most bases of any NL second baseman behind Brandon Phillips, and there's even a chance he could steal more than Phillips. If you find that your team is set with power but could use a little stolen base thievery to the mix, Burriss is somebody you can definitely consider. He is a slap-hitter and won't give you anything in the power categories, but could be a poor man's Luis Castillo (the version of Castillo prior to last season), and probably won't hurt you in batting average.
As for Frandsen, at least he showed he was healthy this spring after rupturing his Achilles tendon in the spring last year, and he didn't hit badly (he finished the spring at .274). If Burriss falters, Frandsen would almost certainly get the call. Frandsen is a better pure hitter than Burriss, but would have less fantasy value than Burriss if he got regular starts because Frandsen wouldn't be likely to have excellent numbers in any category (though he wouldn't hurt your batting average). Frandsen would've only been a stopgap option in NL-only leagues, and now that he has been optioned to the minors he obviously should go undrafted.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Devine Going To See Dr. Andrews
Possibly the five most ominous words a player can have attached to him are the following: "going to see Dr. Andrews." I've been saying for a while that the hype surrounding Joey Devine was far too great, and now we get word that Devine is going to be examined by Dr. James Andrews next week due to persistent pain in his sore elbow.
It appears that Devine will, at the very least, miss all of April, and there is now confirmation that there is major risk with selecting him in drafts. Hopefully for Devine, Dr. Andrews won't discover any structural damage and Devine will still contribute this season. However, there is a very real possibility that it won't turn out well for him. The biggest, most obvious beneficiary from a fantasy perspective here is Brad Ziegler. He will get the early-season save chances, and as long as he's effective, he should keep the job for as long as Devine remains sidelined.
But in very deep mixed leagues or deep AL-only leagues, this Devine injury opens the door for Santiago Casilla to warrant draft consideration. Casilla has Closer-type stuff, with a good fastball and hard slider. The San Francisco Chronicle reported today that Casilla could get some save chances if Ziegler needs a day off, a clear indication that he would be next in line for saves, as opposed to veteran Russ Springer. Casilla has tossed 101 innings over the last two seasons, with a 4.19 ERA and 95 K's. Those numbers don't seem too impressive, but the ability is there. Because I don't see Ziegler as being a Closer all season, and because I think there's a real chance Devine will not be right all season, I recommend Casilla as a late pick in a deep league if you're in a position where you can afford to spend a bench pick on gambling for save chances. And in most leagues, he certainly should be available on the waiver wire.
It appears that Devine will, at the very least, miss all of April, and there is now confirmation that there is major risk with selecting him in drafts. Hopefully for Devine, Dr. Andrews won't discover any structural damage and Devine will still contribute this season. However, there is a very real possibility that it won't turn out well for him. The biggest, most obvious beneficiary from a fantasy perspective here is Brad Ziegler. He will get the early-season save chances, and as long as he's effective, he should keep the job for as long as Devine remains sidelined.
But in very deep mixed leagues or deep AL-only leagues, this Devine injury opens the door for Santiago Casilla to warrant draft consideration. Casilla has Closer-type stuff, with a good fastball and hard slider. The San Francisco Chronicle reported today that Casilla could get some save chances if Ziegler needs a day off, a clear indication that he would be next in line for saves, as opposed to veteran Russ Springer. Casilla has tossed 101 innings over the last two seasons, with a 4.19 ERA and 95 K's. Those numbers don't seem too impressive, but the ability is there. Because I don't see Ziegler as being a Closer all season, and because I think there's a real chance Devine will not be right all season, I recommend Casilla as a late pick in a deep league if you're in a position where you can afford to spend a bench pick on gambling for save chances. And in most leagues, he certainly should be available on the waiver wire.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Musings For Monday
Here are some random fantasy-relevant thoughts I have for today, as we begin the final week of Spring Training...
- Brandon Morrow is back to being a reliever. The starting experiment is over, and much like with Jonathan Papelbon, Morrow wants to close and prefers to close. The team is on board with it, and with the inept Closer options for the Mariners, expect Morrow to be closing by mid-April. He still needs to build up his arm strength and may not be the immediate Closer, but it won't take long. His fantasy value isn't as high because he is now likely to pitch 80 innings (at best) instead of maybe 180, but at least we know who Seattle's closer is, long-term and short-term. Feel free to drop Batista, Lowe, Corcoran, Aardsma, and Cordero from your lists. They shouldn't have been there anyway.
- James McDonald appears to have taken the lead in the race for the fifth starter's job for the Dodgers, and L.A. papers are speculating that unless he has a terrible outing tomorrow, he will be named as the man for the job. Joe Torre even hinted at that today. Score this one as a victory for the Fantasy Leprechaun, since I had him as my Dodger sleeper for this season more than a couple of weeks ago--at a time when McDonald's name wasn't even being mentioned in the fifth starter's race. McDonald is worth a flier in mixed leagues and deserves a spot in NL-only leagues because he has the stuff and poise to succeed.
- There's still no word as to whether Huston Street or Manny Corpas will be named as the Colorado Closer, and it appears that it's truly too-close-to-call. If you're about to have a draft or auction, the way to play this is to consider Corpas as having slightly more value than Street. I say this because if you buy into the fact that it's a 50/50 race, Corpas has to have more value because there's a definite chance that Street will get traded in mid-season, meaning that Corpas for sure would have the job from that point on barring injury. And he may have it before that.
- Trade interest is apparently picking up a little bit on Jeff Niemann and Jason Hammel, the two out-of-options Tampa Bay pitchers. David Price owners have to be hoping that the Rays can find a taker for one of them, because if that happened, perhaps the team would call up Price quickly and put whichever of Niemann/Hammel doesn't get traded into the bullpen as the long reliever. As a David Price owner myself, I can only hope.
- I wouldn't be too alarmed about the news that Giants Manager Bruce Bochy plans to begin the season with Fred Lewis as his #3 hitter and Pablo Sandoval as his #5 hitter (behind the slow-footed Bengie Molina). If you're a Sandoval owner, that is. He may drive in less runs than expected, but the guy can flat-out rake and ultimately, when Lewis is showing that he's the average player he is, eventually Bochy will do the right thing and put Sandoval where he belongs, and that's batting third. Or perhaps Sandoval would ascend to the cleanup spot with Molina dropping to fifth. In any case, don't go crazy and drop Sandoval down your cheat sheets because of this news. Likewise, don't give Lewis this giant bump up your sheets. Lewis is an average player that will help a bit in steals, and he should be treated accordingly.
- Jason Motte took another step towards being named the St. Louis Closer, even though it's not official yet. Chris Perez, his main competition, was optioned to AAA today, clearing the way for Motte to get most of the save chances. Manager Tony LaRussa stopped short of officially anointing Motte today, but he did say that "...I would believe that Motte is going to get a chance to close games." Feel free to consider Motte a solid #2 reliever due to his vast strikeout potential and the possibility that he could hold the Closer role all season for the Cardinals. As for Perez, he is droppable in mixed leagues (unless it's a ridiculously deep mixed league), but could still warrant a roster spot in NL-only leagues. LaRussa wouldn't hesitate to make a quick change if Motte was struggling. Oh, and score another one for yours truly--Motte was my sleeper choice for the Cardinals.
- After the MRI results on Angels ace John Lackey, the team expects him to be out until about May 1. The team says this elbow injury is not as serious as the shoulder injury that caused Lackey to debut on May 14 last year, but I would advise fantasy owners to steer clear of Lackey this season unless you can get him for a super-discounted price. There are too many red flags for me. Lackey averaged 211 innings pitched from 2003-2007, and last year had the shoulder problem that dropped him to 163 innings. This year he almost certainly won't reach 200 innings, either. That's two arm/shoulder injuries in as many seasons. Lackey's fastball was barely reaching 90 MPH at the end of last season. There's just too much here for me to feel confident trusting that he will be 100% for this season once he comes back. Who would've thought a month ago that it was distinctly possible that Kelvim Escobar could come back before Lackey and Ervin Santana? Wow.
- Speaking of Escobar, he needs to be owned in all AL-only leagues right now, since he is so far ahead of schedule in his rehab. Escobar's fastball was at 94 MPH in a minor league game a couple of days ago, and his stuff has been described as "electric" already by Angels officials. Assuming he has no setbacks, the only issue appears to be building his arm strength so that he can take a turn regularly in the rotation. If his health holds up, a mid-May return is quite possible. Kudos to those that took a flier on Escobar in early drafts. If you're still about to draft, consider Escobar as a late-round pick in mixed leagues with bench/DL spots, as he would be a viable #3 starter when healthy (maybe even a #2 starter).
- The Mets came out and announced today that David Murphy will be the primary #2 hitter, with a 3-4-5 of David Wright, Carlos Delgado, and Carlos Beltran. Ryan Church will hit sixth, with Brian Schneider seventh and Luis Castillo eighth. Castillo shouldn't have been viewed as much of a help for fantasy owners anyway, but confirmation that he won't be hitting second saps much of the little fantasy value he could've had. He's a stopgap option at best in NL-only leagues. Murphy is in a nice spot and could be a real asset in NL-only leagues, but still shouldn't be starting on mixed league rosters. As for Wright and Beltran, Wright gets a very slight bump up for hitting third and Beltran a very slight bump down for hitting fifth, but don't overreact either way to this. These are both great players, and will put up their numbers when it's all said and done.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Piniella Chooses Gregg As Closer
In a move that certainly surprises many, Cubs Manager Lou Piniella named Kevin Gregg as his Closer to open the season, ahead of Carlos Marmol. The Fantasy Leprechaun is not surprised, however! As far back as March 13, I wrote in my post about NL Central sleeper picks that Gregg was the best sleeper pick of any Cub, and noted that there was a legitimate chance that Piniella would go this route.
With this development, if you have a draft upcoming, you need to move Gregg way up on your cheat sheets. I think it's likely Gregg will end up with 15-20 saves (with upside for more) because he's certainly not a bad pitcher, and I think that as long as he is successful, Piniella won't make a switch. There's this perception that Gregg isn't any good and that's simply not true. I really feel like Piniella loves the idea of using Marmol in the 7th and 8th innings at times to get more than three outs in a game, and Marmol has shown that he can do that in back-to-back games. For Piniella, I don't think this is a question of who the better pitcher is. I think he feels that the team is better with Marmol in the same role as last year, as long as Gregg isn't much worse than Kerry Wood. We'll just have to see on that one.
You'd be wise to not over-value Gregg, as it's not likely that he'll be the Closer all season (even though it's certainly possible), but he should have the value of a #2 reliever in NL-only leagues. I have Gregg ranked 16th among NL relievers, which is certainly a lot better than if he had been purely a setup man. I'd be more comfortable with Gregg than Manny Corpas or Huston Street right now. And as mentioned, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Gregg could be the Closer for much, if not all, of the season. If so, Gregg would a top second-tier closer, with more value than guys like Heath Bell, Joel Hanrahan, Chad Qualls, and Matt Lindstrom. Kudos to the owner in my NL-only auction yesterday that nabbed Gregg for a dollar!
My best estimation is that Gregg and Marmol both finish with about 20 saves this season. So how far does Marmol fall in value? Certainly, this is a hit for him, but not all is lost. If you're in a draft and other owners let him fall too far, you should grab him. At the absolute worst, he will be a beast for your staff's ERA and strikeouts, and he still could end up as the Closer for a decent portion of the season. I still have Marmol as the fifth-best NL reliever to own, with only Francisco Rodriguez, Brad Lidge, Jose Valverde, and Jonathan Broxton ahead of him. I'd rather have Marmol's 20 saves and super ERA and 100 K's over Brian Wilson's 35-plus saves, for example. I'd still rather have Marmol over Francisco Cordero or Matt Capps. And I'd certainly still want Marmol over Gregg.
With this development, if you have a draft upcoming, you need to move Gregg way up on your cheat sheets. I think it's likely Gregg will end up with 15-20 saves (with upside for more) because he's certainly not a bad pitcher, and I think that as long as he is successful, Piniella won't make a switch. There's this perception that Gregg isn't any good and that's simply not true. I really feel like Piniella loves the idea of using Marmol in the 7th and 8th innings at times to get more than three outs in a game, and Marmol has shown that he can do that in back-to-back games. For Piniella, I don't think this is a question of who the better pitcher is. I think he feels that the team is better with Marmol in the same role as last year, as long as Gregg isn't much worse than Kerry Wood. We'll just have to see on that one.
You'd be wise to not over-value Gregg, as it's not likely that he'll be the Closer all season (even though it's certainly possible), but he should have the value of a #2 reliever in NL-only leagues. I have Gregg ranked 16th among NL relievers, which is certainly a lot better than if he had been purely a setup man. I'd be more comfortable with Gregg than Manny Corpas or Huston Street right now. And as mentioned, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Gregg could be the Closer for much, if not all, of the season. If so, Gregg would a top second-tier closer, with more value than guys like Heath Bell, Joel Hanrahan, Chad Qualls, and Matt Lindstrom. Kudos to the owner in my NL-only auction yesterday that nabbed Gregg for a dollar!
My best estimation is that Gregg and Marmol both finish with about 20 saves this season. So how far does Marmol fall in value? Certainly, this is a hit for him, but not all is lost. If you're in a draft and other owners let him fall too far, you should grab him. At the absolute worst, he will be a beast for your staff's ERA and strikeouts, and he still could end up as the Closer for a decent portion of the season. I still have Marmol as the fifth-best NL reliever to own, with only Francisco Rodriguez, Brad Lidge, Jose Valverde, and Jonathan Broxton ahead of him. I'd rather have Marmol's 20 saves and super ERA and 100 K's over Brian Wilson's 35-plus saves, for example. I'd still rather have Marmol over Francisco Cordero or Matt Capps. And I'd certainly still want Marmol over Gregg.
Saturday, March 28, 2009
NL-Only League Auction Draft Results
My NL team, the Lyrics, went into the 2008 season having won back-to-back championships, and my hopes were high for a three-peat. It didn't happen, as a couple of picks that backfired (coupled with some bad luck) dropped me to finishing fourth. Even though I had 6 really solid hitters, including great selections in Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, I got virtually nothing from 4 of my 10 hitters, and you simply can't have that happen if you are going to win. I got great pitching, but didn't accumulate enough stats from my hitters because I had Josh Bard and Bill Hall and Moises Alou and Jayson Nix on my squad. Ouch.
