Thursday Notes

I'll admit I'm still a little bit in shock over the Manny Ramirez suspension, but the show must go on, and certainly there is a lot to discuss for fantasy owners other than the latest installment of Manny being Manny. And isn't it ironic--don't ya think--that Alex Rodriguez will enter the stage on the very next day after Manny left it? I know Alanis Morissette would agree with me. While A-Rod owners will want to get their guy active for tomorrow's game, let's get to the rest of the fantasy-relevant happenings of the day.

I hate to say I told you so, Cleveland, but Jeremy Sowers got lit up today (5 IP, 7 ER, and just one strikeout). Despite Aaron Laffey's three innings of relief that resulted in a save yesterday, the logic of putting your second-best starting pitcher in the bullpen--and yes, that's what Laffey is on that Cleveland staff at the moment--and replacing him in the rotation with a guy that isn't very good is just plain dumb and reeks of extreme desperation. It's an even less logical decision than if the Yankees put Joba Chamberlain in their bullpen, because the Indians are short on starters and relievers. They basically tried to shore up one leak, but they just sprung another. I can't recommend Sowers except in the right matchup in AL-only leagues (such as a game in a pitcher's park against a bad offense), and I would definitely hold onto Laffey in AL-only formats, because he'll be back in the rotation soon enough, I can almost guarantee you. You just saw what happened to Bob Melvin, Eric Wedge. I have a feeling you're going to be next, quite frankly.

I wrote a small post on Juan Pierre earlier today, and tonight he showed why he should be on all mixed league rosters for the next 50 games. I wrote that Pierre should be good for 2-3 steals per week, and, sure enough, he stole a base tonight (along with going 2-for-4). Since he's been mostly riding the pine, you have to figure that he is going to run at every opportunity right now, because he has fresh legs and he probably wants to prove a point (if not to the Dodgers, then to another team that might view him as an acquisition via trade). Plus, as I've said many times on this blog, Joe Torre is a manager that likes to give the green light to his speed players on the bases. Pierre isn't likely to score 30-35 runs in the next 50 games since he won't be in the leadoff spot (except on days that Rafael Furcal gets a rest, which is about once a week), but he could score about 25 runs and steal about 20 bases in the next 50 games.

And by the way, if you think my steals prediction is too high for Pierre, the Fantasy Leprechaun has some statistical evidence for you. In 2007, Pierre's last year as a regular, he played in all 162 games, had 668 AB's, and stole 64 bases. Last year, despite just 375 AB's in a part-time role, he swiped 40 bases, which means he actually ran at a more frenetic pace than in 2007. The 668 AB's in 162 games works out to 4.12 AB's per game (I'm using that because this is the last year his at-bats were on a regular, everyday basis, which is what he will have in the next 50 games); since he's not leading off, we can call it an even 4 AB's per game for him in the next 50 games. That means he should get about 200 AB's over the next 50 games; and 200 is 53% of 375 (his AB total from last year), so 53% of 40 steals (his SB total last year) is 21.3 steals. So there you go. What I'm trying to tell you, basically, is that if you pick up Pierre, it will be like owning a player that would hit around .300 and steal 65-70 bases if he played a full season. A poor man's Carl Crawford for nearly 1/3 of a season, if you will (and there's always the chance he remains a starter after early July, either if the Manny story doesn't go away or if Pierre gets traded). Unless you get docked points for each time Pierre hits a grounder back to the pitcher, Pierre is a must-add in mixed leagues. Jump on board if you need to add stolen bases to your team's mix.

A day after big brother Jeff picked up a win, Jered Weaver did the same tonight, and did so even more impressively. The younger Weaver pitched his first complete-game in the big leagues, and the only blemish in his 9 innings of 3-hit, 1-run ball was a solo homer to Aaron Hill. Weaver fanned 8 batters without issuing a single walk, too. He now holds a 3-1 record, 2.66 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and a solid 31-9 K-BB ratio in 40 2/3 innings. Last year Weaver should have done better than his 4.33 ERA, considering his 1.28 WHIP and .254 batting average against. If he pitches like he did last year, he probably would end up with an ERA of about half-a-run lower this season; with some improvement, we could be looking at an ERA of 3.5 or so. My best guess is an ERA of about 3.75 for Weaver this season, with a WHIP of about 1.20 and 150 K's in 200 innings, numbers that are surely mixed league-worthy. I can't see Weaver as being an ace for fantasy owners, though, so feel free to try to sell high after his great effort tonight.

The Yankee starting catchers are dropping like flies. After losing Jorge Posada to a hamstring injury, the Bombers are going to have to deal with his replacement, Jose Molina, also being shelved. Molina came up with a quad injury tonight and is expected to be placed on the DL tomorrow. This means that the team is going to be forced to call up Kevin Cash to share time with the recently called-up Francisco Cervelli, and neither of these two should be anywhere near your fantasy squad. It should also be interesting to see how this affects the Yankee starting pitchers.

