Saturday Notes

Here's what the Fantasy Leprechaun has on the brain, on a Saturday that saw The Detroit Red Wings inch closer to yet another Stanley Cup...

• I've been saying that Jon Lester has been pitching fine and has simply been the unfortunate sufferer of some bad luck, and in his last two starts Lester has been dominant. The lefty flirted with perfection tonight, and ended up with a complete game victory, allowing just one run on 2 hits, while striking out 11 batters. His ERA is now down to 5.09, and I expect that number to continue to shrink while Lester is one of the best pitchers in the game for the last 4 months of the season.

• What is going on with Brad Lidge? He blew his second save in as many days today (though, to be fair, his blown save last night was Pedro Feliz's fault), and now has a whopping six blown saves on the season. The Phillies still have a 32-22 record and lead the NL East, so it hasn't cost them horribly, but it's getting really close to the point where Charlie Manuel is going to have to remove him from the closer role, at least for a mental break. (This could be a situation where the team just puts Lidge on the DL for a while, so that he officially doesn't lose the closer role, but, rather, is "injured" and unvailable.) Ryan Madson, who is dominating, simply has to be owned in NL-only formats and even in some mixed league formats, too.
  

• He didn't get the win today, but David Price allowed just one earned run in 5 2/3 innings at Bandbox Field against the Yankees, taking a no-decision. Anytime you can do that at that Little League field, you've done something. After a shaky first outing, Price has responded nicely and now holds a 2.45 ERA. It should be interesting to see what the Rays do when Scott Kazmir returns to health, assuming he does this season. Jeff Niemann has actually come on lately, and he's outpitching Andy Sonnanstine, the presumptive fourth starter. They couldn't possibly send Price back down, could they? (They better not!)

• Speaking of the Yankees, and the absurd factor that their home ballpark is playing, check out the following slugging percentage numbers. Johnny Damon, with a career .438 mark, is slugging .539 this season. Mark Teixeira, with a career .544 mark, is at .618 this season. Jorge Posada? Career mark of .480, and is at .606 this year. Robinson Cano? Career mark of .470, and is at .489 this year. Nick Swisher? Career mark of .456, and is at .512 this year. What about Melky Cabrera? Career mark of .383, and is at .474 this year. Even Hideki Matsui, hitting with two shredded knees, has a slugging mark one point higher than his career numbers (career at .478, this year at .479; and consider that last year Matsui slugged only .424). The park is helping left-handed hitters or switch hitters (like Teixeira and Posada) enormously, and this is something that you should remember going into fantasy drafts and auctions next season, provided that the team doesn't move the fences back. Even Derek Jeter, who, like Matsui, has similar slugging percentage numbers this year as opposed to the rest of his career, has raised his slugging percentage 54 points from last season. The only member of the Yankee lineup that has a lower slugging percentage this year than he did last year is Alex Rodriguez, and he has the excuse of playing on a bad hip.
  

• What in the name of Ben Zobrist has gotten into Ben Zobrist? Zobrist, now an everyday player in the wake of the Iwamura and Bartlett injuries, hit his 11th homer of the season today (at Bandbox Field, imagine that), and added a triple, for good measure. Zobrist's battling line is now an absurdly good .304-.418-.681, and while that won't continue, he's certainly a must-start in all formats right now while he's this hot, especially in the middle infield positions. If you can sell high, feel free, but there's nothing wrong with enjoying a hot streak.
  

• Matt Lindstrom owners have to be gripping right about now. Summoned for a save chance today against the Giants--the easiest type of save, since it was a 5-2 game--Manager Fredi Gonzalez yanked Lindstrom with 2 outs and the bases loaded, despite the fact that no runs had scored in the inning to that point. Sure, Lindstrom had given up a hit and two walks, but if your manager is going to take you out with one out to go and you haven't given up a run yet and you lead by three runs, and the hitter coming up is right-handed, let's just say your grip on the job can't be too secure. Leo Nunez came in and allowed a two-run single (both runs charged to Lindstrom, of course), but then got the final out for his second save of the season. Nunez is not nearly as good as a guy like Ryan Madson, but he still is a must-own in NL only leagues at this point. Lindstrom's ERA is now over 6 and this move today makes it blatantly obvious that Gonzalez doesn't trust him. At all.