Going into this year, I thought I was in a good spot to get back into the winner's circle. I kept 8 players, so I went into the auction knowing I only needed to draft 10 players. I retained my 8 players for only $36.75, less than 44% of my cap space (8 players out of 18 is 44% of your cap space). So I still had $63.25 to spend on just 10 players. The players I kept were Freddy Sanchez ($3.25), Troy Tulowitzki ($5), Matt Kemp ($10.50), Andre Ethier ($3), Nate McLouth ($3), Kyle Lohse ($3), Clayton Kershaw ($3), and Matt Capps ($6). (I drafted Kemp, Ethier, and Kershaw last year; I drafted Capps for $2 two years ago; and I traded for Sanchez, Tulowitzki, McLouth, and Lohse in the off-season.) With my usual desire to spend $1 on a catcher, and knowing I was only going to spend $1 on a second reliever (since I already had Capps), really that meant I had $61.25 to spend on 8 players. Quite a nice position to be in.
Like I mentioned in the post about my AL-only league, my general rule is to spend 60% of my cap space on hitting and 40% on pitching. With the retention of 5 hitters at a really solid cost, though, I thought I would be OK if I went a little over 40% on my pitchers, and I felt like I could still do that even if I added two high-priced hitters to my squad. I also figured that I had about 60 steals from my 5 retained players, and I like to get to about 100 steals, so I knew I wanted about 40 more from my remaining 5 hitters I was to draft. I felt like I had about 100 homers from my 5 retained hitters, so I felt like adding two big boppers to my lineup would get me to a solid HR total for sure. I'm always thinking of something like a 200/100 balance when it comes to HR/SB for my team. I also was determined to not have too many risky players among my hitters this year. In terms of pitching, I was aware of the depth at the position and I didn't want to overpay for Johan Santana or Brandon Webb or Dan Haren (Tim Lincecum was a keeper player of another owner and not available), so I figured I could get at least two #1 starter types if I was patient enough, and maybe three.
To be honest, I'm downright giddy over how things played out. My two big hitting additions were David Wright for $16 and Prince Fielder for $12.50. I had Wright as the second-best hitter available, after Albert Pujols, and I just love the fact that he is great in every possible category. As for Fielder, he infuses my team with big-time power, and it's not like he will hurt your team's batting average. The right side of my infield balances out nicely, with Fielder's immense power and OK batting average mixing with Freddy Sanchez's solid batting average and little power. The left side of my infield is golden, with Wright and Tulowitzki.
Eligible in LF in my league, I took Ian Stewart for $2.25. I'm high on him, and even if he only gets 300 AB's, I think he'll produce decent numbers. And since I already had Kemp-McLouth-Ethier in my OF, I was OK with getting a player that probably won't accumulate 550 AB's in my LF spot. And the good thing is, I have a possible keeper for next year and he has the potential to break out this season, considering all of the possible scenarios. For one, you know he will be helped by Coors Field. Second, if Todd Helton goes down at any time, you know Stewart will be playing every day at third base, with Atkins shifting over to first base (like when Helton went down last season). Third, Atkins is a possible trade candidate in July, and if he's moved, Stewart would be the everyday third baseman. And fourth, Stewart is a guy that could get AB's at third base, first base, and LF when guys need days off (maybe even second base). The Rockies will work his bat into the lineup more than once in a blue moon.
I ended up with Chris Synder as my $1 catcher and Cristian Guzman as my $1 Reserve infielder. It's not like those are sexy picks, but Synder does have legitimate pop, and 15-20 homers are quite possible for him. As for Guzman, that was a bit of a tough decision for me. It was down to a straight draft at that point, as I did not have the ability to bid even $1.25 on anybody, and it was right near the end of the draft, and nobody else could block me on my choice of whatever player I wanted. I had Guzman as the only remaining everyday player left available. I could have went for a guy like Troy Glaus (out until at least late-May and likely even longer than that, since he had a setback in his rehab) or a guy like Dallas McPherson, somebody with upside, but after what happened to me last year I opted for the everyday player that will at least pile up some hits and runs scored for me. In this format, I thought that was the smart choice.
I accomplished my goal of what I wanted to do with my pitching staff, I think. Johan Santana went for $16, Webb for $15.25, Hamels for $13.75, and Haren for $13.25, so I waited it out and selected two #1 starters in Adam Wainwright ($10.50) and Ricky Nolasco ($9.50). I also got Derek Lowe for $8.50, which was a little more than I figured I'd spend for him but he was the best available starter at the time and I had money to spend. Lowe doesn't strike out as many guys as I'd like for that kind of value, but he is reliable for a good ERA and is one of the most durable pitchers you can find. He's also likely to win 13-16 games for the Braves. As for my second lefty starter, I ended up with Scott Olsen for $1, and I felt like I could have done a lot worse. Olsen had a god-awful 2007 season, but last year was respectable with a 4.20 ERA in 201 innings. If he can get his strikeout rate back to being solid (it's declined for three straight seasons), he could really have good value. As long as he doesn't blow up on me like he did for fantasy owners in 2007, I'll be able to live with him. At just 25, I think he still has upside. I almost selected Jon Niese (he went undrafted), thinking that he could very well get the call from the Mets once they realize that Livan Hernandez is terrible, but I decided on Olsen since I still think he can improve.
My staff has six legitimate starters out of the 6 possible starting pitcher slots, and all of them should throw at least 180 innings barring injury. Nolasco and Wainwright are #1 starters, and Kershaw and Lowe should be #2 types (all Kershaw needs are the innings to be an elite strikeout pitcher). Lohse and Olsen are likely to give my team 400 innings of OK, low-4's ERA ball, but also 20-25 wins and 250 or so strikeouts. Not bad for $4.
I got lucky with my second reliever, and sometimes in auctions that will happen to you. Nobody had selected Matt Lindstrom yet, and it was near the end of the draft, and everybody that was left that had players to pick couldn't bid on anybody--it was $1 for every slot available. So, whichever owner was up to throw out a player was going to get that player. I needed a reliever, and I noticed that until my spot came up to throw out a player's name, each owner that still needed players had their relief spots and Any Pitcher slots already taken up. So I took Lindstrom and I got a potential 30-save closer for a dollar. I was fully expecting to have to take a setup man with potential closing upside for a dollar. With that bit of good fortune, I might actually fare decently in the saves category, and I only had to spend $7 to do it.
So my hitters are Snyder, Fielder, Freddy Sanchez, Tulowitzki, Wright, Ian Stewart, Kemp, Ethier, Cristian Guzman, and McLouth. If 200 HR/100 SB was my goal, well, I project this team to hit 200 homers and steal 100 bases. My pitchers are Lohse, Lowe, Kershaw, Olsen, Wainwright, Nolasco, Capps, and Lindstrom. To me, Olsen is really the only questionable starter I have (even with some regression I think Lohse will be fine), and I lucked into getting Lindstrom to pair with Capps. I spent a little more than 40% on my pitching, but not much more, at $42.50, which was right in line with that I thought I could do given the hitting talent I was keeping at such a good cost. I really think I have a great team here, with 6 good-to-great hitters, 4 very good starting pitchers, and 2 solid closers. If I get a breakout year from Stewart, I could really be sitting pretty. I just need to avoid injuries and have Sanchez and Guzman contribute regularly.
A notable observation from this auction were that the owners waited until late to get many of their relievers, and that coupled with the fact that people didn't have much money left to spend led to some major bargains. One-dollar relievers included Kevin Gregg (who has at least a 50/50 shot to be his team's Closer), Jason Motte (I almost cried when I saw him go for $1 and I couldn't bid), Huston Street (Corpas could win the job but Street is certainly worth this), Chris Perez (though I prefer Motte to him I still like the upside here for a buck), and Lindstrom. The same owner got Chad Qualls and Joel Hanrahan, only spending $6.25 to do it. Even Trevor Hoffman went for only $2, and while I'm not especially high on Hoffman this year, you can't really go wrong with a $2 investment in him, even with the fact that he'll start the season on the DL with his oblique injury.
Ryan Braun went for the most money at $18, followed closely by Pujols at $17.50. Wright and Johan Santana went for $16 each, and Ryan Howard and Webb both went for $15.25. I thought that Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins were both solid values at $13.25 and $12.75, respectively. There was no discount on Chase Utley after his offseason hip surgery, as he commanded a $14.25 price. Surely, the gap between he and the next-best NL option, Brandon Phillips, is pretty big, but not $6.75 big, in my opinion; Phillips was a pretty good value at a $7.50 price. Aramis Ramirez was a very fine value at $10; the guy is one of the safer .290-25-110 bets around, and I've owned him frequently over the years. Had I not ended up with Wright, I am sure I would have landed Ramirez again.
The hype surrounding Pablo Sandoval drove his price up to $7.50; I like him a lot, but he certainly didn't come cheap. Tommy Hanson, whom I absolutely love, was snagged for $1, and I have a feeling that owner will be keeping Hanson through at least the 2012 season. If you want to know what a format that doesn't allow any changes will do a really good per-game player like Milton Bradley, he went for only $3.50. Considering that Chipper Jones is pretty much at the point where he's just about as much of an injury concern as Bradley, and that Chipper went for $10, you'd have to say advantage Bradley here in terms of value. Chipper is better than Milton, but not by a great deal, and not $6.50 better. Ubaldo Jimenez also slipped through the cracks and was snagged for just $1, an amazing value for his strikeout ability. Heath Bell's name was thrown out very early on, and he went for $6. Qualls and Hanrahan, both on a par with Bell in terms of their value, went for a total of $6.25 because they were selected late in the draft when owners didn't have that much money. That's the beauty of an auction format...certain players will go for too much because bidding wars ensue, and certain players will go for way too little because people run out of money!
Going into this year, I thought I was in a good spot to get back into the winner's circle. I kept 8 players, so I went into the auction knowing I only needed to draft 10 players. I retained my 8 players for only $36.75, less than 44% of my cap space (8 players out of 18 is 44% of your cap space). So I still had $63.25 to spend on just 10 players. The players I kept were Freddy Sanchez ($3.25), Troy Tulowitzki ($5), Matt Kemp ($10.50), Andre Ethier ($3), Nate McLouth ($3), Kyle Lohse ($3), Clayton Kershaw ($3), and Matt Capps ($6). (I drafted Kemp, Ethier, and Kershaw last year; I drafted Capps for $2 two years ago; and I traded for Sanchez, Tulowitzki, McLouth, and Lohse in the off-season.) With my usual desire to spend $1 on a catcher, and knowing I was only going to spend $1 on a second reliever (since I already had Capps), really that meant I had $61.25 to spend on 8 players. Quite a nice position to be in.
Like I mentioned in the post about my AL-only league, my general rule is to spend 60% of my cap space on hitting and 40% on pitching. With the retention of 5 hitters at a really solid cost, though, I thought I would be OK if I went a little over 40% on my pitchers, and I felt like I could still do that even if I added two high-priced hitters to my squad. I also figured that I had about 60 steals from my 5 retained players, and I like to get to about 100 steals, so I knew I wanted about 40 more from my remaining 5 hitters I was to draft. I felt like I had about 100 homers from my 5 retained hitters, so I felt like adding two big boppers to my lineup would get me to a solid HR total for sure. I'm always thinking of something like a 200/100 balance when it comes to HR/SB for my team. I also was determined to not have too many risky players among my hitters this year. In terms of pitching, I was aware of the depth at the position and I didn't want to overpay for Johan Santana or Brandon Webb or Dan Haren (Tim Lincecum was a keeper player of another owner and not available), so I figured I could get at least two #1 starter types if I was patient enough, and maybe three.
To be honest, I'm downright giddy over how things played out. My two big hitting additions were David Wright for $16 and Prince Fielder for $12.50. I had Wright as the second-best hitter available, after Albert Pujols, and I just love the fact that he is great in every possible category. As for Fielder, he infuses my team with big-time power, and it's not like he will hurt your team's batting average. The right side of my infield balances out nicely, with Fielder's immense power and OK batting average mixing with Freddy Sanchez's solid batting average and little power. The left side of my infield is golden, with Wright and Tulowitzki.
Eligible in LF in my league, I took Ian Stewart for $2.25. I'm high on him, and even if he only gets 300 AB's, I think he'll produce decent numbers. And since I already had Kemp-McLouth-Ethier in my OF, I was OK with getting a player that probably won't accumulate 550 AB's in my LF spot. And the good thing is, I have a possible keeper for next year and he has the potential to break out this season, considering all of the possible scenarios. For one, you know he will be helped by Coors Field. Second, if Todd Helton goes down at any time, you know Stewart will be playing every day at third base, with Atkins shifting over to first base (like when Helton went down last season). Third, Atkins is a possible trade candidate in July, and if he's moved, Stewart would be the everyday third baseman. And fourth, Stewart is a guy that could get AB's at third base, first base, and LF when guys need days off (maybe even second base). The Rockies will work his bat into the lineup more than once in a blue moon.
I ended up with Chris Synder as my $1 catcher and Cristian Guzman as my $1 Reserve infielder. It's not like those are sexy picks, but Synder does have legitimate pop, and 15-20 homers are quite possible for him. As for Guzman, that was a bit of a tough decision for me. It was down to a straight draft at that point, as I did not have the ability to bid even $1.25 on anybody, and it was right near the end of the draft, and nobody else could block me on my choice of whatever player I wanted. I had Guzman as the only remaining everyday player left available. I could have went for a guy like Troy Glaus (out until at least late-May and likely even longer than that, since he had a setback in his rehab) or a guy like Dallas McPherson, somebody with upside, but after what happened to me last year I opted for the everyday player that will at least pile up some hits and runs scored for me. In this format, I thought that was the smart choice.
I accomplished my goal of what I wanted to do with my pitching staff, I think. Johan Santana went for $16, Webb for $15.25, Hamels for $13.75, and Haren for $13.25, so I waited it out and selected two #1 starters in Adam Wainwright ($10.50) and Ricky Nolasco ($9.50). I also got Derek Lowe for $8.50, which was a little more than I figured I'd spend for him but he was the best available starter at the time and I had money to spend. Lowe doesn't strike out as many guys as I'd like for that kind of value, but he is reliable for a good ERA and is one of the most durable pitchers you can find. He's also likely to win 13-16 games for the Braves. As for my second lefty starter, I ended up with Scott Olsen for $1, and I felt like I could have done a lot worse. Olsen had a god-awful 2007 season, but last year was respectable with a 4.20 ERA in 201 innings. If he can get his strikeout rate back to being solid (it's declined for three straight seasons), he could really have good value. As long as he doesn't blow up on me like he did for fantasy owners in 2007, I'll be able to live with him. At just 25, I think he still has upside. I almost selected Jon Niese (he went undrafted), thinking that he could very well get the call from the Mets once they realize that Livan Hernandez is terrible, but I decided on Olsen since I still think he can improve.
