Non-Obvious Predictions Revisited

I thought it would be fun to take a look at the article I wrote back on April 3, where I posted some predictions for the upcoming season that were a little bit out on a limb. After all, a column predicting that Albert Pujols would hit .330 isn't exactly showing skill. I'll go over each prediction, and then give a brief discussion of each as to how that prediction is looking right now.

Jason Motte will have more K's than any reliever in baseball...Oops! This one is failing miserably, as Motte's 10 strikeouts only trail leader Jonathan Broxton by 22.

Tommy Hanson will get called up and be inserted into the Atlanta rotation by June 1...Well, there's only 11 days left for that to happen, but even if I miss my deadline, I do think there's a good chance he'll get the call sometime in June. Jo-Jo Reyes hasn't worked out, and Tom Glavine is a setback away from not being able to contribute.

Ian Stewart will be an everyday player for the Rockies by June 1...Looks like I've hit on this one. Stewart was starting a few times a week up until last week, and now he's taken over for the slumping Garret Atkins as the regular third baseman. Atkins will likely be worked back into the mix, but Stewart can still garner starts at second base and the outfield.

Justin Upton will hit more homers than his brother B.J., and it won't be close...So far, so good. Justin has 7 bombs, while B.J. has just 2.

Adam "Don't Call Me Pacman" Jones will steal 25 bases...While Jones is only on pace for about 15 steals, I don't think his owners will complain about what he's doing, considering that he's the 14th-ranked player in Yahoo leagues at the moment.

The catcher that finishes with the most HR's will be Chris Iannetta...I'm in decent position here, as Iannetta's 7 homers are just one behind current leader Bengie Molina.

Cliff Lee won't be able to keep his ERA under 4...I could miss on this one, but there's a long way to go. Lee was dreadful in his first two starts but has been otherwise excellent, and his ERA is all the way down to 2.90 right now. The jury's still out, but barring injury I'd probably have to bet that I'll get this one wrong.

Joey Votto will outproduce Derrek Lee...Piece of cake.

Felix Hernandez will finish with a lower ERA and have more K's than CC Sabathia...This could still happen, although CC has been great of late and Felix has hit a little rough patch. King Felix is 12 K's ahead of CC, but CC's 3.43 ERA is better than Felix's 4.13 mark. I still like my chances on this one.

Alexi Casilla will be the cheapest 20 SB option based on average draft position...Casilla, and I, failed miserably on this one, no question.

Jensen Lewis will finish with at least 10 saves...Even though Lewis only has 1 save so far, this one has a chance. Kerry Wood has an ERA of over 8, and hasn't looked like he did last season at all. And all it takes is a Wood injury for me to possibly hit on this one.

Matt LaPorta will replace Ben Francisco as the Indians' starting LF by the All-Star Break...This one also has a chance. LaPorta has already been called up, and Francisco is sporting a less-than-inspiring .722 OPS in 112 AB's. And with the Indians completely spinning their wheels, they could give LaPorta a starting gig soon, if they are already looking ahead to 2010.

Mike Aviles will outproduce Derek Jeter...I really missed on this one. Injury or no injury for Aviles, this was a flat-out miss.

Billy Butler will hit .300 and hit 20 HR...Butler will need to do a bit better, but his current .285 average and current 3 HR total make it possible for him to hit these numbers. I'm probably more confident he can hit .300 than I am he will reach 20 homers, but it's certainly possible he can reach both, still.

Matt Garza will lead the Tampa Bay staff in wins and ERA...This one certainly has a chance, as Garza has a 3.50 ERA and 4 wins. At the moment, James Shields' ERA is just a fraction lower.

Phil Hughes will throw 100 innings for the Yankees this season...This one is looking dim, since Hughes has thrown 16 2/3 disappointing innings so far with the big club, and since Chien-Ming Wang is about to return to the rotation. Hughes would need another injury by a Yankee starter to have a chance to reach this mark, and he would have to do better than an ERA of over 7.

Nick Swisher will overtake Xavier Nady as the Yankee right fielder...I hit on that one, no doubt, Nady injury or not.

Felix Pie won't hit, and as a result Ty Wigginton will get at least 400 AB's and hit at least 20 HR...So far, this is a yes and no. Pie, indeed, hasn't hit, posting a feeble .203 average in 79 AB's. Wigginton, though, despite totaling 119 AB's (partly due to the Melvin Mora injury earlier in the season), has hit only two homers. There's still time for Ty, but the odds are against him reaching 20 homers at this point.

OK, so that's it. Of the 18 predictions I made, I think you'd have to say I'm faring decently. Of the 18, only 3 have been flat-out misses (Motte, Casilla, and Aviles), and I think I'm in good shape to hit on at least 9 of them. That's a pretty good mark, since these were non-obvious predictions, after all. I'm sure I'll take a look at this again as the season marches on.