• Gavin Floyd signed that big-money extension that ensured financial security for the rest of his life as the season began, and he proceeded to pitch like Raymond Floyd would after that. Don't look now, though, but Floyd has rebounded quite nicely in his last 4 outings. Floyd pitched into the 7th inning today, striking out 7 and giving up just one earned run, while improving his record to 4-5. His overall numbers still aren't good, but you have to be thinking in terms of what he can do for you going forward, as a fantasy owner. Floyd is hot right now, and warrants a pickup in most mixed leagues (he's owned in 46% of Yahoo leagues at the moment). What are his numbers in his last 4 starts? Over 29 2/3 innings, Floyd has allowed just 6 earned runs, while striking out 31 batters against just 8 walks. He has lowered his ERA from a ghastly 7.71 to his current mark of 5.35, too.

• Nick Blackburn is doing his best Chien-Ming Wang imitation, circa 2007. Blackburn continues to pitch well in real baseball and give his owners solid innings in terms of his ERA, but doesn't strike out anybody and his WHIP is just decent, not great. Blackburn took a no-decision today despite pitching 7 innings of one-run ball, on 6 hits and a walk. He struck out just one, and now has just 34 K's in 76 1/3 innings. The low strikeout rate makes it virtually impossible for me to recommend Blackburn in all but the deepest of mixed leagues, but he's a very solid AL-only option thanks to his 3.30 ERA, 5-2 record, and 1.32 WHIP. I'd view Blackburn as a poor man's Kevin Slowey; Slowey is much more owned thanks to his 8-1 record and 49 K's, but they do pitch similarly, throwing strikes and letting the defense do its job.
  

• Edwin Jackson is apparently on a mission to show the Rays that they made a huge mistake in trading him away. The Rays, with great depth in their rotation, figured to move either Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine in the offseason. It's debatable if they could have received a player like Matt Joyce as a return for Sonnanstine, but it's my opinion that the Rays made a mistake here. Sonnanstine is a pitcher that quite simply isn't that good and will struggle to keep his ERA under 5 most seasons, while Jackson still had considerable upside at just 25 years old. Jackson tossed a complete-game victory against the Angels today, allowing just one run while striking out 5 batters. Jackson's numbers are probably not sustainable (he now has a 2.16 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP), but nonetheless he has the stuff to remain a very solid mixed league starter. If you can sell very high here, feel free, but don't feel like you have to move Jackson because he will crash down hard. There will be some bad starts here and there, but Jackson may have finally arrived in the bigs as a solid starter. There's too much upside for Jackson to just trade him away and get a mediocre part in return. Keep in mind, too, that pitching at Comerica Field and in the AL Central is much better for a pitcher than pitching at Tropicana Field and in the AL East, where Jackson toiled last season.

• He was bested by Jackson today, but welcome back Kelvim Escobar. Escobar looked pretty good today in his first start of the season, going 5 innings and allowing 2 runs, which both scored in the first inning. Escobar threw 92 pitches and struck out 5 batters, and should be able to go past the 100-pitch mark if he pitches effectively in his next start. His fastball velocity was consistently in the mid-90's, and his stuff looked good. Certainly Escobar should be owned in AL-only leagues, and is an acceptable wait-and-see add in deep mixed leagues. I wouldn't add him just yet in shallow mixed formats. But the upside is there.

• Matt Capps owners have to be breathing a bit easier, as the closer converted his fourth save chance in a row since taking that line drive off his pitching elbow over a week ago. Capps should be active in mixed league formats again, albeit as a mid-to-low-end #2 closer.

• The Nationals announced that Mike MacDougal is their new closer. Yep, that's right. For those truly desperate for saves in NL-only formats, I suppose you can take a stab on MacDougal, but in the words of James Ingram, I don't have the heart...to recommend him.