My staff has six legitimate starters out of the 6 possible starting pitcher slots, and all of them should throw at least 180 innings barring injury. Nolasco and Wainwright are #1 starters, and Kershaw and Lowe should be #2 types (all Kershaw needs are the innings to be an elite strikeout pitcher). Lohse and Olsen are likely to give my team 400 innings of OK, low-4's ERA ball, but also 20-25 wins and 250 or so strikeouts. Not bad for $4.
I got lucky with my second reliever, and sometimes in auctions that will happen to you. Nobody had selected Matt Lindstrom yet, and it was near the end of the draft, and everybody that was left that had players to pick couldn't bid on anybody--it was $1 for every slot available. So, whichever owner was up to throw out a player was going to get that player. I needed a reliever, and I noticed that until my spot came up to throw out a player's name, each owner that still needed players had their relief spots and Any Pitcher slots already taken up. So I took Lindstrom and I got a potential 30-save closer for a dollar. I was fully expecting to have to take a setup man with potential closing upside for a dollar. With that bit of good fortune, I might actually fare decently in the saves category, and I only had to spend $7 to do it.
So my hitters are Snyder, Fielder, Freddy Sanchez, Tulowitzki, Wright, Ian Stewart, Kemp, Ethier, Cristian Guzman, and McLouth. If 200 HR/100 SB was my goal, well, I project this team to hit 200 homers and steal 100 bases. My pitchers are Lohse, Lowe, Kershaw, Olsen, Wainwright, Nolasco, Capps, and Lindstrom. To me, Olsen is really the only questionable starter I have (even with some regression I think Lohse will be fine), and I lucked into getting Lindstrom to pair with Capps. I spent a little more than 40% on my pitching, but not much more, at $42.50, which was right in line with that I thought I could do given the hitting talent I was keeping at such a good cost. I really think I have a great team here, with 6 good-to-great hitters, 4 very good starting pitchers, and 2 solid closers. If I get a breakout year from Stewart, I could really be sitting pretty. I just need to avoid injuries and have Sanchez and Guzman contribute regularly.
A notable observation from this auction were that the owners waited until late to get many of their relievers, and that coupled with the fact that people didn't have much money left to spend led to some major bargains. One-dollar relievers included Kevin Gregg (who has at least a 50/50 shot to be his team's Closer), Jason Motte (I almost cried when I saw him go for $1 and I couldn't bid), Huston Street (Corpas could win the job but Street is certainly worth this), Chris Perez (though I prefer Motte to him I still like the upside here for a buck), and Lindstrom. The same owner got Chad Qualls and Joel Hanrahan, only spending $6.25 to do it. Even Trevor Hoffman went for only $2, and while I'm not especially high on Hoffman this year, you can't really go wrong with a $2 investment in him, even with the fact that he'll start the season on the DL with his oblique injury.
Ryan Braun went for the most money at $18, followed closely by Pujols at $17.50. Wright and Johan Santana went for $16 each, and Ryan Howard and Webb both went for $15.25. I thought that Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins were both solid values at $13.25 and $12.75, respectively. There was no discount on Chase Utley after his offseason hip surgery, as he commanded a $14.25 price. Surely, the gap between he and the next-best NL option, Brandon Phillips, is pretty big, but not $6.75 big, in my opinion; Phillips was a pretty good value at a $7.50 price. Aramis Ramirez was a very fine value at $10; the guy is one of the safer .290-25-110 bets around, and I've owned him frequently over the years. Had I not ended up with Wright, I am sure I would have landed Ramirez again.
The hype surrounding Pablo Sandoval drove his price up to $7.50; I like him a lot, but he certainly didn't come cheap. Tommy Hanson, whom I absolutely love, was snagged for $1, and I have a feeling that owner will be keeping Hanson through at least the 2012 season. If you want to know what a format that doesn't allow any changes will do a really good per-game player like Milton Bradley, he went for only $3.50. Considering that Chipper Jones is pretty much at the point where he's just about as much of an injury concern as Bradley, and that Chipper went for $10, you'd have to say advantage Bradley here in terms of value. Chipper is better than Milton, but not by a great deal, and not $6.50 better. Ubaldo Jimenez also slipped through the cracks and was snagged for just $1, an amazing value for his strikeout ability. Heath Bell's name was thrown out very early on, and he went for $6. Qualls and Hanrahan, both on a par with Bell in terms of their value, went for a total of $6.25 because they were selected late in the draft when owners didn't have that much money. That's the beauty of an auction format...certain players will go for too much because bidding wars ensue, and certain players will go for way too little because people run out of money!
AL-Only League Auction Draft Results
My AL team, the Knights, won the championship last season, and I had five players that I was keeping before the draft started. I had traded for Coco Crisp ($3) and Alexi Casilla ($3) in the off-season, and I kept Joba Chamberlain ($9), Jon Lester ($5), and David Price ($3), who were on my team last season. (I had drafted Lester for $1 in 2007.) Luckily for me, I already had my two lefty starters so I didn't need to worry about that. With Crisp and Casilla on board, I could get 50 steals for six bucks, and I generally try to make sure I end up at around 100 SB's for my roster when it's all said and done--so I was already 50% of the way there. With Casilla and Crisp both not being big power guys though, I knew I would need to certainly address that with my remaining 8 hitting spots.
A general rule I have with this format is to spend about 60% of my cap space on hitting and 40% on pitching. But with Chamberlain-Lester-Price kept for only $17, and with my usual practice of not wanting to spend much money on my relief pitching (because I don't overvalue Saves), and noting the increased depth of starting pitching this year (even in the AL, where there are only 14 teams, compared to 16 in the NL), I went into the draft thinking that I could spend a little bit more than 60% on my hitters, thinking maybe 65-35, something like that. As it turned out, I spent only $31.50 on my pitching staff, and I think it worked out well.
In the open format of the auction--meaning, any player can be thrown out at any time regardless of which position they play--I felt that early on, players were going for more than what I thought they were worth. And some really good players were taken early. Often, I'm not afraid to spend money early in the draft on guys if I like them. But this year, I just felt like guys were going for more than their worth, so I waited and stayed patient, trusting that there would be plenty of value later. I had Miguel Cabrera as the best available hitter, and finally I got him at a $16.75 value, after about 25 players had been selected. I also had Cabrera last season on my winning squad.
For much of the auction, I found myself in a position where I either had the most money left or close to it. As such, I think I found really nice values at a number of positions. I was able to get Jorge Posada as my catcher for just $1, and considering that he will hit either 4th or 5th in the Yankee lineup until A-Rod is out (and at worst, 6th, once he comes back), that was quite a steal. Even if his off-season surgery makes him a non-elite catcher, there's no downside at all to getting him for a buck. Especially since I don't like to spend money at the catcher position and usually am fine with getting a much less-talented catcher. I got Mike Aviles as my shortstop for $5, which I was thrilled with. I went in really wanting one of the top four SS options (Ramirez, Peralta, Jeter, Aviles), because I felt there was a big drop-off after that, and I figured I would get the one that was the best value for the cost. I don't think Aviles was a fluke last year, and I had his value essentially equal to Derek Jeter's (who went for $8.25). I had Alexei Ramirez (he went for $9.50) and Jhonny Peralta (he went for $8) as the two best guys at the position, and then a very small gap back to Jeter and Aviles...and after Aviles I had a big gap back to the guy I had ranked fifth, Orlando Cabrera. I got Johnny Damon in LF for $5.75, a nice price since he is solid in three categories and great in a fourth (steals). He'll also chip in nicely in the HR and RBI categories. He might even get an RBI boost this season, since he is now hitting second in the Yankee lineup behind Jeter, now slated to bat leadoff. Damon has also topped 500 AB's in every season since 1998, so he's as durable as anyone (knock on wood).
I had Nick Markakis on my team last year, and I got him again in RF for $11.50, which was actually 50 cents less than I paid for him last year. Markakis isn't likely to have 120-plus RBI or get 200 hits due to the fact that he takes a lot of walks, but I'll take .300-25-100 gladly. He might even steal 10 bases or so. And he certainly has the upside for something like .320-30-120. As a young, durable player with no known injury concerns, I preferred him to Vladimir Guerrero ($10.50) or Magglio Ordonez ($9.50), whose injury risks are increasing due to their ages (though I think that both of them will still be very good this year). Ichiro went for $12.25, which isn't terrible, but I definitely preferred Markakis, especially for slightly less. Better to be on the side of the ascending player (Markakis) rather than a possibly descending one (Ichiro is not a kid anymore, and might be starting his decline phase. Although Ichiro could probably roll out of bed and hit .300 with close to 200 hits). Nelson Cruz went for $8.75, and though he could certainly prove to be worth that, he has never proven he can put up numbers over 162 games in the big leagues. I paid only $2.75 more for a known great player, to put it in perspective. I think Cruz will be fine this year, but there's certainly some risk with him.
I got Gil Meche for $7, and I feel very comfortable with him at that price. Meche is in his prime, and his value isn't perceived to be that high because he pitches for the Royals. But Meche has quietly had solid back-to-back seasons in KC, is in the prime of his career, and is durable. He's also not a bad strikeout pitcher. I'm expecting an ERA of around 4 with about 170 strikeouts in 210 innings. Even if he has a record near .500, I'm not that concerned about that, considering that I already had Chamberlain-Lester-Price, who should have great records pitching for really good teams. To compare, Jered Weaver went for $9 (has never pitched more than 200 innings), Armando Galarraga went for $6.75 (not a strikeout pitcher and has never pitched a full big-league season), and Andy Sonnanstine went for $4.75 (doesn't strike anybody out and might be lucky to keep his ERA under 4.5 this year).
Another player I got that I really liked going into the draft--a player I've talked about on this blog--is Curtis Granderson, for $10.25. Granderson filled my first DH spot, since I already had Crisp. I think Granderson could break out and even though he may not steal 20 bases, due to Jim Leyland more than anything else, he should hit for a solid average and hit 20-25 homers and score a boatload of runs, hopefully for me via Miguel Cabrera home runs!
Of course, I never want to spend too much on relievers, and I only spent $2 to get my two relievers, Jensen Lewis and Manny Delcarmen. It was pretty late in the draft and I had the most money left of anybody, and I still needed my third baseman along with both relief spots. Mark DeRosa--a very useful player--was still left at third base, and there were no other attractive options at all (I had Ty Wigginton as the next-best choice, and he isn't even a starter right now for the Orioles). I didn't want to get stuck with a guy that might only get 200-300 AB's, so I decided to spend $6 on the known quantity, DeRosa. I could have outbid another owner on Chris Ray, who likely will be closing in Baltimore sooner rather than later, but I didn't want to chase saves at the expense of a spot in my lineup. I thought about going with Takashi Saito (who went undrafted) as one of my two relievers, because he would close if something happened to Papelbon, but Saito himself is a major injury risk, pitching with a partially torn elbow ligament, so I opted for the safe choice to rack up K's in Delcarmen. And with Kerry Wood's checkered injury history, there's always the chance Lewis could find himself closing games for the Indians again. He was very capable in that role last year, and at worst will add to my strikeout total.
My team's hitters are Posada, Miguel Cabrera, Casilla, Aviles, DeRosa, Damon, Crisp, Markakis, Granderson, and Adam Lind (my 2nd DH spot). Every one of these guys is a solid everyday player, and all of them except Posada and Lind bat in the top four places in their teams' batting orders. And both of those guys should hit no worse than sixth. Casilla, Aviles, Damon, Crisp, and Granderson will provide most of the SB's for me, and Cabrera and Markakis are my best power guys (with everybody else chipping in except for Casilla, really). I think I achieved the balance I was looking for, as I project my team to hit about 190 homers and to steal about 115 bases. Posada is really the only old player I have, and as I said, for one dollar I can't go wrong with him.
My team's pitchers are Chamberlain, Meche, Lester, Price, Kelvim Escobar, Nick Blackburn, Jensen Lewis, and Delcarmen. I have four certain starters of my 6 possible slots for starting pitchers, and I figure to get about 2/3 of a season from Price. As for Escobar, I only spent $2.75 on him, and reports on him are excellent as he makes his way back from shoulder surgery. He is throwing 94 MPH and looked great in a Double-A game today, retiring 10 of 11 hitters he faced without giving up a hit. The big thing is the velocity--if he avoids setbacks, it seems that the velocity and stuff will be there. Assuming no setbacks, he should be back in the rotation by late May. Escobar has the skill set to be a #2 starter when healthy, so it was a worthwhile gamble for me to get him instead of a guy like Vicente Padilla, who could wreck your team ERA. If Escobar gives me 100 innings, I'll be happy. That would give me about 5.2 starters out of 6 possible, and all of them are pretty effective. Blackburn is probably my worst pitcher when they are all healthy, and won't provide a lot of K's, but will provide innings and a decent ERA, which is a balance from the risk associated with Escobar. Blackburn went for $2.75, like Escobar.
Looking to 2010, since this is a keeper league, I know I will have Lester ($7.50) and Price ($5) back without question, barring injury. Escobar at $4.75 would be really nice too, if he finishes this year healthy. Posada at $3, Aviles at $7.50, Crisp at $5, and Lind at $5.75 are all possibilities, too. And if there were an injury to Kerry Wood or Papelbon that would cause them to miss time next year, I could consider Lewis or Delcarmen at $3.
Not as much money was spent on the two relief spots by most owners as compared to previous years, so perhaps my competitors are reading the writings of yours truly, the Fantasy Leprechaun, in this blog. Saves count for only one category out of 11 possible, or 9% of the categories, and nobody spent more than $12.25 on their relievers, except for one owner. This guy really splurged by getting the top two closers, Papelbon and Nathan, for a total of $21.75, meaning he spent almost 22% of his salary cap on two relief pitchers. Needless to say, that's not something I would advise.