Speaking of the Yankees, the latest game at Bandbox Field saw 8 home runs hit between the home team and the Rays, and the point bears repeating: you need to upgrade all the hitters in games there and downgrade all the pitchers. Mariano Rivera even gave up two home runs tonight, and that happens about as often as a Saturday Night Live re-run showing a moment of comic genius from Horatio Sanz. (Go ahead, think about that one for a moment.) While I wouldn't get up in arms over Rivera's struggles in the past week--his ERA is still under 4, he has struck out 17 batters in 11 1/3 innings with no walks, and he's only blown one save--it is a bit disconcerting that he has now allowed 4 home runs on the young season. How many did he give up all of last year? Four. How many did he give up in 2007? Four. It's also a little troubling that Joe Girardi said after the game that his surgically-repaired right shoulder has been bothering him a little bit. Again, though, since he is striking out batters with great frequency, I would tend to give the great Rivera the benefit of the doubt here, at least for now. Don't panic, Rivera owners, even if he needs to miss a few games or if he requires a DL stint (although a DL stint could be disastrous for that Yankee bullpen).

If you would have told me at the start of the season that a pitching matchup of Brian Bannister and Jarrod Washburn would see one earned run in a combined 13 innings between the two, I would have said you were crazy, or perhaps smoking the hippie lettuce. But that's exactly what happened today, as Bannister improved to 3-0 with 6 shutout innings, lowering his ERA to 1.48 on the season. Washburn allowed just one earned run in 7 innings, lowering his ERA to 2.68, although he suffered the hard-luck loss to drop to 3-2 on the season. Bannister even struck out 7 batters, while Washburn fanned 5. I don't know how this is happening for both pitchers--especially for Bannister--and I implore you to try to sell high on both of these guys while you have the chance. Again, especially on Bannister. Washburn could actually have decent AL-only league value this season. I don't expect Bannister to. I know Bannister had a good 2007 campaign, but I simply don't see it for him. If you're able to get a serviceable piece in a trade for Bannister, you'll thank me later, because he'll get shelled eventually, and it will probably be sooner rather than later.

Another Royal, Coco Crisp, is having a solid start to the season despite a .238 average through 28 games. Crisp has drawn 21 walks (against 14 K's), for an OBP of .367, and that's the biggest reason he's scored 22 runs. He's also making his hits count, as 14 of his 25 hits have gone for extra-bases. He's doing well in the SB department, too, as he stole his fifth base of the year tonight. Crisp is on a pace to score well over 100 runs and to steal about 30 bases, and as a Crisp owner in an AL-only league, I'd certainly take both of those numbers. It's also likely that Crisp's current .238 average will rise into the .270 range by season's end, at least. Crisp warrants consideration in all but shallow mixed leagues (he's available in 70% of Yahoo leagues), and his AL-only value is Bob Seger-esque. Like a rock.

The Franklin Mint was at it again tonight; Ryan Franklin notched his 9th save in as many chances with remarkable ease. He merely needed 9 pitches to retire the side in order, with one strikeout. His ERA is still a perfect 0.00, and I actually think I'd be more confident owning Franklin than I would Brian Fuentes. While that may seem obvious to some, three weeks ago that would have been an insane statement. I've bumped Franklin up to high-end #2 closer status, and he actually has the upside for 40 saves this year considering the team he plays for.

I advised to buy low on Matt Holliday a few days ago while his numbers still looked feeble, and he smashed a three-run homer today, his fourth home run in his last 10 games. Holliday is only batting .233, but in his last 10 games he has 10 RBI to go along with the 4 homers. He's up to 4 homers and 20 RBI on the season, which puts him on a pace to hit about 25 homers and to have about 120 RBI (remember that he missed a couple of games due to illness early in the season). Continue to view Holliday as a #2 OF in mixed leagues and target him in trades.

Are you looking for a catcher to add, Jorge Posada owners? If you don't see an obvious choice on the waiver wire, perhaps you should consider Ramon Hernandez, who is 76% available in Yahoo leagues. Hernandez's .280 average looks empty, considering that he has just one home run, 8 RBI, and 6 runs scored, but a closer look reveals a guy really locked in lately. Hernandez was batting .175 on April 22, but since then he has had multi-hit games in 6 of his last 11 starts, and recorded at least one hit in 10 of those 11 starts. (He was 2-for-3 today.) Hernandez is a pretty decent hitter, and on a hot streak, and in a home ballpark conducive to hitters, so he's a recommended add for Posada owners searching for options in mixed leagues.

Alexei Ramirez has temporarily been benched in favor of Jayson Nix at shortstop for the White Sox, and Nix had a home run in today's win over the Tigers. Ramirez has started the season about as badly as possible, but don't overreact if you own him and waive him. He still has six steals on the season, and eventually he will start hitting. There aren't going to be solid waiver wire options at shortstop or second base that have even close to his upside. Just be patient with him, stash him on your bench until Guillen puts him back into the lineup, and roll with him once he gets going again. I had been benching Ramirez in one of my leagues at second base in favor of Freddy Sanchez (and now I just picked up Rickie Weeks and waived Sanchez; Weeks shouldn't be available in mixed leagues, but he was in this league), and I will just play Weeks for as long as Ramirez remains benched and/or ineffective. Hopefully, you have a decent alternative at shortstop or second base for Ramirez.