Other notable developments in the auction? Alex Rodriguez went for $11.25, and he would go for around $18-20 in a typical year, so clearly my league was hesitant to take him. He'll be a steal if he is an everyday player from May 15 on, but if he misses most of the season that will be a big hit for the owner that got him. Overall, not a terrible risk, though I personally didn't want to go anywhere near A-Rod this year. There was no bargain on Matt Wieters; he went for $6, even though he won't be in the majors until late May at the earliest. I felt like that was quite a price to pay, considering that as good as he is, he's only going to play 2/3 of a season. And a catcher doesn't start every day, as it is. And at $9 for next year, he's not a keeper for 2010 in my opinion (unless he's Piazza-like). Mark Teixeira went for $17, the highest of any player, a little bit of a surprise; I got Cabrera for $16.75 and I think he's a bit better, and Grady Sizemore went for $15, which was a good value. CC Sabathia was the highest pitcher at $14.50, with Felix Hernandez next at $14.25. Hernandez went towards the middle of the auction and two owners got into a bidding war for him, so that made Roy Halladay look like a steal at $13.25 (Halladay was off the board fairly early on), and the same for Josh Beckett at $9.75 (great value there, even with his propensity for occasional DL stints). I thought Alexei Ramirez at $9.50 (he has Alfonso Soriano-like possibilities) was solid.
So how do you all think the Knights will do this season? Barring injury, I like this team a lot, and I think I gave myself a chance at a repeat title. I am very comfortable with my hitters and really like my top 4 starters (yes, I consider Price a top starter, even if for 2/3 of a season). I pretty much guaranteed myself a low point total--perhaps even no points--in the save category, but I think I can overcome that. I have before.
A general rule I have with this format is to spend about 60% of my cap space on hitting and 40% on pitching. But with Chamberlain-Lester-Price kept for only $17, and with my usual practice of not wanting to spend much money on my relief pitching (because I don't overvalue Saves), and noting the increased depth of starting pitching this year (even in the AL, where there are only 14 teams, compared to 16 in the NL), I went into the draft thinking that I could spend a little bit more than 60% on my hitters, thinking maybe 65-35, something like that. As it turned out, I spent only $31.50 on my pitching staff, and I think it worked out well.
In the open format of the auction--meaning, any player can be thrown out at any time regardless of which position they play--I felt that early on, players were going for more than what I thought they were worth. And some really good players were taken early. Often, I'm not afraid to spend money early in the draft on guys if I like them. But this year, I just felt like guys were going for more than their worth, so I waited and stayed patient, trusting that there would be plenty of value later. I had Miguel Cabrera as the best available hitter, and finally I got him at a $16.75 value, after about 25 players had been selected. I also had Cabrera last season on my winning squad.
For much of the auction, I found myself in a position where I either had the most money left or close to it. As such, I think I found really nice values at a number of positions. I was able to get Jorge Posada as my catcher for just $1, and considering that he will hit either 4th or 5th in the Yankee lineup until A-Rod is out (and at worst, 6th, once he comes back), that was quite a steal. Even if his off-season surgery makes him a non-elite catcher, there's no downside at all to getting him for a buck. Especially since I don't like to spend money at the catcher position and usually am fine with getting a much less-talented catcher. I got Mike Aviles as my shortstop for $5, which I was thrilled with. I went in really wanting one of the top four SS options (Ramirez, Peralta, Jeter, Aviles), because I felt there was a big drop-off after that, and I figured I would get the one that was the best value for the cost. I don't think Aviles was a fluke last year, and I had his value essentially equal to Derek Jeter's (who went for $8.25). I had Alexei Ramirez (he went for $9.50) and Jhonny Peralta (he went for $8) as the two best guys at the position, and then a very small gap back to Jeter and Aviles...and after Aviles I had a big gap back to the guy I had ranked fifth, Orlando Cabrera. I got Johnny Damon in LF for $5.75, a nice price since he is solid in three categories and great in a fourth (steals). He'll also chip in nicely in the HR and RBI categories. He might even get an RBI boost this season, since he is now hitting second in the Yankee lineup behind Jeter, now slated to bat leadoff. Damon has also topped 500 AB's in every season since 1998, so he's as durable as anyone (knock on wood).
I had Nick Markakis on my team last year, and I got him again in RF for $11.50, which was actually 50 cents less than I paid for him last year. Markakis isn't likely to have 120-plus RBI or get 200 hits due to the fact that he takes a lot of walks, but I'll take .300-25-100 gladly. He might even steal 10 bases or so. And he certainly has the upside for something like .320-30-120. As a young, durable player with no known injury concerns, I preferred him to Vladimir Guerrero ($10.50) or Magglio Ordonez ($9.50), whose injury risks are increasing due to their ages (though I think that both of them will still be very good this year). Ichiro went for $12.25, which isn't terrible, but I definitely preferred Markakis, especially for slightly less. Better to be on the side of the ascending player (Markakis) rather than a possibly descending one (Ichiro is not a kid anymore, and might be starting his decline phase. Although Ichiro could probably roll out of bed and hit .300 with close to 200 hits). Nelson Cruz went for $8.75, and though he could certainly prove to be worth that, he has never proven he can put up numbers over 162 games in the big leagues. I paid only $2.75 more for a known great player, to put it in perspective. I think Cruz will be fine this year, but there's certainly some risk with him.
I got Gil Meche for $7, and I feel very comfortable with him at that price. Meche is in his prime, and his value isn't perceived to be that high because he pitches for the Royals. But Meche has quietly had solid back-to-back seasons in KC, is in the prime of his career, and is durable. He's also not a bad strikeout pitcher. I'm expecting an ERA of around 4 with about 170 strikeouts in 210 innings. Even if he has a record near .500, I'm not that concerned about that, considering that I already had Chamberlain-Lester-Price, who should have great records pitching for really good teams. To compare, Jered Weaver went for $9 (has never pitched more than 200 innings), Armando Galarraga went for $6.75 (not a strikeout pitcher and has never pitched a full big-league season), and Andy Sonnanstine went for $4.75 (doesn't strike anybody out and might be lucky to keep his ERA under 4.5 this year).
Another player I got that I really liked going into the draft--a player I've talked about on this blog--is Curtis Granderson, for $10.25. Granderson filled my first DH spot, since I already had Crisp. I think Granderson could break out and even though he may not steal 20 bases, due to Jim Leyland more than anything else, he should hit for a solid average and hit 20-25 homers and score a boatload of runs, hopefully for me via Miguel Cabrera home runs!
Of course, I never want to spend too much on relievers, and I only spent $2 to get my two relievers, Jensen Lewis and Manny Delcarmen. It was pretty late in the draft and I had the most money left of anybody, and I still needed my third baseman along with both relief spots. Mark DeRosa--a very useful player--was still left at third base, and there were no other attractive options at all (I had Ty Wigginton as the next-best choice, and he isn't even a starter right now for the Orioles). I didn't want to get stuck with a guy that might only get 200-300 AB's, so I decided to spend $6 on the known quantity, DeRosa. I could have outbid another owner on Chris Ray, who likely will be closing in Baltimore sooner rather than later, but I didn't want to chase saves at the expense of a spot in my lineup. I thought about going with Takashi Saito (who went undrafted) as one of my two relievers, because he would close if something happened to Papelbon, but Saito himself is a major injury risk, pitching with a partially torn elbow ligament, so I opted for the safe choice to rack up K's in Delcarmen. And with Kerry Wood's checkered injury history, there's always the chance Lewis could find himself closing games for the Indians again. He was very capable in that role last year, and at worst will add to my strikeout total.
My team's hitters are Posada, Miguel Cabrera, Casilla, Aviles, DeRosa, Damon, Crisp, Markakis, Granderson, and Adam Lind (my 2nd DH spot). Every one of these guys is a solid everyday player, and all of them except Posada and Lind bat in the top four places in their teams' batting orders. And both of those guys should hit no worse than sixth. Casilla, Aviles, Damon, Crisp, and Granderson will provide most of the SB's for me, and Cabrera and Markakis are my best power guys (with everybody else chipping in except for Casilla, really). I think I achieved the balance I was looking for, as I project my team to hit about 190 homers and to steal about 115 bases. Posada is really the only old player I have, and as I said, for one dollar I can't go wrong with him.
My team's pitchers are Chamberlain, Meche, Lester, Price, Kelvim Escobar, Nick Blackburn, Jensen Lewis, and Delcarmen. I have four certain starters of my 6 possible slots for starting pitchers, and I figure to get about 2/3 of a season from Price. As for Escobar, I only spent $2.75 on him, and reports on him are excellent as he makes his way back from shoulder surgery. He is throwing 94 MPH and looked great in a Double-A game today, retiring 10 of 11 hitters he faced without giving up a hit. The big thing is the velocity--if he avoids setbacks, it seems that the velocity and stuff will be there. Assuming no setbacks, he should be back in the rotation by late May. Escobar has the skill set to be a #2 starter when healthy, so it was a worthwhile gamble for me to get him instead of a guy like Vicente Padilla, who could wreck your team ERA. If Escobar gives me 100 innings, I'll be happy. That would give me about 5.2 starters out of 6 possible, and all of them are pretty effective. Blackburn is probably my worst pitcher when they are all healthy, and won't provide a lot of K's, but will provide innings and a decent ERA, which is a balance from the risk associated with Escobar. Blackburn went for $2.75, like Escobar.
Looking to 2010, since this is a keeper league, I know I will have Lester ($7.50) and Price ($5) back without question, barring injury. Escobar at $4.75 would be really nice too, if he finishes this year healthy. Posada at $3, Aviles at $7.50, Crisp at $5, and Lind at $5.75 are all possibilities, too. And if there were an injury to Kerry Wood or Papelbon that would cause them to miss time next year, I could consider Lewis or Delcarmen at $3.
Not as much money was spent on the two relief spots by most owners as compared to previous years, so perhaps my competitors are reading the writings of yours truly, the Fantasy Leprechaun, in this blog. Saves count for only one category out of 11 possible, or 9% of the categories, and nobody spent more than $12.25 on their relievers, except for one owner. This guy really splurged by getting the top two closers, Papelbon and Nathan, for a total of $21.75, meaning he spent almost 22% of his salary cap on two relief pitchers. Needless to say, that's not something I would advise.
Other notable developments in the auction? Alex Rodriguez went for $11.25, and he would go for around $18-20 in a typical year, so clearly my league was hesitant to take him. He'll be a steal if he is an everyday player from May 15 on, but if he misses most of the season that will be a big hit for the owner that got him. Overall, not a terrible risk, though I personally didn't want to go anywhere near A-Rod this year. There was no bargain on Matt Wieters; he went for $6, even though he won't be in the majors until late May at the earliest. I felt like that was quite a price to pay, considering that as good as he is, he's only going to play 2/3 of a season. And a catcher doesn't start every day, as it is. And at $9 for next year, he's not a keeper for 2010 in my opinion (unless he's Piazza-like). Mark Teixeira went for $17, the highest of any player, a little bit of a surprise; I got Cabrera for $16.75 and I think he's a bit better, and Grady Sizemore went for $15, which was a good value. CC Sabathia was the highest pitcher at $14.50, with Felix Hernandez next at $14.25. Hernandez went towards the middle of the auction and two owners got into a bidding war for him, so that made Roy Halladay look like a steal at $13.25 (Halladay was off the board fairly early on), and the same for Josh Beckett at $9.75 (great value there, even with his propensity for occasional DL stints). I thought Alexei Ramirez at $9.50 (he has Alfonso Soriano-like possibilities) was solid.
So how do you all think the Knights will do this season? Barring injury, I like this team a lot, and I think I gave myself a chance at a repeat title. I am very comfortable with my hitters and really like my top 4 starters (yes, I consider Price a top starter, even if for 2/3 of a season). I pretty much guaranteed myself a low point total--perhaps even no points--in the save category, but I think I can overcome that. I have before.
Overview of My NL and AL League Auction Drafts
Today was a big day for me, as I had my AL-only and NL-only league auction drafts. I say it was a big day because I've been in these two leagues for about 10 years, and these leagues were my first taste of participating in fantasy baseball, so these leagues hold a special place in my heart.
They are both very traditional leagues, with striking differences between most leagues I've seen. There are NO changes allowed whatsoever during the entire season, and no bench spots. (That's right, if you have a guy that gets injured on April 8 and is lost for the year, you're screwed!) Clearly, this makes you think twice about bidding for oft-injured players like Milton Bradley, and accumulation of stats and reliance on as many everyday players as possible is important. We draft each individual outfield position (LF-CF-RF), as opposed to just having three outfielders regardless of position.
Also, when it comes to starting pitchers, each league requires you to select two left-handed starters (and it's always fun to see how owners play it when the top lefty options are off the board). It's a keeper league, and players may be kept at 150% of their cost for the following season (unless their cost is less than $4, in which case they can be kept for an additional $2). The keeper league aspect adds a great dynamic to everything, because you might be able to get a young talent for cheap with an eye towards next season--but it might hurt you this season, because the stats from each roster spot count. The roster configurations in each league are: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, two right-handed starters, two left-handed starters, two Relief Pitcher slots, and two Any Pitcher slots. The AL league also has two DH spots, but the two hitters can be from any position, so they are essentially two Any Hitter spots, and the NL league has one Reserve infielder and one Reserve outfielder spot (though the term "reserve" is misleading, since they are starters on your team and not bench spots).
Bidding of players must start at a minimum of $1, and bidding can be done in .25 cent increments. The drafts would probably move at a faster pace if the bidding were done in dollar increments, but again, this is a very traditional league. Of course, anybody can bid whatever they want at any given time, provided that they have enough money left to do so. The salary cap for each owner is $100. There are 10 owners in each league, so that means 180 players from each league are drafted (100 hitters and 80 pitchers). We do the drafts every year in a recreation/conference room and each draft is live and in-person, not online.
OK, now that you all know how both of these leagues work, I'll go over how my drafts went in both leagues in the next two posts, as well as trying to explain what I was trying to accomplish.
They are both very traditional leagues, with striking differences between most leagues I've seen. There are NO changes allowed whatsoever during the entire season, and no bench spots. (That's right, if you have a guy that gets injured on April 8 and is lost for the year, you're screwed!) Clearly, this makes you think twice about bidding for oft-injured players like Milton Bradley, and accumulation of stats and reliance on as many everyday players as possible is important. We draft each individual outfield position (LF-CF-RF), as opposed to just having three outfielders regardless of position.
Also, when it comes to starting pitchers, each league requires you to select two left-handed starters (and it's always fun to see how owners play it when the top lefty options are off the board). It's a keeper league, and players may be kept at 150% of their cost for the following season (unless their cost is less than $4, in which case they can be kept for an additional $2). The keeper league aspect adds a great dynamic to everything, because you might be able to get a young talent for cheap with an eye towards next season--but it might hurt you this season, because the stats from each roster spot count. The roster configurations in each league are: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, two right-handed starters, two left-handed starters, two Relief Pitcher slots, and two Any Pitcher slots. The AL league also has two DH spots, but the two hitters can be from any position, so they are essentially two Any Hitter spots, and the NL league has one Reserve infielder and one Reserve outfielder spot (though the term "reserve" is misleading, since they are starters on your team and not bench spots).
Bidding of players must start at a minimum of $1, and bidding can be done in .25 cent increments. The drafts would probably move at a faster pace if the bidding were done in dollar increments, but again, this is a very traditional league. Of course, anybody can bid whatever they want at any given time, provided that they have enough money left to do so. The salary cap for each owner is $100. There are 10 owners in each league, so that means 180 players from each league are drafted (100 hitters and 80 pitchers). We do the drafts every year in a recreation/conference room and each draft is live and in-person, not online.
OK, now that you all know how both of these leagues work, I'll go over how my drafts went in both leagues in the next two posts, as well as trying to explain what I was trying to accomplish.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
David Price Gets Sent Down
In something that is very noteworthy for fantasy owners, David Price was optioned to the minor leagues today by the Tampa Bay Rays. Price seems likely to pitch at AAA until mid-to-late May, and if so, the team will be able to control him for another year due to the arbitration process. So what does this mean for fantasy owners?
The obvious reality is that this is a terrible baseball move for the Rays, and it's possible it could literally cost them a playoff berth this season. The team knows full-well that Price is better than Jason Hammel and Jeff Niemann (one of which will become the fifth starter at the start of the season), and not just that, but that Price also badly outpitched the other two in the spring, so it's not like the team could point to results, either. So let's say Price ends up making 24 starts instead of 32 or so. Hammel/Niemann will be making the first 8 starts from the fifth starter's spot. And let's say the team would've went 5-3 in those 8 starts had Price been the starter. Maybe they go 2-6 in the starts made by Hammel/Niemann. The team could be costing itself 2-4 games in the standings by this cost-cutting move, and in the ultra-competitive AL East, with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays fighting for only two playoff spots, that could be the difference.
Getting back to what this means for fantasy owners, don't panic, folks. I have Price in an AL-only keeper league and I'm obviously none too pleased with this, but it's not like I'm going to cut Price now. He's still going to get the call at worst by late May, and perhaps sooner if Hammel and Niemann stink it up enough or if there's an injury. Price is still going to be excellent this year in the big leagues when he gets called up, I have no doubt about that. If panicking fantasy owners waive Price, immediately pick him up! And for those of you that have already drafted him, hold onto him. For those of you that have drafts and auctions coming up, I would say that Price's value only drops minimally. I'd advise to draft him as you normally would have, and simply use a replacement pitcher in that spot in your rotation until he gets called up, at least in mixed leagues. There are so many viable options this year in mixed leagues at the starting pitcher slots that you would do well to have a guy like Hiroki Kuroda, for example, take up starts for a couple of months and then have Price start in that slot for the rest of the year.
The obvious reality is that this is a terrible baseball move for the Rays, and it's possible it could literally cost them a playoff berth this season. The team knows full-well that Price is better than Jason Hammel and Jeff Niemann (one of which will become the fifth starter at the start of the season), and not just that, but that Price also badly outpitched the other two in the spring, so it's not like the team could point to results, either. So let's say Price ends up making 24 starts instead of 32 or so. Hammel/Niemann will be making the first 8 starts from the fifth starter's spot. And let's say the team would've went 5-3 in those 8 starts had Price been the starter. Maybe they go 2-6 in the starts made by Hammel/Niemann. The team could be costing itself 2-4 games in the standings by this cost-cutting move, and in the ultra-competitive AL East, with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays fighting for only two playoff spots, that could be the difference.
Getting back to what this means for fantasy owners, don't panic, folks. I have Price in an AL-only keeper league and I'm obviously none too pleased with this, but it's not like I'm going to cut Price now. He's still going to get the call at worst by late May, and perhaps sooner if Hammel and Niemann stink it up enough or if there's an injury. Price is still going to be excellent this year in the big leagues when he gets called up, I have no doubt about that. If panicking fantasy owners waive Price, immediately pick him up! And for those of you that have already drafted him, hold onto him. For those of you that have drafts and auctions coming up, I would say that Price's value only drops minimally. I'd advise to draft him as you normally would have, and simply use a replacement pitcher in that spot in your rotation until he gets called up, at least in mixed leagues. There are so many viable options this year in mixed leagues at the starting pitcher slots that you would do well to have a guy like Hiroki Kuroda, for example, take up starts for a couple of months and then have Price start in that slot for the rest of the year.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Results From A Mixed League Draft
I had an online draft in a Yahoo league earlier today, and I thought I'd share the results. It's a mixed league with 10 teams, and, naturally, the Fantasy Leprechaun got hosed and ended up in the snake position, drafting tenth. It's always an interesting position, having to wait a long time to select, and then having to select back-to-back each time you make a pick. But I think it went well, as I ended up with a lot of balance in my hitting attack and I think my pitching staff is strong.
To my surprise, Grady Sizemore was still there at #10, so that was too good for me to pass up. The next pick, at 11, was interesting. With Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes off the board, and with a giant drop-off after Jimmy Rollins at the SS position, I decided to roll with J-Roll. I considered Josh Hamilton for a moment, but I knew there is great depth at OF this season so I thought it was smart to take Rollins instead of going with two top outfielders. If Sizemore had been gone and I was in the same position, I probably would have taken Hamilton and then Rollins.
When it came time to pick again at 30-31, I knew I wanted to take a stud starting pitcher with one of the 2 picks. And I did, going with the good Doc, Roy Halladay. But I actually had to check twice to make sure that sitting out there still was none other than Carlos Beltran. Carlos Beltran at #31? Why, yes, give me some of that!
At 50-51 I went with Kevin Youkilis and Alexei Ramirez, both solid values in those spots. I especially liked that Youk qualifies at both corner infield spots, while Ramirez qualifies at 2B, SS, and OF. At 70-71 I was able to land Josh Beckett and Garrett Atkins; I figure that at worst, Atkins will be a monster 3B to use for his home games at Coors Field. In the 90-91 spots I got another starter with stud credentials in Felix Hernandez, and grabbed Derrek Lee as well. At 110-111, the middle rounds of the draft, I got very solid value in Carlos Pena and Johnny Damon. Pena, even though slumping to .247 last season, has still hit more than 70 homers in the last 2 seasons, and Damon continues to rack up great Roto totals year after year. Both of those guys were great mid-round values.
For Rounds 13-14 (picks 130-131) I selected one of the best starters that doesn't get enough pub, Ricky Nolasco, and my first reliever, Matt Capps. Those who have followed my blog know that I never overpay for saves, and Capps is as solid a second tier closer as there is. I stocked up on OF help in the 15th and 16th rounds, nabbing Milton Bradley and Raul Ibanez. To me, both of these players are perfect examples of how deep OF is this season, and that you can wait in drafts to find yourself some solid guys at that position. Ibanez is getting older but has been great in recent years, and now moves from a pitcher's park to a hitter's park. Bradley, meanwhile, is a starter when he plays, it's as simple as that, and I got him in a spot where you're drafting bench players. My OF situation in this league is great.
My last six picks were Matt Garza and Mike Aviles (17th-18th rounds), Kevin Slowey and Mike Gonzalez (19th-20th), and Ramon Hernandez and Erik Bedard (21st-22nd rounds). You can see that I was still able to get a starter with as much upside as Garza quite late, and since this league has WHIP as a category Slowey was a good steal late as well. I waited until almost the end of the draft to get my starting catcher, which is fine with me. I like Hernandez's prospects this year hitting in Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. And Bedard was a great value in the last round...there's a lot of upside for a bounce-back season this year.
My team has four big-time power/speed threats, and a fifth, Johnny Damon, will chip in his share of homers as well as being great for steals. The other hitters in my lineup will put up good Roto numbers. And I have a starting staff of Halladay, Beckett, Felix Hernandez, Nolasco, and Garza, with Slowey and Bedard in reserve. That's four legitimate aces, and Garza has the potential to take another step up too.
Bottom line? Feel free to wait on outfielders, as there are a whole bunch that will give you solid values, and you can wait until the middle rounds to get even really good ones. You can also wait on nabbing really good starting pitchers, because once Lincecum and Johan Santana are off the board, and perhaps also CC Sabathia, it drops off a little bit from there into the pool of what I call really good starters, not great ones, and there are a bevy to choose from. There's not much of a difference from Halladay to Beckett, and they were picked 40 picks apart. Or, put another way, Felix Hernandez was picked 60 spots after Halladay.
It's now draft season, so good luck to everyone. And remember that there is a plethora of good outfielders, starting pitchers, and that you don't have to reach for a catcher or for relievers. I have two big drafts coming up next weekend, both auction drafts, with one an NL-only league and the other an AL-only league. I'll surely post the results of those next week.
To my surprise, Grady Sizemore was still there at #10, so that was too good for me to pass up. The next pick, at 11, was interesting. With Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes off the board, and with a giant drop-off after Jimmy Rollins at the SS position, I decided to roll with J-Roll. I considered Josh Hamilton for a moment, but I knew there is great depth at OF this season so I thought it was smart to take Rollins instead of going with two top outfielders. If Sizemore had been gone and I was in the same position, I probably would have taken Hamilton and then Rollins.
When it came time to pick again at 30-31, I knew I wanted to take a stud starting pitcher with one of the 2 picks. And I did, going with the good Doc, Roy Halladay. But I actually had to check twice to make sure that sitting out there still was none other than Carlos Beltran. Carlos Beltran at #31? Why, yes, give me some of that!
At 50-51 I went with Kevin Youkilis and Alexei Ramirez, both solid values in those spots. I especially liked that Youk qualifies at both corner infield spots, while Ramirez qualifies at 2B, SS, and OF. At 70-71 I was able to land Josh Beckett and Garrett Atkins; I figure that at worst, Atkins will be a monster 3B to use for his home games at Coors Field. In the 90-91 spots I got another starter with stud credentials in Felix Hernandez, and grabbed Derrek Lee as well. At 110-111, the middle rounds of the draft, I got very solid value in Carlos Pena and Johnny Damon. Pena, even though slumping to .247 last season, has still hit more than 70 homers in the last 2 seasons, and Damon continues to rack up great Roto totals year after year. Both of those guys were great mid-round values.
For Rounds 13-14 (picks 130-131) I selected one of the best starters that doesn't get enough pub, Ricky Nolasco, and my first reliever, Matt Capps. Those who have followed my blog know that I never overpay for saves, and Capps is as solid a second tier closer as there is. I stocked up on OF help in the 15th and 16th rounds, nabbing Milton Bradley and Raul Ibanez. To me, both of these players are perfect examples of how deep OF is this season, and that you can wait in drafts to find yourself some solid guys at that position. Ibanez is getting older but has been great in recent years, and now moves from a pitcher's park to a hitter's park. Bradley, meanwhile, is a starter when he plays, it's as simple as that, and I got him in a spot where you're drafting bench players. My OF situation in this league is great.
My last six picks were Matt Garza and Mike Aviles (17th-18th rounds), Kevin Slowey and Mike Gonzalez (19th-20th), and Ramon Hernandez and Erik Bedard (21st-22nd rounds). You can see that I was still able to get a starter with as much upside as Garza quite late, and since this league has WHIP as a category Slowey was a good steal late as well. I waited until almost the end of the draft to get my starting catcher, which is fine with me. I like Hernandez's prospects this year hitting in Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. And Bedard was a great value in the last round...there's a lot of upside for a bounce-back season this year.
My team has four big-time power/speed threats, and a fifth, Johnny Damon, will chip in his share of homers as well as being great for steals. The other hitters in my lineup will put up good Roto numbers. And I have a starting staff of Halladay, Beckett, Felix Hernandez, Nolasco, and Garza, with Slowey and Bedard in reserve. That's four legitimate aces, and Garza has the potential to take another step up too.
Bottom line? Feel free to wait on outfielders, as there are a whole bunch that will give you solid values, and you can wait until the middle rounds to get even really good ones. You can also wait on nabbing really good starting pitchers, because once Lincecum and Johan Santana are off the board, and perhaps also CC Sabathia, it drops off a little bit from there into the pool of what I call really good starters, not great ones, and there are a bevy to choose from. There's not much of a difference from Halladay to Beckett, and they were picked 40 picks apart. Or, put another way, Felix Hernandez was picked 60 spots after Halladay.
It's now draft season, so good luck to everyone. And remember that there is a plethora of good outfielders, starting pitchers, and that you don't have to reach for a catcher or for relievers. I have two big drafts coming up next weekend, both auction drafts, with one an NL-only league and the other an AL-only league. I'll surely post the results of those next week.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Mixed League Top 15: First Base
Here's my list of the top 15 mixed league first basemen, with notes attached.
Albert Pujols
Albert Pujols
- In a tier all his own, Pujols gives you great power with an even greater batting average. Only possible downside is the elbow, but it appears to be in better shape now than last year. If he hit .360, honestly, would it really shock anybody? He's that good.
- Begins the second tier. Cabrera has probably not even entered his prime yet, a scary thought, and is likely to improve his average and run total from a year ago. Also qualifies at third base in most leagues, an added bonus.
- In a great lineup and in a great park for left-handed batters, Teixeira is likely to bat around .300 and will be a beast in the HR, RBI, Hits, and Runs categories.
- Do you prefer Howard or Teixeira? Howard's power numbers will be much higher but his average will be much lower. Their value is similar. Depends what your pleasure is.
- Consistently provides excellence and is likely for another .300-30-100-100 type of season. Begins the third tier of first baseman and is among the safest options possible.
- Fielder could easily get back to 40 homers in '09. You know you're good when 34 homers and 102 RBI are considered a disappointment. There's Ryan Howard-type upside, and he did hit 50 homers in 2007.
- Dependable and steady, Morneau is a big-time RBI man that has missed only 10 games over the last 3 seasons. His three year average is .298-29-123-93. 'Nuff said.
- Imagine what he would do out of PETCO Park. Two year average is .280-33-110-102. Weak lineup around him, but he'll get his. Too good a player not to.
- Fenway Park suits him perfectly, and I think he's closer to the 29 HR's of last year than he is to the 16 of '07. Batting cleanup in a loaded Red Sox lineup. Also qualifies at third base in many leagues. I'm buying.
- Votto starts the fourth tier. In the third spot in the lineup I expect a breakout year from him, with a great park to hit in. Could come close to a .300-30-100 season.
- Lee is not an elite power option, but gives you solid across-the-board production nonetheless, even chipping in close to 10 steals. Has a good lineup spot in a great Cubs offense.
- Pena is the Ryan Howard of this tier, a poor man's version, since he is a legit 30-40 HR threat that will not hit for a great average. Pat Burrell hitting behind him helps.
- Enormous potential hitting in a haven for sluggers. In 80 games last year hit 17 homers and drove in 55. Legit 30-plus HR power. Great upside play. Also qualifies at third base in many leagues.
- Don't expect a repeat of .304-32-108-96 like last season, but .280-25-100-85 would still be quite nice. Seems to have found a niche in Baltimore, and batting cleanup behind Nick Markakis is a good spot for any hitter. Also qualifies at third base in many leagues.
- You know you aren't getting a good average, but you do know what you're getting from Dunn. Exactly 40 HR's in four straight seasons. Expect something like .245-40-100-90. Qualifies at first base and OF, which helps.
NL Closer Situations
Following our look at the closing situations in the American League, here's the outlook on the closing situations in the National League, again from West to East.
- L.A. Dodgers--With Takashi Saito gone, Jonathan Broxton is the new Dodger closer, and he has tremendous upside as a fireballing strikeout artist. He's a second-tier option, but one with the upside to be an elite option. The inexperience at closing knocks him down just a touch. Should he falter or get injured, it really gets unpredictable, because Hong-Chi Kuo has major injury concerns and probably couldn't hold up in that role. Cory Wade was a good setup man last year but is more of a control pitcher suited for a 7th or 8th inning role. James McDonald could be the fallback option if Broxton went down, but his role on the staff is still unclear (he may end up as the fifth starter in the rotation).
- San Francisco--Brian Wilson's job is not in question for the Giants after saving 41 games in 47 opportunities last season. He's a middle-tier option, though, due to the high 4.62 ERA and 1.44 WHIP from last year. But his job is secure so you could certainly do worse, and expect the ERA to come down quite a bit this season. Should he go down, veteran Bob Howry would get the chance to close.
- San Diego--With Trevor Hoffman gone to Milwaukee, Heath Bell slides into the role of closer for the Padres, and is a lower-end option, albeit one with some upside. PETCO Park is kind to pitchers, so his ERA will likely stay solid, and he is a strikeout pitcher. On the downside, his save chances could be limited because San Diego is going to be terrible this year, and he's never closed before, so there's some risk. Bell should have a long leash, though, with no obvious replacement on the roster. Cla Meredith is a sidewinding soft-tossing setup man, but would probably become closer by default if something happened to Bell.
- Arizona--Chad Qualls has a firm grip on the closer role entering the season for the D'backs. After Brandon Lyon lost the role last season, Qualls stepped in and was solid. Qualls has been a dependable setup man, with good stuff, for a few seasons now, so he should be considered a lower-tier option with some upside, like Heath Bell. There's some risk, of course, since he has never been a closer for an entire season. Should he falter or go down, Tony Pena and Jon Rauch are options.
- Colorado--Will it be Manny Corpas or Huston Street? It was just assumed by most that Street would get the job after coming over from Oakland in the Matt Holliday trade, but Corpas is in the mix still. Corpas was outpitching Street early in camp, but Street has been better of late, so this one is still too close to call. Street could be a candidate to be dealt again in July if the Rockies are not contending, so the team may want him to win the job in order to showcase him. But due to Street's injury history, Corpas is likely to garner some saves even if he doesn't win the job. Watch this situation because a decision is likely to come next week. For now, give Street the slight edge and consider him a low-end option, with Corpas a low-end option also, but with good keeper league potential.
- Houston--Jose Valverde has led the NL in saves for the last two seasons and is an elite option in NL-only leagues, and a top 7 or 8 option overall. His role couldn't be more secure, so fantasy owners can feel safe drafting him, although he is likely to not come cheap. If he got injured, there isn't an obvious choice to replace him, although it would likely be LaTroy Hawkins or Geoff Geary.
- Milwaukee--Hell's Bells will be playing in Milwaukee, as their new closer is Trevor Hoffman. The change lowers Hoffman's fantasy value because he goes from an extreme pitcher's park to a hitter's park, but he is still a decent middle-to-low-end option because his role is secure on his new team. Keep in mind that there's risk due to the advancing age and ballpark switch, though. Should he miss time, Seth McClung or Carlos Villanueva would get the call to replace him.
- Chicago Cubs--This one is interesting. Carlos Marmol has filthy stuff, but the team traded for Kevin Gregg and Gregg has been great this spring. Manager Lou Piniella loves to use Marmol for more than 3 outs at a time, so there's some talk that he may opt for the veteran Gregg to close and Marmol to be the setup man, at least initially. We should find out something definitive next week. If Marmol gets the job, he immediately is a top-tier option because of his incredible strikeout totals and great peripherals. If Gregg gets the job, obviously his fantasy value skyrockets and Marmol's takes a hit. If you're drafting right now, Marmol is the better one to own, as he would be likely to eventually take back the job, but Gregg is worth a flier because if he kept the job all year, he would be a top second-tier option.
- Pittsburgh--Matt Capps is about as safe a second-tier NL-only option at closer as you will find, and a solid #2 closer in mixed leagues. Capps isn't likely to approach 40 saves because the Pirates aren't very good, but he will post a solid ERA and WHIP for his fantasy owners, and nobody threatens his job. There is a slight possibility that Capps could get traded come July, but if so his value would probably go up due to more save chances. There is no obvious choice to replace Capps if he were injured or traded; young Craig Hansen is a possibility, but has been brutal in the big leagues so far in his young career.
- Cincinnati--Francisco Cordero is entrenched as the closer and is a solid high-end #2 closer for fantasy owners, having saved 78 games in 91 chances in the NL for the Brewers and Reds over the last 2 seasons, with ERA's of 2.98 and 3.33, respectively. As a guy likely to post 35-40 saves with a decent ERA and good strikeout totals--Cordero has struck out more than a batter per inning every year since 2003--he's a comfortable option. Should he go down, the venerable David Weathers would close for the Reds (33 saves in 2007).
- St. Louis--Like in Chicago, we don't have a clear-cut answer as to who will open the season as the closer, or if it will be a committee. The competition is between two youngsters (Chris Perez and Jason Motte) and a veteran (Ryan Franklin). Franklin's stuff is best suited for a setup role, but Manager Tony LaRussa may opt for experience, at least initially. Perez got a shot last year late in the year, saving 7 games, and had 42 K's in 41 innings. Motte is a wild card, with virtually no big league experience, but he's the hardest-throwing of the three and is having the best spring. This one's tough to call, as LaRussa could opt for the veteran, the guy who ended last season with the role, or the guy having the best spring. If you're drafting today, give Perez a very slight edge, but this situation could change soon. Watch carefully.
- Philadelphia--Brad Lidge quieted the doubters after moving to the Phillies last season and re-established himself as an elite closer, and has to be considered a top-5 option at the position for fantasy owners. Amazingly, Lidge did not blow a save during the regular season (in fact, his only blown save was in the All-Star Game), going 41-for-41 in save chances, and then converted another seven chances perfectly in the postseason. While being perfect is not likely to occur again, Lidge should be good for another 35-40 saves while posting his usual eye-popping strikeout numbers and good ERA. Ryan Madson has emerged as one of the top setup men in baseball and would close if Lidge went down.
- New York Mets--The Mets likely would have won the NL East last year with a better bullpen, and they addressed that need big-time by signing Francisco Rodriguez, along with trading for J.J. Putz. K-Rod will be the undisputed closer for the Mets, and even though he may cede an occasional chance to Putz, Frankie is an elite closer option and shouldn't last past the top five or six closers taken. Nitpickers will say his strikeout rate has dropped and his WHIP has risen, but a move to the NL should help him, and his velocity is actually up from last year already. Rodriguez is young, strikes guys out, posts consistently low ERA's, and will be closing for a contending team. There's not much to dislike here.
- Atlanta--Hard-throwing lefty Mike Gonzalez is the closer as long as he can stay healthy, but that's a legitimate question, so Gonzalez is a low-end #2 fantasy closer, albeit one with upside. Besides the injury concerns, he could lose occasional save chances to an even bigger injury risk, Rafael Soriano. If both Gonzalez and Soriano could actually stay healthy, the Atlanta bullpen would be set late in games. If both guys were hurt (a possibility that can't be discounted), Manny Acosta could be a deep sleeper to close, although there wouldn't be an obvious choice.
- Washington--Joel Hanrahan took over as the closer last season after Jon Rauch was traded, and did a nice job, recording 9 saves over the final two months of the season. He is a low-end option for fantasy owners, but one of the safer ones because his role is not really threatened by anybody on the roster. He would really have to bomb to get replaced. The downside is that Hanrahan can struggle with his control, so his WHIP and ERA won't be great. Also, he may not get to 30 saves because Washington isn't a very good team. But, on the plus side, Hanrahan struck out 93 batters in 84 innings last year. As the closer all year, he won't pitch as many innings, but 80 K's are possible. Saul Rivera would probably get the call to close is Hanrahan were injured.
- Florida--Matt Lindstrom is the guy, but could begin the season on the DL due to a strained rotator cuff suffered while pitching for the USA in the World Baseball Classic. The injury doesn't appear serious, so it doesn't really bring his stock down too much, and Lindstrom should be considered a low-end closer with upside, with the ability to post decent strikeout totals because he throws so hard (though he has averaged a little less than a strikeout per inning in his career). If healthy, the job is definitely his. The injury does present some risk, as does the fact he's never closed over a full season. Leo Nunez will close if Lindstrom starts the season on the DL, so he's worth a flier in deep NL-only leagues in case Lindstrom's injury lingers.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
AL Closer Situations
Let's take a look at the Closer situations for each AL team, going from West to East.
- L.A. Angels--Brian Fuentes has a firm grip on 9th inning duties, and don't let the bad spring worry you. Due to the fact that the Angels play a lot of close games, Fuentes has a legitimate chance to save 40 games, and is a great option as a second-tier closer. Should he falter or get injured, Jose Arredondo would be the better choice to close over Scot Shields, who is better suited as a setup man.
- Texas--Frank Francisco is unquestionably the closer heading into the season, based on his strong finish to last season and the disappointment of C.J. Wilson as the closer last season. Francisco racks up high strikeout totals and is a decent low-end option for saves, with some upside. Wilson and Eddie Guardado are still around, but not major threats if Francisco stays healthy.
- Oakland--Manager Bob Geren has stated that Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler will be co-closers as the season begins. Assuming both stay healthy, the likely scenario is that Devine would eventually take over as the guy and Ziegler would go back to what he's better suited to do as a Chad Bradford type, and that's setup for Devine. But Devine has a checkered injury history for a young pitcher, so it's not so clear-cut. Devine is the better guy to own of the two, but don't overpay based on the huge hype he's getting.
- Seattle--This is the most muddled situation in the big leagues. Is it Miguel Batista? Is it Mark Lowe? Roy Corcoran? David Aardsma? Is Brandon Morrow going back to the pen? At the present moment, there's just very little information we have to go on as to which one will end up the closer, and it very well could be a committee deal. Fantasy owners should just stay away from this whole situation, but if you are in an utterly deep league and want to roll the dice with one of these guys I'd go with Aardsma.
- Chicago White Sox--Bobby Jenks is firmly entrenched here, and one of the most solid second-tier options. If he were to get injured, two strikeout pitchers are next in line: Octavio Dotel (92 K's in 67 innings last year) and Matt Thornton (77 K's in 67 innings last year).
- Minnesota--Joe Nathan is just about as good as it gets and an elite option for fantasy owners. With Pat Neshek likely out for the year following Tommy John surgery, Jesse Crain will step into the setup role, meaning that if Nathan were to go down, Crain would be the likely choice to close.
- Kansas City--Joakim Soria is, like Nathan, one of the elite options, though he isn't as proven as Nathan or some of the other elite options. Nevertheless, Soria is the real deal. Should he go down, Kyle Farnsworth would probably be first in line to close, and the team also has the recently-signed Juan Cruz around.
- Cleveland--Kerry Wood is the man, after his 2-year deal in the offseason. There's no question he would be an elite closer option if injuries weren't a concern, but of course they are, so he slides down into the second or perhaps even third tier of closer options. If Wood lands on the DL, Jensen Lewis would step in. Lewis ended last season as the closer and did a fine job.
- Detroit--Brandon Lyon is the likely closer to begin the season, although Manager Jim Leyland has said that Fernando Rodney could get some opportunities as well. Lyon lost his closer job last season in Arizona, so Rodney has a real chance to step in if/when Lyon falters, although Rodney hasn't exactly excelled when given chances to close before. The dream scenario is that Joel Zumaya gets healthy and eventually takes the job, but he simply can't be counted on right now due to injuries. Lyon has to be considered one of the last closer options on draft day, with Rodney a potential sleeper.
- Boston--You know how confident Red Sox fans feel when Jonathan Papelbon enters a game in the 9th inning? That's how his fantasy owners feel, too. He's the safest and best option in AL-only leagues, and probably mixed leagues too. Should he go down, Takashi Saito would get save chances, assuming he can stay healthy, which is a big assumption. After Saito, Manny Delcarmen would likely be next in line.
- New York Yankees--Possibly the best to ever close out games, Mariano Rivera still gets it done and is still an elite option on draft day. Offseason surgery does not appear to be a deterring factor, as Rivera is perfectly on schedule this spring and has looked unhittable in his first couple of spring appearances. Due to his advancing age, there's always the chance that he could go down. And if so, unheralded, but talented, Brian Bruney would have a chance to close. Damaso Marte is the other possibility, although he's more suited for a setup role as a lefty.
- Tampa Bay--Troy Percival looks like he will be ready to start the season at closer, but how long he can stay there is anybody's guess. After offseason back surgery, the 39-year-old is a major injury risk, and as such, Tampa Bay's top setup men have value (and Percival is no more than one of the last options you should consider on draft day). Dan Wheeler would be the logical choice to close, since he has closing experience and got the majority of the saves last season when Percival went down. Grant Balfour had a monster year and is a great strikeout pitcher, so he could be an option as well. And if healthy, Jason Isringhausen shouldn't be forgotten, either. Izzy was a great closer for the Cardinals when he was healthy, so Manager Joe Maddon could opt for his veteran experience in that role if he were healthy and Percival were not.
- Toronto--B.J. Ryan was solid last season following Tommy John surgery, and another year removed from the surgery should be even better this season. He may not get back to his ridiculously dominant self pre-surgery, but he's still one of the best second-tier closer options. If he went down, the best guess is that Jeremy Accardo would step in, due to his 30 saves in 2007 when Ryan had the surgery. But Accardo isn't even a lock to make the team at this point, so keep that in mind.
- Baltimore--George Sherrill is the team's closer to open the season, but is a low-end option, because Chris Ray is knocking at the door. Ray was, and likely is, the future at closer for the Orioles, but missed all of last season following Tommy John surgery, which was why Sherrill had the role last season after coming over from Seattle. Sherrill should keep the role as long as he's effective, but if he is, he's a prime trade candidate in July. Given his struggles in the second half last season, counting on Sherrill to be effective all year is a big "if".
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Players To Avoid in the AL
Here are eight players that I feel should be avoided in the American League this season and, spoiler alert, the highest-paid player in the game is on the list. Let's jump right in.
Joe Saunders was better than the Angels could have hoped last season. Saunders had showed moxie and poise in stints with the Halos in 2006 and 2007, compiling 31 starts, tossing 178 innings, and going 15-8 in that span. In those two years, his ERA was a shade over 4.5 and he struck out 120 batters in those 178 innings. Basically, those would be solid numbers for a #4 or #5 starter, not too dissimilar from a guy like Jamie Moyer. So it was quite a surprise when Saunders finished the 2008 season sporting a sparkling 3.41 ERA, in addition to going 17-7. But fantasy owners, not to mention Angel management, should not be expecting a repeat of that ERA. Nowhere near it, quite frankly. Saunders profiles as a pitcher that should have an ERA of between 4-4.5, based on his extreme flyball tendencies, lack of strikeouts, and the fact that his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) last year was so low it has to be considered a fluke. Saunders will likely still post a good win total this season, because he's one of those guys that just battles and gets out of trouble, but you shouldn't expect an ERA of less than 4 and you shouldn't expect more than 120 strikeouts. I have him going 13-9 with a 4.35 ERA and striking out 115 batters. That certainly isn't horrific, but it won't be 2007, I assure you. Let another owner see the 2007 stats and take him.
Joe Saunders was better than the Angels could have hoped last season. Saunders had showed moxie and poise in stints with the Halos in 2006 and 2007, compiling 31 starts, tossing 178 innings, and going 15-8 in that span. In those two years, his ERA was a shade over 4.5 and he struck out 120 batters in those 178 innings. Basically, those would be solid numbers for a #4 or #5 starter, not too dissimilar from a guy like Jamie Moyer. So it was quite a surprise when Saunders finished the 2008 season sporting a sparkling 3.41 ERA, in addition to going 17-7. But fantasy owners, not to mention Angel management, should not be expecting a repeat of that ERA. Nowhere near it, quite frankly. Saunders profiles as a pitcher that should have an ERA of between 4-4.5, based on his extreme flyball tendencies, lack of strikeouts, and the fact that his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) last year was so low it has to be considered a fluke. Saunders will likely still post a good win total this season, because he's one of those guys that just battles and gets out of trouble, but you shouldn't expect an ERA of less than 4 and you shouldn't expect more than 120 strikeouts. I have him going 13-9 with a 4.35 ERA and striking out 115 batters. That certainly isn't horrific, but it won't be 2007, I assure you. Let another owner see the 2007 stats and take him.
I think the perception of Michael Cuddyer is that he would be a really good player if he could stay healthy and get 550 AB's, and people pretty much point to his 2006 season as an example of that. In 2006, Cuddyer hit .284 with 24 homers and 109 RBI, and scored 102 runs. But I just don't have much faith in Cuddyer. I say that because Cuddyer is not a young kid, he's 30 years old, and 2006 is the only season where he was anything close to a great player for fantasy owners. In 761 AB's over 2004-2005, Cuddyer hit .263 (in both seasons he hit exactly that) with 24 homers and 87 RBI. After the big 2006 season, Cuddyer hit .276 in 2007, with 16 homers and 81 RBI, in 547 AB's. What I'm trying to say is that even if Cuddyer got close to 550 AB's again, he's more likely to be a player that has stats similar to 2007 as opposed to 2006. Throw in the fact that Cuddyer is a legitimate injury risk, and also the fact that the Twins have 3 other legitimate outfield options, and Cuddyer is simply not worth anything more than a late look in deep AL-only leagues. I'd much rather have Denard Span. Or Delmon Young. Or Jason Kubel. Or even Carlos Gomez. You get the idea, I hope. If not, here's one last reminder: Cuddyer had only 3 homers in 249 AB's last season. Cuddyer seems like a guy to me that is heading towards a career path of being a platoon player against lefty starters, since he has hit lefties well in his career.
Speaking of hitters that have lost their power that I have, in turn, lost faith in, Travis Hafner fell off the face of the Earth last season. The question is, can he return to being the old Pronk and become a legitimate injury-risk sleeper this season? Sadly, I just don't think it's happening. Hafner was, of course, one of the most feared hitters in the AL as recently as the first half of 2007. Hafner, as most fantasy owners know, was exceptional from 2004 to 2006, and started off great again in '07. But Hafner tailed off badly in the second half of '07, with very little power, finishing with only 24 homers (he had hit 42 in 2006), and he struggled mightily in the postseason as well. And last year, well, Hafner batted .197 with 5 homers in 197 AB's. Was Hafner that injured? Was he a guy that used to be on the juice and now can't play without it? Will the surgery that he had in the offseason bring him back to the guy he once was? If you break it all down, it's just not likely Hafner will be anything close to the player he once was. If his shoulder was that damaged to debilitate his performance so drastically last season, are we to believe that this won't have lingering effects this season? And considering that his shoulder surgery wasn't considered to be major, I just think other factors are at play here. You can draw your own conclusions on that one, but I think 20 homers is about the ceiling for Hafner now and he isn't worth anything more than an extremely late flier in drafts.
Moving on to Gary Sheffield, I feel like I've just flopped a set of three hitters that have lost it. At least in Sheff's case, he is 40 years old, compared to Cuddyer and Hafner, who are just 30 and 31, respectively. The risk with old players, of course, is that they can just lose it big time, and it looks like it's already happened with Sheffield. At age 36, Sheff was still a monster hitter with the Yankees in 2005, going .291-34-123. Then he missed most of 2006, but still was pretty solid in the 151 AB's he did have. But after moving on to Detroit in 2007, in his age-38 season, the sharp decline began. Sheffield only hit .265 (he's a career .292 hitter) with 25 homers and 75 RBI, in nearly 500 AB's. It was clear his vaunted bat speed was diminishing. And last year, in an effort to still provide power, he managed to hit 19 homers in 418 AB's. The problem with that? He hit .225 and his strikeout rate spiked up dramatically. Sheffield is sitting at 499 career homers, so he'll certainly reach the 500 plateau soon, but there won't be many great moments for him this year. It's the end of a great career for Sheffield, and fantasy owners shouldn't go near him this season.
Brandon Lyon is going to begin the season as Detroit's primary closer. There's a good chance he won't end it there. For some reason, Lyon was given at least two cracks at being the Arizona closer over the years when he was healthy, and each time he lost the job. It's apparent to scouts, and to most fans that know the game, that Lyon simply doesn't have very good stuff. The fact that he may rack up some saves before inevitably sucking--sometimes bluntness is the best way to get your point across--doesn't mean that you should want him on your fantasy squad. Lyon couldn't keep his ERA under 4.5 in the NL last year (it was 4.7), and going to the AL could be disastrous for him. The only thing he does well is not walk people. Hitters are glad, too, because his pitches are so hittable. Lyon was constantly in trouble in the ninth inning last year, as evidenced by his ghastly 1.48 WHIP, and it was only a matter of time before the big innings cropped up, and he finally lost his job to Chad Qualls. Lyon is simply not suited to be a closer, and he should be considered as one of the last AL closer options you have. I'd advise that fantasy owners steer clear. Lyon is a gas can waiting to explode on you.
Sticking to the closer theme, I wouldn't go anywhere near Troy Percival this season for fantasy purposes. Percival's return to the game is a great story, and he did help the Rays a lot last season, especially early, but Percival has red flags abound. He's 39, he couldn't finish last season, and he had offseason back surgery. And even though he did convert 28 of 32 save opportunities last season, he did so with a 4.53 ERA, and a .181 BABIP, ridiculously low even for the most unhittable of pitchers. You have to expect at least one DL stint for Percival, and it may only take one to knock him out for the year at his age. At best, Percival is worth a look at the very end of AL-only leagues, and if you select him and he has a good start to the season, my advice to you is to try to trade him before the inevitable injury pops up.
The last two players on my list are high-priced Yankees, and the first one is none other than Alex Rodriguez. This has nothing to do with ability, as Alex is great, postseason failures notwithstanding. He's a great player for fantasy purposes. But not this year. This just isn't the year to get him. There's just way too much that could blow up in your face as a fantasy owner. If you could get him as a bargain in the middle rounds of a draft or for much less than what he usually goes for at an auction, it would be one thing. But due to his name value and his enormous ability, he isn't dropping nearly far enough in drafts. The fact is that at best, Rodriguez could return in very late April/early May. That means about 16% of his season is wiped out, immediately. Then you have to consider that it's likely he'd get a few more days off than usual, even if he didn't suffer any setbacks, so up that to about 20%. Then there's the possibility that he actually won't return until mid-May or even late-May, and if he returns in late May that's 30% of the season gone. Then consider the fact that the doctors say that sure, he can play with this injury after the minor surgery he just had, and then have the more invasive surgery in the offseason. But what happens if he aggravates the injury sliding? Diving for a ball? Sleeping on it wrong? Who knows, but the point is that he's at risk of injuring the hip again, knocking him out of games, or, certainly, affecting his performance. There's a legitimate chance he just won't be able to play at his normal level and have to be shut down for the year, despite anything that the Yankees will say. Again, take all of this information, add it up, and you come to the logical conclusion that due to the price you'll have to pay to get him, it simply isn't the right year to own Alex. Let somebody else deal with the risk.
Speaking of risk and the Yankees, A.J. Burnett is my last player on this list as a player to avoid in fantasy drafts and auctions for 2009. While Burnett isn't Carl Pavano--at least Burnett is legitimately a top-of-the-rotation starter when healthy--the Yankees are not likely to get a full return on their 5 year, 82.5 million dollar investment. Burnett, perhaps not coincidentally, tossed a career-high 221 innings last season, in a contract year, leading him to the mega-contract with the Yankees. But in the previous two seasons, he threw a total of 301 innings. He's only made 211 starts in a 10-year career (it seems like Burnett can't be 32, but he is). You simply aren't being realistic if you expect Burnett to make 33 starts this season. He will be very good when he's out there, but the injury risk should be dropping him lower in drafts, and it isn't, probably due to the fact that he has more visibility now as a Yankee starting pitcher. My issue here isn't performance. It's value. Burnett is going as high as Felix Hernandez in a lot of drafts I've seen, and it's foolish. I don't want that kind of injury risk associated with my #2 fantasy starter, and that's where he's slotting in drafts.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Players to Avoid in the NL
The following are six National League players that I feel should be avoided in drafts and auctions this year. So for those considering Carlos Zambrano, Michael Bourn, Bill Hall, Trevor Hoffman, John Maine, and Jamie Moyer, take note.
Carlos Zambrano has been trending in the wrong direction for a couple of years, and due to his ace status and name recognition you'll have to pay to get him, and for me he's not worth the investment this season. Zambrano's strikeout rate has dropped sharply over the last two seasons and his WHIP is rising. His ERA over his last 8 starts of 2008 was 7.93, and that includes his September no-hitter. His former mid-90's fastball was barely above 90 last season, and even though Big Z still takes the ball, the huge workload early in his career could lead to an inevitable breakdown this season. Some might say Zambrano has the talent to get back to his fireballing ways, but I just don't think his arm is the same. I wasn't bullish on Zambrano last season, and I'm even less so on him this year.
Michael Bourn would be a major fantasy asset if he could merely hit .270 and keep the Astros' CF job all season, because he would be a lock for at least 40 steals. But Bourn, to put it bluntly, is a good-hitting pitcher. Jason Bourne might be a better hitter. He has no pop in his bat whatsoever, and because he doesn't take walks and doesn't hit for average, Bourn is basically worthless for a real baseball team other than pinch-running. He's having such a bad spring that Houston may do the right thing and send him down to the minors, and let Darin Erstad and Reggie Abercrombie share time in center. When a team is considering giving regular starts to Darin Erstad--no offense, Erstie--that's pretty bad. Even if Bourn wins the job, he will likely hit 8th in the order, severely limiting his ability to score runs. Bourn can only help you in one category, so feel free to pass.
Carlos Zambrano has been trending in the wrong direction for a couple of years, and due to his ace status and name recognition you'll have to pay to get him, and for me he's not worth the investment this season. Zambrano's strikeout rate has dropped sharply over the last two seasons and his WHIP is rising. His ERA over his last 8 starts of 2008 was 7.93, and that includes his September no-hitter. His former mid-90's fastball was barely above 90 last season, and even though Big Z still takes the ball, the huge workload early in his career could lead to an inevitable breakdown this season. Some might say Zambrano has the talent to get back to his fireballing ways, but I just don't think his arm is the same. I wasn't bullish on Zambrano last season, and I'm even less so on him this year.
Michael Bourn would be a major fantasy asset if he could merely hit .270 and keep the Astros' CF job all season, because he would be a lock for at least 40 steals. But Bourn, to put it bluntly, is a good-hitting pitcher. Jason Bourne might be a better hitter. He has no pop in his bat whatsoever, and because he doesn't take walks and doesn't hit for average, Bourn is basically worthless for a real baseball team other than pinch-running. He's having such a bad spring that Houston may do the right thing and send him down to the minors, and let Darin Erstad and Reggie Abercrombie share time in center. When a team is considering giving regular starts to Darin Erstad--no offense, Erstie--that's pretty bad. Even if Bourn wins the job, he will likely hit 8th in the order, severely limiting his ability to score runs. Bourn can only help you in one category, so feel free to pass.
Bill Hall might be seen as a potential sleeper pick because of his great stat line from 2006, but don't buy into that. Hall has been exposed badly over the last two seasons as a guy that can't hit right-handed pitching. Considering that 75-80% of the time a righty will be starting, that's ominous. Hall's batting average against righties last year? One hundred and seventy four. A buck seventy four! Hall can hit lefties, but is miscast as a regular third baseman. He's probably best suited to be a super-utility player that can get starts vs. lefties. He's worth nothing but a very late flier in NL-only leagues.
Trevor Hoffman is a surefire Hall of Famer, and even with a mid-80's fastball in recent years has gotten the job done closing out games for the Padres. While his job will not be threatened, I am steering clear of Hoffman this season. Hoffman is 41, and when older pitchers lose it, they lose it big time. That's not guaranteeing that Hoffman will lose it (he did strike out 46 hitters in 45 innings last year), but do you really want to pay to take that risk? Hoffman is also iffy to start the season with a strained oblique, which is just another reminder of how injuries can easily crop up for somebody over 40. Need another reason to be skeptical? Hoffman is an extreme flyball pitcher, and he now goes from the spacious PETCO Park to the hitters' yard that is Miller Park for his home games. Hoffman will still rack up some Saves, but there are far too many question marks for me to like him this year as anything more than a low-end NL Closer. Don't overpay here because of the Hall of Fame resume.
I think that John Maine is a very solid pitcher, but I don't like his prospects for this season. Coming off shoulder surgery, Maine has struggled with velocity this spring and may have, at the very least, trouble in the first half of this season. Due to his success in the New York rotation over the last two years, he is likely to be overvalued in drafts and auctions. As Maine regains strength in that shoulder, he could fare better as the season goes on, but I think his numbers will be down across the board. Looking into my crystal ball, I think Maine could be a nice bounce-back candidate for next season, but I'm not high on him this season.
Most guys that are Jamie Moyer's age that play baseball are actually playing in adult softball leagues. Some might say that Moyer actually throws softballs up there. In any case, Moyer really had a fountain-of-youth 2008 season, as the now-46-year-old had a 16-7 record and solid 3.71 ERA. He's made at least 32 starts in every season since 2001, so he's even less of an injury risk than you'd expect. But it would be foolish to expect another sub-4 ERA, and considering that his ERA was over 5 in 2007, I can't recommend Moyer as anything but a low-end option in NL-only leagues. Throwing the junk up there that Moyer does, he's always at the risk of getting hammered, and you definitely don't want a pitcher that could put up a very high ERA dragging down your staff ERA, since Moyer is likely to come close to 200 innings pitched. The win potential is nice, but you don't want to be on the wrong side of a bad ERA season. As I mentioned with Trevor Hoffman, when old guys lose it, they lose it big time.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Sleepers--AL West
This last post about sleeper picks from each division takes us to the AL West, the division ruled by the Angels in recent seasons.
So who's undervalued, flying-under-the-radar, or has tremendous upside potential for the Halos this season? My best choice here is Kelvim Escobar, who is largely being forgotten due to his past injury woes and the fact that he missed all of last season. As I've said before, when you are constructing your bench, it's always good to spend your last pick or two on players that, if things broke right, could excel. High upside picks. Picks that, if they don't pan out, don't hurt your team. I think Escobar is just that. When Escobar has been healthy, he's pitched like a #2 starter. Just two seasons ago, in 2007, Escobar was a sparkling 18-7 in 30 starts with a great 3.40 ERA, adding 160 K's in 195 innings. And in 2006, also in 30 starts, Escobar's ERA was 3.61, with 147 K's in 189 innings (his record was 11-14, illustrating just how volatile won-loss records can be). His WHIP was under 1.3 both years, which isn't great but pretty solid. I feel pretty good recommending Escobar as a late flier because reports on his recovery in Angels camp are good. Before Spring Training, Angels officials would've been happy with a July return for Escobar. But he appears to be so far ahead of that timetable that he could be back in the Angels rotation by late May, if all goes well. His fastball apparently is already in the low-90's in bullpen sessions, and he's not far from appearing in games. If Escobar does make it back before June, you could have a potential #2 starter for 2/3 of the season. That's well worth gambling a late pick on.
When you think of the Texas Rangers, you know you can't recommend any pitchers, so that leads me to their hitters. There's enough hype surrounding Nelson Cruz and especially Chris Davis that they definitely can't be considered sleepers. I think Elvis Andrus could hurt your team's batting average so I can't recommend him, either, even with the SB potential he has. That leads me to Hank Blalock. Blalock now has the reputation of being an injury-prone player, and as such his value has diminished considerably. Let's take a look at what we know. Blalock is still only 28 years old, so physically, he's just entering his prime. He burst onto the scene in 2003 at age 22, slugging .522 and hitting 29 homers. Then in 2004 he slugged .500 and mashed 32 homers. But in 2005 and 2006, while getting full-time AB's, his slugging percentage dropped to .431 and then to .401, and his homers dropped from 25 to just 16. And since his 2007 and 2008 seasons were injury-marred, with only a total of 466 AB's, Blalock is largely being written off. Due to the injury concerns you can't invest highly in him, obviously, but I think that there's reason for optimism for Blalock this season if you look closely at the facts. First off, Blalock is in a great spot if he stays healthy and in the lineup. Against righties, he is slated to bat cleanup behind Josh Hamilton, and will still probably hit fifth against lefties (or at worst sixth). The cleanup hitter for the Rangers almost automatically has solid value. Next, Blalock will qualify at third base and first base in most leagues, even though he will primarily DH this season, so he has versatility for his fantasy owners. And even with the injury woes over the last two years, Blalock has actually had his power and slugging percentage come back. Over the 466 AB's in the last two years, Blalock has slugged .524 with 22 homers, with a .289 average as well. There's upside here for 20-25 homers and 90 RBI while batting cleanup on a run-scoring team. Blalock may not ever approach his 2003-2004 numbers, but he could prove to be a steal for mixed leaguers that spend a bench spot on him, and he's worthy of starting in AL-only leagues.
The Oakland A's are looking to get back to contending status this season, and if they are going to do it, they need solid contributions from their young pitchers, especially with the iffy status of Justin Duchscherer. Joey Devine has an injury history even at a young age, and his arm is already barking at him this spring, so he's getting too much hype for my taste. I think a true sleeper on this team is Brett Anderson. Anderson might be the best left-handed pitching prospect in all of baseball (I don't really consider David Price a prospect anymore), and actually has an outside chance to break camp in the rotation. Duchscherer seems likely to start the season on the DL, and there are probably two open spots in the rotation as it stands right now. Even if Anderson opens the season in the minors, he's a good bench stashee in deep leagues, and he's absolutely a gem for keeper league owners. Anderson averaged 10 strikeouts per 9 innings over two minor league levels last season, and the strikeouts would almost certainly come early on in the big leagues as well. And the Oakland pitching environment is one that is conducive to excellence, with McAfee Coliseum being so tough to hit home runs in and with all of the foul territory the park has. I also like Trevor Cahill as an upside sleeper pick for this team, but due to the excellent keeper league potential of Anderson, he's my choice here. Anderson needs to be owned in all keeper leagues and certainly in all AL-only leagues.
Lefty Erik Bedard of the Seattle Mariners was vastly overvalued last season. I can't stress that enough. Former GM Bill Bavasi gave up far too much to get him, he had never thrown 200 innings in a season, and yet he was expected to be a Johan Santana-like pitcher last season, even in fantasy circles. Bedard, perhaps predictably, didn't throw anything close to 200 innings last year and the Seattle season unraveled completely. But you know something? This year, I think he's undervalued. Considering the price he's likely to go for, which is a late-round pick in mixed leagues, he's well worth the gamble. Fantasy baseball is about value, and a player could be somebody to avoid one year and somebody to feel free to gamble on the next. While Bedard is always going to be an injury risk, if you really look at the figures from last year his performance was not bad. The stuff was still there, as in his 81 innings he struck out 72 batters and only gave up 70 hits while posting a 3.67 ERA. Even though the Mariners probably won't be very good this season, Safeco Field is a good park for pitchers, so Bedard's ERA is likely to remain low. Bedard is also a free agent at season's end, so the motivation will be huge for him to pitch a lot of innings and land a big contract in the offseason. If he can merely throw 160 innings, he will outperform his draft position and auction value for sure. I'm projecting 170 innings, 150 K's, a 3.65 ERA, and 12-8 record. That would be well worth it for AL-only leaguers and for sure, deserving of a bench spot on mixed league rosters too.
So who's undervalued, flying-under-the-radar, or has tremendous upside potential for the Halos this season? My best choice here is Kelvim Escobar, who is largely being forgotten due to his past injury woes and the fact that he missed all of last season. As I've said before, when you are constructing your bench, it's always good to spend your last pick or two on players that, if things broke right, could excel. High upside picks. Picks that, if they don't pan out, don't hurt your team. I think Escobar is just that. When Escobar has been healthy, he's pitched like a #2 starter. Just two seasons ago, in 2007, Escobar was a sparkling 18-7 in 30 starts with a great 3.40 ERA, adding 160 K's in 195 innings. And in 2006, also in 30 starts, Escobar's ERA was 3.61, with 147 K's in 189 innings (his record was 11-14, illustrating just how volatile won-loss records can be). His WHIP was under 1.3 both years, which isn't great but pretty solid. I feel pretty good recommending Escobar as a late flier because reports on his recovery in Angels camp are good. Before Spring Training, Angels officials would've been happy with a July return for Escobar. But he appears to be so far ahead of that timetable that he could be back in the Angels rotation by late May, if all goes well. His fastball apparently is already in the low-90's in bullpen sessions, and he's not far from appearing in games. If Escobar does make it back before June, you could have a potential #2 starter for 2/3 of the season. That's well worth gambling a late pick on.
When you think of the Texas Rangers, you know you can't recommend any pitchers, so that leads me to their hitters. There's enough hype surrounding Nelson Cruz and especially Chris Davis that they definitely can't be considered sleepers. I think Elvis Andrus could hurt your team's batting average so I can't recommend him, either, even with the SB potential he has. That leads me to Hank Blalock. Blalock now has the reputation of being an injury-prone player, and as such his value has diminished considerably. Let's take a look at what we know. Blalock is still only 28 years old, so physically, he's just entering his prime. He burst onto the scene in 2003 at age 22, slugging .522 and hitting 29 homers. Then in 2004 he slugged .500 and mashed 32 homers. But in 2005 and 2006, while getting full-time AB's, his slugging percentage dropped to .431 and then to .401, and his homers dropped from 25 to just 16. And since his 2007 and 2008 seasons were injury-marred, with only a total of 466 AB's, Blalock is largely being written off. Due to the injury concerns you can't invest highly in him, obviously, but I think that there's reason for optimism for Blalock this season if you look closely at the facts. First off, Blalock is in a great spot if he stays healthy and in the lineup. Against righties, he is slated to bat cleanup behind Josh Hamilton, and will still probably hit fifth against lefties (or at worst sixth). The cleanup hitter for the Rangers almost automatically has solid value. Next, Blalock will qualify at third base and first base in most leagues, even though he will primarily DH this season, so he has versatility for his fantasy owners. And even with the injury woes over the last two years, Blalock has actually had his power and slugging percentage come back. Over the 466 AB's in the last two years, Blalock has slugged .524 with 22 homers, with a .289 average as well. There's upside here for 20-25 homers and 90 RBI while batting cleanup on a run-scoring team. Blalock may not ever approach his 2003-2004 numbers, but he could prove to be a steal for mixed leaguers that spend a bench spot on him, and he's worthy of starting in AL-only leagues.
The Oakland A's are looking to get back to contending status this season, and if they are going to do it, they need solid contributions from their young pitchers, especially with the iffy status of Justin Duchscherer. Joey Devine has an injury history even at a young age, and his arm is already barking at him this spring, so he's getting too much hype for my taste. I think a true sleeper on this team is Brett Anderson. Anderson might be the best left-handed pitching prospect in all of baseball (I don't really consider David Price a prospect anymore), and actually has an outside chance to break camp in the rotation. Duchscherer seems likely to start the season on the DL, and there are probably two open spots in the rotation as it stands right now. Even if Anderson opens the season in the minors, he's a good bench stashee in deep leagues, and he's absolutely a gem for keeper league owners. Anderson averaged 10 strikeouts per 9 innings over two minor league levels last season, and the strikeouts would almost certainly come early on in the big leagues as well. And the Oakland pitching environment is one that is conducive to excellence, with McAfee Coliseum being so tough to hit home runs in and with all of the foul territory the park has. I also like Trevor Cahill as an upside sleeper pick for this team, but due to the excellent keeper league potential of Anderson, he's my choice here. Anderson needs to be owned in all keeper leagues and certainly in all AL-only leagues.
Lefty Erik Bedard of the Seattle Mariners was vastly overvalued last season. I can't stress that enough. Former GM Bill Bavasi gave up far too much to get him, he had never thrown 200 innings in a season, and yet he was expected to be a Johan Santana-like pitcher last season, even in fantasy circles. Bedard, perhaps predictably, didn't throw anything close to 200 innings last year and the Seattle season unraveled completely. But you know something? This year, I think he's undervalued. Considering the price he's likely to go for, which is a late-round pick in mixed leagues, he's well worth the gamble. Fantasy baseball is about value, and a player could be somebody to avoid one year and somebody to feel free to gamble on the next. While Bedard is always going to be an injury risk, if you really look at the figures from last year his performance was not bad. The stuff was still there, as in his 81 innings he struck out 72 batters and only gave up 70 hits while posting a 3.67 ERA. Even though the Mariners probably won't be very good this season, Safeco Field is a good park for pitchers, so Bedard's ERA is likely to remain low. Bedard is also a free agent at season's end, so the motivation will be huge for him to pitch a lot of innings and land a big contract in the offseason. If he can merely throw 160 innings, he will outperform his draft position and auction value for sure. I'm projecting 170 innings, 150 K's, a 3.65 ERA, and 12-8 record. That would be well worth it for AL-only leaguers and for sure, deserving of a bench spot on mixed league rosters too.
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